Uses and Abuses of Market Research and Opinion Polls South Bank University 1 November2011

1
Uses and Abuses of Market Research and Opinion
PollsSouth Bank University1 November2011

• Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL
• Founder, MORI
• Chancellor, University of Kent

2
Outline of the Presentation
History of market opinion research
Role of market opinion research
Uses and Abuses of research
Comments / questions
3
History of Opinion Research

• Stories of the Caliph
• Plato, Epictetus
• Middle Ages
• Machiavelli
• Hume, Rousseau, Burke, de Tocqueville,
  Necker, Wieland
• Paine, Madison, Hamilton Jay
• MacKinnon, Lippmann
• Gallup Robinson, Crossley Roper, Durant,
  Stoetzel Morgan, ORC, Neilsen, Gallup, NOP,
  RSL, MORI, Ipsos
• Crespi, Page, Shipiro, Zaller, esp. Splichal
  IJPOR, MRSJ

4
Public Opinion Defined

• Public Opinion is the collective view of a
  defined population
• A Public Opinion Poll is the collective view of
  a representative sample of a defined population
  at a point in time

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A Word about Research

• We measure perceptions, not facts
• Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients
  reality, and misperceptions
• Five things we can find behaviour, knowledge,
  and
• three levels of views

6
Describing public opinion

• Public opinion is an aggregation of individual
  opinions
• Public opinion reflects majority beliefs
• Public opinion is found in the clash of group
  interests (some term this activated public
  opinion)
• Public opinion is media and elite opinion
• Public opinion has power
• Public opinion is a fiction

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Why is public opinion important in a democracy?

• Policy in democratic states should rest on public
  opinion
• Global opinions about institutions/leaders
• Specific policies and priorities
• Respect for public opinion is a safeguard against
  tyranny
• Public opinion must at times be mobilised
• Public opinion provides clues about culture

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No lack of critics

• A public opinion poll is no substitute for
  thought Warren Buffett
• How far would Moses have gone if hed taken a
  poll in Egypt? Harry S Truman
• Public opinion polls are rather like children in
  a garden, digging things up all the time to see
  how theyre growing JB Priestley

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but linked to real factors, e.g.
The more deprived your neighbourhood, the lower
the level of happiness
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and linked to real factors, e.g.
The more upper middle class people in an area,
the higher the level of satisfaction
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Cognitive polyphasia
We vote the Government in to make these
decisions for us
We are intelligent people, we can make up our
own minds, after hearing the facts. Providing we
hear the facts
If the law needs to change then they should do it
Give us the credit for thinking for ourselves
The same person can express apparently
contradictory views
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What is public opinion research? And what is it
good for?
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The role of the pollster

• Objective to measure public opinion
  systematically and objectively, at a point in
  time
• Quantitative research defines who, where, does,
  knows, and thinks what
• Qualitative research seeks to discover why people
  think the way they do and to gain understanding
  of if, and how, their views might change and the
  means by which these changes might occur

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• Quant and Qual approaches

• Qualitative
• In-depth interviews
• Small group discussions
• Larger consultation workshops
• Quantitative
• Telephone
• Face-to-face
• Online

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• Survey Research (quant)

• ... a simple business really!
• All you have to do is
• ask the right questions
• of the right sample
• add up the figures correctly
• and report the findings accurately

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• The art of asking questions

Six Functions 1. Maintaining the respondent's
co-operation and involvement 2. Communicating to
the respondent 3. Helping the respondent to work
out how to answer 4. Avoiding bias 5. Making the
interviewer's task easier 6. Providing a basis
for data processing
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Watch out for biased questions
Q Are you in favour of direct retaliatory action
against Franco's piracy?
Gallup question, 1937
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and phone(y) polls
Q How would you vote if there was a General
Election tomorrow?

Express Straw Poll
Express Readers (MORI)
General Public (MORI)
Sample size
c. 70,000
203
1,070




Conservative
91
61
46
Labour
4
26
43
Liberal
2
9
7
Other
3
4
4
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and misleading spin
WHAT THE MARCH OF DIMES NEWS RELEASE SAID Mon
Dec 14 (HealthDay News) A poll of about 1,200
mothers found that the leading cause of worry was
birth defects (78 percent), followed by concern
that stress in their life might harm their babys
health (74 percent) and wondering whether their
baby would be born too soon (71 percent)The
findings were presented Dec. 9 at a meeting of
the March of Dimes National communications
Advisory Council
WHAT THE NEWS RELEASE DID NOT SAY The poll was
conducted Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, 2009 using the
online software Zoomerang. There were 123 valid
responses from the 1,224 women from the March of
Dimes Moms e-panelwho were invited by email to
answer the 65 questionsthe survey was written by
Betty Wolder Levin, Ph.D. professor of Public
Health, Graduate Center of the City University of
New York.
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and MORE misleading polls
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• The science of sampling

