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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

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Title: No Slide Title Author: psi Last modified by: jsii Created Date: 5/4/2001 11:48:29 AM Document presentation format: On-screen Show Company: psi – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE


1
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD SYSTEMS
(GECAFS) GECAFS In Relation To Policy
Formulation A Presentation to the GECAFS
Seminar by Professor Paul Ekins Head of
Environment Group Policy Studies Institute Royal
Society, London Tuesday 15th October, 2002
2
Scope of GECAFS
  • Emphasis on food systems. Multiple interactions
  • Natural environment - human condition
  • Local - global
  • Economic - social/cultural
  • Start from full frame of reference

3
Baseline Issues
  • Population growth ) need more
  • Increased meat in diets ) production
  • Sources of greater output in the past
  • More land
  • More inputs (water, fertiliser, pesticides)
  • Improved technology (e.g. seeds)

4
The Future? Radical Uncertainty
  • With right incentives can grow enough food for
    expected population and changed diets, perhaps
    using modern bioscience
  • Up against environmental limits (land, water,
    responsiveness to inputs), no new wonder
    technologies, modern bioscience either not safe
    or not proven or both
  • Add in GEC, multiplies uncertainty

5
From Production to Availability
  • Availability f(production, distribution)
  • Distribution is achieved through markets,
    entitlements
  • Will open, global food markets increase human
    welfare?
  • What kind of liberalisation towards what kind of
    open markets will enable poor farmers to benefit
    from globalisation and Northern countries to
    retain food security with more environmentally
    benign agriculture?
  • GECAFS at cutting edge of globalisation and
    sustainability

6
From Availability to Access
  • Starvation/malnutrition problem of access not
    production
  • World becoming more unequal. What if
  • Market demand for meat ? more crops devoted to
    feed for animals rather than humans
  • Market demand of poor for food to eat cannot
    compete?
  • Should anything be done? If so, what? What is
    entitlement to food in age of global food
    markets?
  • Does GEC resulting from the lifestyles of the
    better off make any difference?

7
Environment and Human Behaviour
  • ESRC New Opportunities Programme
  • Rapid climate change vulnerability, adaptation,
    mitigation
  • GECAFS
  • If GEC changes food system potentials, human
    behaviour will change radically
  • marginal areas may increase in productivity
  • social instability, migration, economic collapse

8
Conclusion
  • GECAFS a huge research agenda of great policy
    importance
  • If only come to understand impacts and policy
    importance of GEC in one area, this had better be
    it

9
www.psi.org.uk
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