Stevenppt

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Technology Forecasting Technology Winners
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Technology Forecasting

• The question that faces the long-range planner
  is not what we should do tomorrow, it is
• What do we have to do today to be ready for an
  uncertain tomorrow.

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Technology ForecastingWhy Do It ?

• Surveillance of Total Environment
• Estimate Time Scale for Important Events
• Threats and Opportunities
• Continued Monitoring of Trends
• Reorientation of Company Policy
• Improve Operational Decision Making

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Technology ForecastingDefinition

• Foreseeable
• Specific Scientific Refinement
• Promises to Serve Some Function
• Quantitative Conclusions Levels of Confidence
  Given Time Frame
• Specific Level of Support
• Logical Analysis...Consistent Results

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Business Environment
Political, Technological, Industrial..
Needs
Technology Forecasting
Financial support
New Product
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Technological Forecasting

• Technique Classifications
• Exploratory (From past-present-future)
• Normative (From future)
• Paths of Technological Progress
• The S Curve (with an selected attribute)
• Human intellect
• Physical limit

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Possible paths of Progress
Physical limit
Parameter of performance
A
B
C
Time
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Effect of Emergent New Technology
A
B
C
Parameter of performance
New Technology
Time
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Technological ForecastingDesired Information

• Likely Performance Levels with No New Stimuli
• Approach of Natural or Physical Limit
• Stimuli which May Change Support or Progress
• New Technologies/Crossover Points
• Performance Milestones

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Technological WinnersRadical Innovations

• Technological Potency or Importance
• Market Opportunity or Business Advantage

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The RD Effort Portfolio
Technical Opportunity
Selective Emphasis
Heavy Emphasis
Heavy Emphasis
Limited Support
Selective Emphasis
Heavy Emphasis
Limited Support
Selective Emphasis
Limited Support
Market Opportunity
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Technological WinnersDeterminants of Success
Inventive Merit
Technical Potency
Embodiment Merit
Operational Merit
Market Opportunity
Market Merit
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Technological WinnersRetrospective Examples

• Transistor in Commercial Electronics

Inventive Merit - Size, Weight, reliability
Embodiment Merit - Portable radio
Operational Merit - Low shipping costs
Market Merit - New growth market
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Technological WinnersProspective Examples

• Computerized Automobile Engine

Inventive Merit
Embodiment Merit
Operational Merit
Market Merit
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Technological WinnersProspective Examples

• Computerized Automobile Engine

Inventive Merit - Reduced pollution
Embodiment Merit - Stable performance
Operational Merit - Expansion of operation
Market Merit - Via substitution
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Technological WinnersIssues

• Radical Vs. Evolutionary Innovation
• Embodiment/Operational (e.g., VCR)
• Forecasting

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Technology ForecastingForecasting Techniques

• Trend Extrapolation
• Precursor Trends - Curve Matching
• Technological Substitution
• Delphi
• Scenarios
• Relevance Trees
• Technology Monitoring