Six Functions 1. Ensure representation 2. Ensure
replicability 3. Eliminate interviewer bias 4.
Making the interviewer's task easier 5. Provide a
basis for data processing 6. Provide a basis for
comparison
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Eight Ways of Analysing the Data

• Internal comparisons (between sub-groups)
• Longitudinal comparisons (over time)
• Normative comparisons (against the databank)
• Ideal v. actual comparisons (respondent internal
  evaluation)
• Expectations v. actual comparisons (managements
  anticipated v. respondents actual)
• Employee and management ideal (comparison)
• Benchmark comparisons (against other companies
  results)
• International comparisons (inter- or intra-firm
  comparisons internationally)

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Only six in ten still have internet access
penetration is slowing
with internet access at home or at work, 4th
quarter 2006
All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65
All 622 741 721 784 722 595 241
AB 791 89-4 88-4 933 914 802 420
C1 733 851 851 862 813 709 271
C2 583 744 652 745 675 442 182
DE 371 55-1 454 527 388 291 81
Base c. 10,000 GB adults 15, Oct-Dec 2006
(compared to c. 12,000 GB adults 15, Jan-Mar
2005) Source Ipsos MORI Monthly Technology
Tracker
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• Who uses
• public opinion research?

• The Media
• Opinion Polls
• general public
• specialist public
• Private Companies
• Marketing
• Public Relations
• Employer Management

• Political Parties
• Gauging attitudes to policies, Party leaders
• Pressure Groups
• Stimulate/focus debate, exert pressure
• Government (Central and Local)
• Housing needs, social conditions
• Service delivery, charter development

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But the future of public opinion research?
for each new source of information, you need to
connect the dots be sure that what you are
getting makes sense.
Thanks to social media platformsyou are not
just interviewing people, but also you have
people interacting with each other.
as an industry we have moved a lot of data
collection activity to online panels.
Thanks to social media platformsyou are not
just interviewing people, but also you have
people interacting with each other.
We need to have a better understanding of how we
can communicate better what we have learned to
our clients.
Dedier Truchot, Chairman, Ipsos
We need to reduce the time delay between what we
do and how our clients can use that information.
We need to reduce the time delay between what we
do and how our clients can use that information.
..increase our ability to act consistently on a
worldwide basis.
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But the future of public opinion research?
Government researchers realising they cant any
longer afford huge in-home random samples.
Use of panel surveys expanding.
More multi-method data collection.
Poorer, but quicker and cheaper data less
interpretive reports, more blending of qual and
quant with behavioural data.
More use of referendums God help us.
Bob Worcester Founder, MORI
more willingness to employ research consultants
as interpreters and implementers than heretofore,
as internal research departments are closed.
..fewer one-trick ponies in research departments
and agencies.
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But the future of public opinion research?
business intelligence consultants are likely to
take over portions of the market now owned by
researchers. KJ
surveys and other forms of direct questioning
will continue to be an important source of
insight. RB
Surveys need t be interactive, engaging and
entertaining. MB
will be a shift to passive methods. LN
big step up in realism, e.g. virtual
stores/shopping 3D and devices that record what
actually happened. LN
greater reliance on behavioural data. RB
Always on, more predictive... transformation
from ad hoc to periodic to continuous tracking
and measurement KJ
consumers increasingly leave rich data trails.
MB
LN (Linda Neville, Coca-Cola JH Jeff Hunter,
General Mills Reg Barker, Market Strategies
Kees de Jong, SSI, Mike Brochu, GMI
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• Ten Point Guide to Reading the Polls

1. When were the fieldwork dates?
2. Was the sample representative and large enough?
3. The more sampling points the better
4. Make sure of where the sample was taken
5. Is it a panel study, face-to-face or a telephone
   poll?
6. Are the questions unbiased?
7. Are "Don't knows" re-allocated?
8. Are differences statistically significant?
9. Full question wording, and full answer wording
10. Who paid for the poll?

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10 Questions for Management

• Who are the publics of importance to you?
• How do these publics regard you now?
• What 'facts' are misunderstood?
• Are you capitalising on your reputation
  strengths?
• Are you worrying about the wrong reputation
  problems?
• Are there changes necessary in how you conduct
  your business and talk about yourselves?
• Are all your communications reinforcing the kind
  of reputation you seek?
• Are you using the right means to communicate?
• Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to
  track these?
• And, over time, how do the things you and others
  do and say affect your reputation?

