Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

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Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem
Consequences of Climate Change

• Ecosystem Impacts Feedbacks
• Effects on Biodiversity, Invasions, Protected
  Areas
• Societal Consequences, Ecosystem Services

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Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change
Climate Change - 35,496 hits in Web of
Science Climate Change and Ecosystem(s) 5,097
hits 97 in Nature/Science, 612 Reviews
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What are likely ecosystem consequence of climate
change?

• Terrestrial Ecosystems
• Carbon
• Fire
• Phenology
• Insect defoliation
• Vegetation Communities
• Permafrost
• Coastal Ecosystems

• Marine Ecosystems
• Pelagic Systems
• Coastal Wetlands
• Mangroves/Sea Grass
• Eutrophication/Anoxia
• Algal Blooms
• Coral Reefs
• Phytoplankton Biodiversity

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Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Carbon cycle
• Very strong research, remote sensing crucial
• Fire Regimes
• Strong research, remote sensing crucial
• Phenology
• Strong research, remote sensing crucial

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Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Insect Defoliation
• Some research, remote sensing crucial
• Vegetation Community Change
• Strong modeling based research, remote sensing
  crucial for baseline
• Most work has used climate envelopes, better
  models may be necessary

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2000
2100
Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS)
output US Global Change Research Program. 2000.
Climate Change Impacts on the United States
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Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Permafrost
• Some research, remote sensing crucial
• Freshwater Lakes
• Limited research, remote sensing important
• Coastal Ecosystems
• Some research, remote sensing important

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Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Pelagic System
• Very little research, remote sensing crucial
• Estuarine and Coastal Wetlands
• Some research, innovative remote sensing required
• Mangroves, Sea Grass, and Kelp Beds
• Some research, innovative remote sensing required
• Coastal Eutrophication and Anoxia
• Some research, some remote sensing measurements

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Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Harmful Algal Blooms
• Some research, innovative remote sensing required
• Coral Reefs
• Some research, remote sensing crucial
• Ocean Acidification
• Important research, remote sensing important
• Global Phytoplanton Biodiversity / Food Webs
• Some research on functional groups, innovative
  remote sensing methods required

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What are likely consequences of climate change
for biodiversity et al.?

• Biodiversity
• Species Range Shifts and Extinctions
• Loss of Rare Ecosystems
• Protected Areas
• Native and Exotic Invasions

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Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions

• Species Range Shifts and Extinctions
• Strong modeling based research, remote sensing
  important
• Loss of Rare Ecosystems
• Some modeling based research, remote sensing
  important for baseline

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Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions

• Protected Areas
• Limited research on climate change threats,
  remote sensing important for baseline
• Invasions
• Some modeling based research, remote sensing
  important

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What are the societal consequences of climate
change?

• Ecosystem Services
• Agriculture/Forestry
• Fisheries/Aquaculature
• Water/Glaciers/Precipitation
• Pollination
• Geomorphogy
• Extreme weather events
• Urbanization
• Human Health
• Political Destabilization/Failed States

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What are the societal consequences of climate
change?

• Threatened Ecosystem Services
• Agriculture / Forestry
• Strong research, remote sensing crucial
• Fisheries / Aquaculture
• Some research using remote sensing and modeling
• Water / Precipitation
• Strong research, remote sensing important
• Pollination
• Some research, remote sensing relevant

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What are the societal consequences of climate
change?

• Extreme Events (Hurricanes etc.)
• Strong research, remote sensing crucial
• Human Health
• Some research, remote sensing role unclear
• Political Destabilization / Failed States
• Little quantitative research, remote sensing
  could play important role

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What are the most important cross-cutting
science questions?

• Interactions, Adaptations, and Mitigation
• Climate changeand society

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Adaptations
• The importance of the rates of climate change is
  largely unknown
• Rapid evolution we dont know how quickly
  species can adapt (genetically and behaviorally)
• Species ability to migrate will depend on rates
  of change

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Mitigation
• Society will attempt to mitigate climate change
• What are the ecosystem consequences of different
  mitigation measures?
• E.g.., Iron fertilization

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Overview Part I
• Biodiversity loss
• Harmful Algal Blooms
• Sea Level Rise
• Ecosystem Response to Disturbance

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Overview Part II
• Sea Ice Loss and Change of Trade Routes
• Desertification
• Land Use Change and Coastal Systems
• Protected areas, source-sink dynamics,
  biodiversity, and carbon sequestration

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Biodiversity loss
• Land use is currently more important, climate
  change will be after 2050 (or so)
• Range shifts will depend on landscape
  fragmentation
• Land use change in response to climate change may
  matter more than actual climate change

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What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?

• Interdisciplinary Land-Ocean Research
• Affects of use change on sediments and nutrients
  in estuaries and ultimately harmful algal blooms
• Climate change and increasing duststorms
  affecting algal blooms

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Where are changes most likely? Focused field
campaigns may be necessary
Lenton et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the
Earths climate system. PNAS. 1551786-1793
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Can upcoming NASA mission address these questions?

• Vegetation structure, ecosystem function, and
  species distributions
• DESDynI and HyspIRI (and ACE) are exciting and
  will be crucial
• Data continuity crucial (LDCM )
• Ready-to-use standardized data products
• Web-tools, data integration

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Is there a need for additional coordination of
research activities?

• Model Integration
• Model Web (G. Geller)
• Partnership with Science Agencies
• NIH, NSF, NOAA
• Partnership with Management Agencies and NGOs

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Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

• The major challenge will be to develop a holistic
  understanding of human-natural systems to predict
  climate change consequences