Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care

1
Turning the TideUsing Longitudinal Data to
Understand the Flow of Children through Foster
Care

• Daniel Webster
• Joseph Magruder
• University of California, Berkeley
• Terry Shaw
• University of Maryland
• The 12th National Child Welfare Data and
  Technology Conference
• Bethesda, MD
• June 2009
• The Performance Indicators Project is funded by
  the California Department of Social Services
• and the Stuart Foundation

2
Outline

• Approaches to examining longitudinal data
• Limitations of these approaches
• Flowan expanded perspective
• Application of flow across a seven-year span
• Conclusions and next steps

3
Approaches to Longitudinal Data

• How do we investigate childrens experience in
  the child welfare system?
• Point in time counts of children on a day.
• Exits counts of children leaving care.
• Entries counts of children entering care.
• Ecological counts of children in a year.

4
Limitations of Approaches

• These approaches give a limited view of
  childrens trajectory and often cyclical
  involvement with the foster care system.
• How long was the child in care?
• How many placements did the child have?
• Did the childs placement level step down?
• How many episodes has the child had?
• Did the child reenter care?

5
Flow through the foster care system

• Flowbuilding upon the ecological data approach
• Fully-longitudinal data are necessary to answer
  these questions.
• The following slides look at childrens
  experience in the child welfare system from 1999
  through the end of 2008.
• Looking at exits
• Reentries
• Re-exits and Re-reentries

6
Data Source

• Based on quarterly extracts from Californias
  Child Welfare Services/Case Management System
  (CWS/CMS)
• Extracts are configured into a longitudinal
  database as part of a collaboration between the
  California Department of Social Services and the
  Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC
  Berkeley
• 1999-2001 child welfare-supervised care
• Children 0-11 years old (on first day of year or
  at entry to care)
• Followed for 7 years in and out of care (data
  cut-off 1/1/09)

7
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
240
48
2000
77,077 Children
8
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
77,077 Children
121
87
9
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
77,077 Children
2002
40,084 Children
10
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
77,077 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
11
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
77,077 Children
2004
27,615 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
69
12
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
77,077 Children
2005
3,515 1,821
24,506 Children
2004
27,615 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
13
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
2000
2006
77,077 Children
20,821 Children
2005
24,506 Children
2004
27,615 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
14
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
17,141 Children (16.8 of original)
2000
2006
77,077 Children
20,821 Children
2005
24,506 Children
2004
27,615 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
15
1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry
population (27,738)
Flow through the foster care system
1999
102,136 Children
17,141 Children (16.8 of original)

• 17,141 children in care on 12/31/2006 (16.8 of
  the original)

2000
2006
77,077 Children
20,821 Children

• 11,991 Children never exited from care (11.7 of
  original 70.0 of children in care on
  12/31/2006)

2005
24,506 Children
2004
27,615 Children
2002
2003
32,684 Children
40,084 Children
16
2000 In-care (71,555 children) and Entry
population (26,580)
Flow through the foster care system
2000
98,135 Children
15,397 Children (15.7 of original)

• 15,397 children in care on 12/31/2007 (15.7 of
  the original)

2001
2007
67,630 Children
19,152 Children

• 10,653 Children never exited from care (10.9 of
  original - 69.2 of children in care on
  12/31/2007)

2006
22,363 Children
2005
24,890 Children
2003
2004
28,943 Children
36,446 Children
17
2001 In-care (62,392 children) and Entry
population (26,835)
Flow through the foster care system
2001
89,227 Children
13,355 Children (14.97 of original)

• 13,355 children in care on 12/31/2008 (14.97 of
  the original)

2002
2008
62,244 Children
16,968 Children

• 9,227 Children never exited from care (10.3 of
  original - 69.1 of children in care on
  12/31/2008)

2007
20,124 Children
2006
22,145 Children
2004
2005
25,617 Children
31,951 Children
18
1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years
19
1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years
20
1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years
21
1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years
22
2001 Children Not Exiting in 7 Years by Age
Ethnic Group
23
Conclusions

• Children already in care at start of a period
  (the stock) were much less likely to ever exit
  over a span of 7 years than children entering
  during the period.
• There appears to be a slight decrease in the
  never-exit proportion from 1999 to 2001, which
  holds for almost all ethnic groups.
• Nonetheless, it is quite notable that one out of
  ten children already in or entering care in 2001
  never exited foster care over a span of 7 years.
  
• African Americans and young school-aged children
  (6-10 year olds) had the highest proportions for
  never exiting.

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Next Steps

• Examination of flow by county or region (to
  uncover potential practices worth replicating via
  PQCR)
• Application of multivariate model on likelihood
  of never exiting (using demographic, placement
  constellation, service history covariates)
• In addition to non-exiters, analysis of
  children with multiple exits and reentries
  (recyclers).
• As time passes, examination of flow with more
  follow-up time, and for post CFSR years will be
  instructive.

25
Questions
Daniel Webster dwebster_at_berkeley.edu 510.290.6779
Joseph Magruder joemagruder_at_berkeley.edu 510.643
.2585 Terry Shaw tshaw_at_ssw.umaryland.edu 410.706.
3811