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Brands, Tracking, Communications
Opinions, Attitudes and Values
Professor Sir Robert Worcester Chancellor,
University of Kent South Bank Unversity 1
November 2011
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Outline of the Presentation

• Reflections on
• The Nature of Public Opinion
• 40 Years of Measuring Brands
• and Tracking
• and Communication

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Public Opinion
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Defining Public Opinion

• Public opinion is the collective view a defined
  population.
• A public opinion poll is the collective view of
  a representative sample of a defined
  population.
• Robert Worcester, 1981

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Dealing with Public Opinion

• Perceptions, not facts (Epictetus)
• Five tools to measure public opinion
• Behaviour Knowledge Views

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10 Questions for Management

• 1. Who are the publics of importance to you? (T)
• 2. How do these publics regard you now? (T)
• 3. What 'facts' are misunderstood? (B)
• 4. Are you capitalising on your reputation
  strengths? (B)
• 5. Are you worrying about the wrong reputation
  problems? (B)
• 6. Are there changes necessary in how you conduct
  your business and talk about yourselves? (C)
• 7. Are all your communications reinforcing the
  kind of reputation you seek? (C)
• Are you using the right means to communicate? (C)
• 9. Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need
  to track these? (T)
• 10. And, over time, how do the things you and
  others do and say affect your reputation? (T)

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The four brands(sometimes five)
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The Four Image Categories

• Product Image the collection of image attributes
  shared by all brands in a product class,
• Brand Image the unique characteristics that
  distinguish it from other the brands in the
  product class,
• Brand User Image that describes the sort of
  person who uses the brand, and
• Corporate Image the net result of the
  interaction of all experiences, impressions,
  beliefs, feelings and knowledge people have about
  a company

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The fifth brand

• The Image of the Country of (perceived) Ownership
  of the company that produces the brands and
  services.

• Robert Worcester Geoffrey Morris, 1973

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Reputations in Perspective
Attitudes to Major Companies
Industries
Details of Image Profile
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Definition of Corporate Reputation

• The net result of the interaction of all
  experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings and
  knowledge people have about a company industry,
  political party, religion

• Robert Worcester, 1969

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Definition of Corporate Identity

• The visible manifestation
• of the corporate image.

• Robert Worcester, 1969

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Details of Corporate Reputation
Corporate Reputation
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A stakeholder is

• Anyone who can bugger up the business

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Five Steps to Effective Communications

• Awareness (Heres who we are)
• Involvement (Heres what we can do for you)
• Knowledge (Herere the facts)
• Persuasion (Heres what we want you to think)
• Action (Heres what you should do)

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• The Communications Process

Behaviour
Research
Perceptions

• Measures perceptions behaviour of target
  audiences, including intermediaries

Audiences
e.g. Consumers, MPs, Investors, employees,
business decision makers, suppliers,
media, analysts, opinion formers
Media evaluation measures the content and tone
of media output
Intermediaries
Means
eg. Press releases, publications, letters,
email, web sites, events, meetings etc

• Tests messages means to improve their
  effectiveness

Messages
Objectives

• Provides performance indicators for, and feeds
  back into, strategy objectives benchmarks
• metrics

Strategies
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Effect of Source of Knowledge on Favourability
Average of 40 major companies
Favourable
TOTAL
Seen their ads
Heard or read about them in the news
Seen name on buildings, vehicles
Used products/ services
Know someone who works there
47
Importance of communication CR experts
Effectiveness of their Corporate Responsibility
Effectiveness of their Communication
Base All CR experts (20), July/August 2006
48
Attitudes Towards Business - 2007
Q To what extent do you agree or disagree that ...
Disagree
Agree
British companies do not payenough attention to
their treatmentof the environment
Company profits are too high in Britain
The main responsibility of companies is to
perform competitively, even when this means
reducing the number of people they employ
Old-established companies make the best products
New brands on the market are usually improvements
over old-established brands
The profits of large companies help to make
things better for everyone who uses their
products and services
Base British Public (929), August 2007
49

• Faith in the Benefits of Profits

The profits of large companies help to make
things better for everyone who uses their
products and services
51
49
Swing - 17
35
27

Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
50

• Level of companies profits

Company profits in Britain are too high
59
Agree
Swing - 23
14
Disagree

Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
51

• Faith in the established brands- 1

Old-established companies make the best products
39
48
Agree
32
Swing - 3
29
Disagree

Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
52

• Faith in the established - 2

New brands on the market are usually
improvements over the old established brands
41
39
Agree
37
Swing 7
29
Disagree

Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
53

• The importance of Honesty

Q What do you think are the two or three most
important things to know about a company in order
to judge its reputation ? (Spontaneous)
Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
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Thoughts to leave you with

