The Demographic Transition Model

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The Demographic Transition Model

• and the
• Fertility Transition Theory

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• Conceived by Frank Notestein 1945.
• Model of population change based upon effects of
  economic development.
• Based on the experience of the Western world, it
  was used for decades as a model to predict what
  should/would happen to developing countries
  eventually.
• All countries pass through four or five stages to
  a state of maturity.

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http//www.uwec.edu/Academic/Geography/Ivogeler/w1
11/demmodel.htm
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Stage 1 High steady birth rates and high but
fluctuating death rates. Therefore, high natural
increase rate. Two rates are approximately
equal. The death rate fluctuates due to war and
disease. Low income, agricultural society. Stage
2 Dramatic decline in death rates high birth
rates. Onset of industrialization and related
health and medical advances.
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http//www.uwec.edu/Academic/Geography/Ivogeler/w1
11/demmodel.htm
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Stage 3 Low death rates declining birth rates,
due to voluntary decisions to reduce family size
aided by improved contraception. Related to
improved standard of living. Natural increase
rate falls. Stage 4 Low steady death and birth
rates. Low natural increase rate, similar to
Stage 1. Stage 5 Low death rates declining
birth rates.
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http//www.uwec.edu/Academic/Geography/Ivogeler/w1
11/demmodel.htm
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So, in summary, the argument that is extracted
from the demographic transition model is that
since the developed countries underwent a
dramatic change that resulted in lower rates of
population growth, if only the developing nations
could do the same their fertility rates would
also fall. Development is the best form of
contraception.
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However . This demographic transition has not
occurred uniformly geographically. Some areas are
in Stage 5 and some areas are in Stage 2. Times
have changed since the developed world went
through the demographic transition.
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Therefore, can we use the demographic transition
model as a predictive tool? Can we assume that
the passage from 3rd to 4th stage will happen
over time? From the evidence of modern
experience, it seems no.
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Conditions are different. Prospects for
industrialization are questionable. Reductions in
death rates are a result in some countries of
diffusion of technology from the developed
world. Its one thing to introduce death control,
another to introduce successful ways to reduce
birth rates
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There is evidence to suggest that the fertility
rates are declining as in the 3rd and fourth
stages, but for very different reasons. This is
known as the Fertility Transition Theory.
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The Fertility Transition Theory Fertility is
declining in the less developed world at a rate
which exceeds the rate of decline that was
experienced in the developed world. It seems to
be related directly to the extent to which modern
contraceptives are employed. Formal education is
not a prerequisite for for using contraception.
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Information about contraception is widespread due
to mass media. Appeal for large families has
fallen due to rising status of women, obvious
problems associated with rapid and large
population increased for the family and the state
(e.g., pressure on agricultural land).
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In summary, the Fertility Transition Theory
asserts that while economic development can
create a climate conducive to reductions in
fertility, it is a change in cultural attitude
about large families and a willingness to use
contraception that is the key, along with the
availability of the contraception.
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In short, development is not the best form of
contraceptive rather contraceptives are the best
form of contraceptive. But what are some of the
obstacles to the more widespread use of
contraception?
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Opposition to birth control and family
planning. The manufacture and distribution and
education about their use of contraceptives is
expensive. Religion can block birth control
programs Catholic Church and some others.
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Low status of women lack of political and
economic rights lack of access to
education. Preference for male children in some
areas. Fertility rates are lower in urban
societies, and much of the developing world is
still rural.