Fallacies of a Hydrogen Economy

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Fallacies of a Hydrogen Economy
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2006 Byron Short LectureUniversity of Texas at
Austin

• Dr. Frank Kreith

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• Let us set as our national goal in the spirit of
  Apollo, with the determination of the Manhattan
  Project, that by the end of this decade we will
  have developed the potential to meet our own
  energy needs without depending on any foreign
  energy source.
• President Richard Nixon, November 7, 1973

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In response to President Nixons vision of U.S.
energy independence, the National Academy
recommended in 1978

• Conservation
• Synthetic fuels from coal
• Effective use of coal and nuclear power to
  produce electricity
• Use of solar energy for low temperature heat

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All the basic science funding in the world will
have no positive effect on the well being of our
nation if the research is not carried out within
a system that can effectively digest and apply
the results.
George E. Brown, Jr., Chair of the House
Committee on Science, Space and Technology
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Principal Energy Needs of Society in 21st Century

• Heat
• Fuel
• Electricity

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Energy Projection

• 1956 Edward Teller Nuclear will be too cheap to
  meter.
• 1973 President Nixon By 1980, we will be self
  sufficient and not need foreign energy.
• 1978 President Carter In 20 years, 20 of our
  energy will be from solar.
• 1980 President Reagan Alaska has a greater oil
  reserve than Saudi Arabia.
• 2003 President Bush The first car driven by a
  child born today could be powered by hydrogen.

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History of Hydrogen

• 1766 Henry Cavendish isolates hydrogen from the
  reaction iron- sulfuric acid
• 1781 A.L. Lavoirsier names hydrogen for maker
  of water.
• 1783 Montgolfier brothers launch a hydrogen
  balloon in France.
• 1820 Michael Faraday generates hydrogen by
  electrolysis
• 1839 W.R. Grove demonstrates fuel cell to
  generate electricity.
• 1870 Jules Verne states in his novel The
  Mysterious Island that hydrogenwill
  furnish an inexhaustible source of heat
• 1871 Nikolaus Otto uses a 50 hydrogen mixture
  to run an automobile engine
• 1937 Hindenburg zeppelin explodes at Lakehurst.
• 1973 Engineers all over the world investigate
  thermochemical cycles for hydrogen
  production with nuclear reactors.
• 1981 R. Shinnar et al show that thermo-chemical
  cycles for hydrogen production are inferior
  to electrolysis.
• 2002 DOE prepares a National Hydrogen Energy
  Roadmap

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In 2003, the National Academy concluded that the
vision of a hydrogen economy is based on two
expectations

• Domestic production of H2 can be affordable and
  environmentally benign
• H2 applications can be competitive in the market
  with alternatives

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DOE Year 2030 Vision of Pathways to Hydrogen
Production and Use
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Comparison of Electrolysis with Thermochemical
Hydrogen Production
H2 O2
Primary Energy Source e.g. Fission, Fusion, Solar
H2 O2
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Two Hydrogen Production Options

• Reforming of H2 rich fossil fuel such as natural
  gas (CH4). Well developed chemical technology,
  efficient and inexpensive.
• Electrolysis of water (H2O) separation of
  hydrogen by means of electric current. Well
  developed technology, needs electric power. Cost
  is three times that of reforming. Could use
  renewable source.

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Producing Electricity with Fuel Cell
Present technology Advanced Technology
2.9 kWh 1.9 kWh
70 efficient 80 efficient
50 efficient 65 efficient
1 kWh 1kWh
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Diagram of a Lead-Acid Cell

• 1800 Alessandra Volta describes first operating
  battery. Anode (negative pole) releases
  electrons which pass through an external circuit
  to the cathode, (positive pole). Poles are
  immersed in an electrolyte.

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Hydrogen-Oxygen Fuel Cell

• Discovered by William Grove in 1839

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Fuel Cells of Current Technical Interest
Type Abbreviation Operating Temperature
Polymer electrolyte fuel cell PEFC 80ºC
Alkaline fuel cell AFC 100ºC
Phosphoric acid fuel cell PAFC 200ºC
Molten carbonate fuel cell MCFC 650ºC
Solid oxide fuel cell SOFC 1000ºC
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Well-to-Electric Grid Efficiency for Direct NG
and Steam Reformed Hydrogen Paths
Natural Gas, S.R. Hydrogen,
Production 95 95
Conversion to H2 n/a 78
Distribution (with H2 compression) 95 92
Conversion to electricity (Turbine or Fuel Cell) 55 50
Overall Efficiency 50 34
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Efficiency of Direct Solar PV and PV Hydrogen
Path to Electricity
Direct PV, PV-Hydrogen,
Solar Conversion to Electricity 15 15
Electrolysis to H2 n/a 78
Distribution (with H2 compression) n/a 92
Fuel Cell to electricity n/a 50
Distribution 95 n/a
Overall Efficiency 14 5
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Well-to-Electric Grid Efficiency for Direct
Nuclear and Nuclear - H2 Paths
Nuclear, Hydrogen,
Production 90 90
Conversion to Electricity 36 36
Electrolysis to H2 n/a 78
Distribution (with H2 compression) 95 92
Fuel Cell for H2 to electricity n/a 50
Overall Efficiency 31 12
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HydricityIdaho National Laboratory
AC Electricity-H2-AC Electricity Loopreturns
only 1/4th of the original AC Electricity
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Comparison of Energy Carriers
Hydrogen Efficiency ()
Now Limit
Electrolytic Generation of H2 74 85
Compression 92 92
Fuel Cell Conversion to Electricity 60 70
Overall Efficiency 40 55
Electricity
Storage (CAES, PWS, Battery) 75-80 85
Transmission Loss per 100 km
H2 Friction Loss in a Pipeline 0.8
Electric Transmission Loss 0.6
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Compressed Air Electricity Storage System (CAES)
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Conclusion

• Unless future RD can demonstrate economical and
  safe production of hydrogen direct uses of fossil
  sources, nuclear fuel or renewable technologies
  are more efficient than using hydrogen by any
  currently available pathway to generate heat and
  electricity
• For the foreseeable future conservation in
  buildings and industry, increase efficiency and
  use of renewables in electricity production,
  synthetic fuels and improved mileage in
  transportation offer a more secure energy future
  than the hydrogen economy.

