Simulations of Carbon Sequestration Potentials in Chinese Fir Forests

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Simulations of Carbon Sequestration Potentials in
Chinese Fir Forests

• Xiaohua Wei (???)
• Watershed Research Chair
• University of British Columbia
• Kelowna, BC, Canada
• June 11, 2013, Guangzhou, China

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Acknowledgement

• Dr. Juan Blanco, Universidad Pública de Navarra,
  Spain

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Outline

• Rationale and objectives
• Simulation approaches
• FORECAST model
• FORECAST application in Chinese fir forests

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Rationale (1) What is C Potential?

• Definition from Chinese Academy of Sciences (C
  Project)
• ??????????????? - ????????
• ??????????????? - ????????
• I propose
• It is the difference between sustainable C
  density and current forest density
• It is defined in a long-term and sustainable
  context
• An ecosystem model can help determine C potentials

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Rationale (2) Why Plantation Forests?

• China is facing pressure in climate change
  negotiation
• ???? 2020???????4000???,?????13????
• China is the country with the largest plantation
  forests
• A big challenge is
• Low productivity and monoculture
• For example, ????????60.05,?????????????????44.5
  limited area for more plantations
• REDD Actions forest carbon and ecosystem
  services
• In short we must find the ways to achieve high
  and sustainable C density, and other co-benefits

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Rationale (3) Why Chinese Fir Forests?

• Chinese fir is the most important commercial
  forest species
• Severe yield decline over subsequent rotations
• Thus, current practices are not sustainable with
  limited ecosystem services
• Rich data and research provide an excellent
  opportunity for modelling

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Objectives

• To use the forest ecosystem model to determine
  sustainable forest practices for maintaining high
  and sustainable forest C sequestration ability,
  while achieving other ecological benefits in
  Chinese fir forests
• To explore what C potentials can be achieved with
  the determined sustainable forest practices

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Simulation Approaches

• Historical bioassay (or yield tables) (e.g., CBM,
  FORCARB, ATLAS)
• Environmental correlation
• Process simulation (e.g., PnET, InTEC, 3PG)
• Hybrid approach (e.g., FORECAST)

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FORECAST A Hybrid Approach

• Developed by Professor Hamish Kimmins at UBC in
  1980s
• It is a stand-level ecosystem model, and has been
  applied in various world forests
• It was specially designed for assessing
  sustainability of long-term productivity under
  various forest management practices

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Current Applications in China

• Chinese fir calibration and simulation (Bi et al.
  2007)
• An international joint project between UBC and
  Zhejiang Forestry University, 2008-2011
• Spruce
• Massonia pine
• Broad-leave (??)
• N deposition and acid rain effects on C in
  Chinese fir forests
• Northeast Forestry University (948 project),2005
• Larch forests (??)
• Chinese Academy of Science (Institute of Applied
  Ecology)
• Larch forests (??)

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International Symposium of Ecosystem Modeling
Zhejiang Forestry University, September 22-24
2008, with more than 40 researchers from China
and Canada
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FORECAST Overview

• Ecologically based, stand-level model for
  simulating the effects of alternative management
  strategies on biophysical indicators of SFM

• Wide variety of stand types and management
  systems
• Uses a Hybrid simulation approach where
  historical growth data is used to parameterize
  mechanistic model
• Growth presently limited by light and nutrients
  but adding climate change capability

 www.forestry.ubc.ca/ecomodels/
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N in Soil Solution Carried to the Next Year
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FORECAST Key Features

• Empirical data on tree and plant growth
• three quality sites
• Ecosystem processes
• canopy function (photosynthesis)
• carbon allocation (nutrient availability)
• competition-related mortality
• nutrient cycling rates
• Driving function shade-corrected foliage N
  efficiency
• Nutrient feedback

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FORECAST Application Methodology

• Meta-data analysis
• To define the observed range in carbon storage in
  tropic forests
• For broadleaves 38 documents, 138 sites for
  conifers 51/ 160 sites
• Monte-Carlo simulations with FORECAST
• 200 Monte Carlo projections for traditional
  management
• 200 Monte Carlo projections for sustainable
  forest management
• Probability distributions of site quality,
  planting density, rotation length and utilization
  level were created for both of the above sets

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FORECAST Application Validation
Chinese fir
Phoebe
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FORECAST Application Simulations

• Establishing initial eco-state files
• Defining management options (rotation length,
  density, utilization level, mixture, thinning
  etc.)
• Selecting output indicators
• productivity / carbon
• decomposition litter
• available soil N and nutrient removal

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FORECAST Application Simulations
Probability distribution for scenarios
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FORECAST Application Results
Meta-data analysis
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FORECAST Application Results
Meta-data analysis
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FORECAST Application Results
Meta-data and simulations
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FORECAST Application Results
Simulations
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FORECAST Application Implications of Results

• The sustainable forestry practices can raise
  carbon stocks in 2050 by 260.22 TgC in Chinese
  fir plantation. If applied to all new plantation
  types in China, stored carbon could further
  increase by 1,482 TgC in 2050.
• Such an increase would offset 1.9 of Chinas
  annual emissions in 2010.

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FORECAST Application Conclusions

• Broadleaves plantations have significantly higher
  ecosystem C values than conifer plantations.
• Sustainable forest management had on average
  67.5 more ecosystem C than current forest
  management in Chinese fir forests (potential)
• More importantly, this C sequestration capability
  is more sustainable in the long term
  (sustainability)

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Final Remark

• Sustainable forestry can be successfully used to
  maximize climate change mitigation efforts
• More C increase if sustainable forestry practices
  were combined with other practices not examined
  here
• Models can be useful tools if used properly

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