Title: Visualization and analysis of clusters in large populations of fraud cases.
1Visualization and analysis of clusters in large
populations of fraud cases.
2- The fraud
- Textiles, mainly from Asian countries are
declared with as low as one tenth of their real
value -gt Evasion of ad valorem duties
Declared value 0.2 x 30,000 Units 6,000
x 12 720
(scanned orig. invoice)
During the investigation, sources speak of as
many as 40,000 containers
Actual Value 2 x 30,000 Units 60,000 x
12 7,200
3- The task
- Identify all potential cases of undervaluation
in the 27 EU Member States using the declared
average unit prices - Create an overview of clusters of cases in order
to - identify shifts between EU Member States
- evaluate the effectiveness of counter measures
taken by Member States - identify any organized behaviour across Member
States.
4- The problem
- Several statistical methods could identify these
cases as outliers (e.g. t-test), but
Fraud appears to be so widespread that it biased
the declared average unit prices over time
Example Unit Prices for imported T-Shirts, by 27
EU-MS
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Unit-Prices 610910 EU27
5Comparison between Unit Prices declared during
export in China and import in Czech Republic
Solution Chinese export unit prices seem to be
reliable
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Comparison Unit Prices CN MS05
6- Description of the data set
- Contains import declaration data for four
chapters with textile goods of the Combined
Nomenclature 61, 62, 63 and 64 - Date aggregation level Day
- Starting from Jan 2007, last update Mai 2009
- More than 6M records
- Possibility for daily updates (monitoring
function) - Contains Product Codes, Customs Procedures,
Member State, Third Country, Volume, Statistical
Value and Average Unit Value
7Analytical approach
Period Cust. Proc. Product Code Origin Destination Volume Statistical Value Average Unit Price Chinese Export avg minimum Value Difference in PCT
31/01/2007 42 6204110000 CN AT 7968,78 3832,41 0,36 17,53 2,05
- The lowest acceptable unit value is
calculated average minimum values minus standard
deviation over time (as declared at Chinese
export) - Differences between this value and the declared
unit value are calculated
8- Visualization
- PERIOD set to All Values
- Shape of the marks set to Country of Origin
- Colour of the marks represents percentage of
import values to export values - Red to pale brown -gt Below 100
- Pale brown to green -gt Above 100
Period
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Sample Import Database
Product Codes
9- Visualization
- Filter on DIFF_PCT (Difference in ) set lt 100
Period
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Sample Import Database Filtered
Product Codes
10Visualization Overview all Member States
Question 1 Can we identify clusters of cases?
?
11Event Member States were informed regarding
fraud cases
Event Mission to CZ, risk profile is introduced
Event Risk profile in DE is adapted
Question 2 Can we see shifts between Member
States?
?
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Shift MS05 MS06
12Question 2 Can we see shifts between Member
States?
?
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Product611211
13Overview of all Member States combined, by
Product Code
Question 3 Can we identify an organized
behaviour?
?
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Overview Total
14Other Findings Differences between Member
States regarding the distribution of unit values
per volume -gt Effect of differently designed risk
profiles
Workbook TableauPresentation.tbw / Worksheet
Price per MS all Products