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Hydrogen Production not Utilizing Fossil Fuels,
Thermolysis or Electrolysis
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Transportation Crisis

• 97 of U.S. ground transportation is petroleum
  based, and in 2003, 53 of the oil consumed was
  imported.
• After housing, transportation is the largest
  budget item for the average U.S. household,
  larger than food or healthcare.
• Urban sprawl and lack of public transport make
  automobiles a necessity in the USA

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U.S. Oil Production vs. Time
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World Oil Production vs. Time
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• A simple chemical reaction between hydrogen and
  oxygen generates energy, which can be used to
  power a car producing only water, not exhaust
  fumesthe first car driven by a child born today
  could be powered by hydrogen and pollution free.
  
• President George W. Bush , State of the Union
  Address, 2003

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More Companies are hopping on the hydrogen fuel
cell bandwagon
2003
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Brief History of Electric Vehicles

• 1900
• 4200 Automobiles were sold
• 40 were steam powered
• 38 were electric powered
• 22 were gasoline powered
• 1905
• Electric Vehicle with Edison Battery wins 1000
  mile endurance run

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• 1990 California low Emission Vehicle Program
  (LEV) mandates that al least 2 of vehicles sold
  by each automaker have zero tailpipe emission by
  year 1998.
• 1991 1998 Automakers tested and promoted EVs,
  state agencies bought EVs and alternative fuel
  vehicles.

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1999 2000 CARB removes EV mandate and
automakers stop production of EVs.
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Learn from the mistakes of others. You wont
live long enough to make them all yourself.Yogi
Berra
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Well-to-Wheel Efficiency Analysis
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Ground transportation technology options

• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)
• Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs)
• High Efficiency Diesel Vehicles
• Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs)
• Public Transportation
• Telecommuting
• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

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Well-to-Wheel Efficiency of Transportation
Technologies
Vehicle Drive Technology Fuel Well-to Wheel Efficiency,
Hybrid SI Natural gas (NG) 32
Hybrid Diesel Natural gas Fischer Tropsch (FT) 32
Fuel cell electric motor Hydrogen from NG 27
Hybrid SI Hydrogen from NG 22
Conventional diesel Natural gas FT 22
Battery electric motor Electricity from natural gas combined cycle 21
Conventional SI Natural gas 19
Fuel cell electric motor Methanol 16
Conventional SI Hydrogen from NG 14
Fuel cell electric motor Hydrogen (Electrolysis) 13
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Well-to-Wheel Efficiency of Fuel-Cell Vehicle
with Hydrogen Produced by Electrolysis

• NG Feedstock Production Efficiency 95
• Conversion Efficiency (NG to electricity) 55
• Electrolysis Efficiency (electricity to H2) 63
• Storage and Transmission 97
• Compression Efficiency 87
• Overall Efficiency of Fuel Production 30
• Total Fuel-Cell Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
• (0.28 x 0.445 x 1.1 x 0.9) 13

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Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costsa Transportation
ConsumerThree Times More Than Nuclear Electricity
Using 3-3.5 /kWh as a placeholder price (note
being associated with AP1000-Rankine and claimed
by VHTGR-Brayton).
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Hydrogen Infrastructure Cost(Transportation
Technology Center of Argonne National Laboratory)

• Assuming a fuel economy improvement for hydrogen
  FCV to 2.5 times of current conventional
  vehicles, (i.e. about 50 mpg) and a market
  penetration of 2 HFCV in 2020 and 12 in 2030,
  the cost is
• 60 billion in 2020
• 170 billion in 2030
• If 40 of fleet is to be HFCV in 2030, minimum
  cost is 320 billion, but may be as high as 600
  billion.

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• Making predictions is tricky especially about
  the future.
• -Yogi Berra

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Hydrogen is the Fuel of the Future

• And it will always remain so

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Epilogue

• Are there alternatives to a Hydrogen Economy?

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Stopping population growth is a necessary
condition for the success of any proposed long
range energy policy.
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World Oil Production per Capita vs. Time
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Electricity Generation

• Coal-fired Power Plants with CO2 Sequestration
• Cost 5-7 c/kwh1
• Nuclear Power Plants with Safe Long Term Storage
• Cost 6-8 c/kwh1
• Solar Thermal Power Plants with Sensible Heat
  Storage
• Cost 5-9 c/kwh1
• Wind Turbines with Compressed Air Storage
• Cost 4-8 c/kwh2
• Ref. 1 Sustainable Energy by J.W. Tester et al.
  MIT Press 2005
• Ref. 2 Estimates from Colorado PUC Hearing by
  Personal Communications

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Transportation

• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• With Metal-Hydride or Lithium Ion Batteries and
  Off-Peak Charging.
• Levelized Cost Effective over 8-10 years.
• (EPRI Study, 2003 70-80 gpm)
• Synthetic Fuels
• Diesel by Fischer-Tropsch Process from Coal
  (SASOL)
• Ethanol from Sugar Cane, Cost-effective in Brazil
• Ethanol from Switschgrass, Proposed by President
  George W. Bush, needs more RD.

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A Final Word of Caution

• Anyone who believes that one can have exponential
  growth in a finite world is either a madman or an
  economist.
• Kenneth Boulding