• Hear yourself through stakeholders ears
• Promise what you can deliver what you promise
• Hit the issues before they hit you
• Exorcise corporate-speak
• If youre doing good, tell those who matter to you

55
Thank youchancellor_at_kent.ac.uk
56

• Company Priorities

Q What do you think companies should pay
particular attention to over the next few years ?
(Prompted)


Source MORI Ipsos MORI
Base c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain
57
Priority Focus for Companies
Q Which three or four of these do you think
companies should pay particular attention to over
the next few years? (Prompted)
Change 01-06
Concern for the environment
10 -7 16 -3 -2 -3 1 -4 -9 -5 0 3
Caring for employees
Conserving energy
Providing more jobs
Investing for the future
Keeping prices reasonable
Caring for customers
Providing good quality products / services
Training the workforce
Safety of the workforce
Providing equal opportunities
Supporting activities in the community
Base British Public (975), June 2006
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Tools at our disposal
Advocacy
Resiliency
Your reputation
Stakeholder mapping
Communication testing
Key drivers
Norms
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Eight Ways of Analysing the Data

• Internal comparisons (between sub-groups)
• Longitudinal comparisons (over time)
• Normative comparisons (against the databank)
• Ideal v. actual comparisons (respondent internal
  evaluation)
• Expectations v. actual comparisons (managements
  anticipated v. respondents actual)
• Employee and management ideal (comparison)
• Benchmark comparisons (against other companies
  results)
• International comparisons (inter- or intra-firm
  comparisons internationally)

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MORI 1969-2005
50m
Euro launched Collapse of Enron
Thatcher elected Foot Lableader
Thatcher landslide 3m jobless Falkland Charles
Diana marry
Election Thatcher 3rd term Berlin Wall falls
Gulf War Black Wedday Thatcher goes Major
PM, wins election
European Monetary Union Labour landslide
John Smith dies Tony Blair Labour Leader
1st man on the moon Heath wins election
Wilson wins 2 Decimalisation 3 day week UK joins
EEC
Wilson resigns Callaghan PM EEC referendum
IRA bomb Tory conference GLC abolished
Livingstone elected Mayorof London
General Election - 2nd term for Blair 11th
SeptTerrorist Attacks
Euro- Parliamentary elections Scottish Welsh
elections
War inIraq Congestioncharging starts inLondon
Asian Tsunami Bushre-elected EU expands to 25
GeneralElection 3rd termfor Blair 7th
JulyLondon bombings
Majorevents
40m
Charter 21.2.69 Bob W. 2 staff JVNOP/ ORC 20
P/S
10 staff Stewart Lewis joinsMORIsmoke free
25 staff Own Finance Dept
50 staff
100 staff 10 share-holders
150 staff Brian GosschalMD 20 shareholders
1997 MORIrestructred
Brian Gosschalk joins
300 staff Bob on Desert Island Discs
MORIs30thAnniversary
220staff 1st MBO 150 shareholdersBG CEO
250 staff Everett MD Borough Road
350 staff Ben Pagemost influentialpublic
sector people
420 staff 2nd MBO
120staff Southwark Street
450 staff Sir Robert! Acquiredby Ipsos 21.10 for
88m
Roger Stubbs joins Bob buys 70 10 P/S
Staff/ ownership
30m
BF Cons MarketReschHand book
1st Local Govt 1st Editors Political
Communication
Field Tab MORI OmnibusPrivate Opinion
PublicPolls
On-line BE SurveyResearch forManagers
MFS - (MORI BPO We British Typical.British
Scotnd Test
Simpson Carpenter
All banks Oil Cos, ICI Labour Party
Senior Civil Servants study 1st survey of MPs
1st City Study BPOPOP InternationalReview
MORI MRCHow to win EuroReferendum
ExplainingLaboursSecondLandslide
ExplainingLaboursLandslide
MORI Data Services set up Market Dynamics Acquired
Major industryawards forMORI Market Dynamic
Test
The Referendum Battle
Explaining LaboursLandslip
Services/ Books
20m
Bot Labour Party ICI Shell Barcly Lloyds
Midland NatWes
Referendumpo Economist BBC, S Times, E.Std,
South- wark 1979 Election polls ?1
The Times 83 Election polls spot on!
Firstprivatisation Readers Digest
Waterprivatisation 1987 Election polls ?1
LocalGovernmentCommission
1997 Election polls ?2.5 ITN BP Peoples
Panel
Panel study for Labour party Election
pollsLabour Party
EMU
MORI top of Admap poll
Trinidad Liveabilityand Trust
Changing Face of Big Business, NHS Frontiers
Life, Sat.
2001 Election polls ?2 English
ScottishHCS Caribaro
MORI conducts public polls on war in Bosnia Mood
of the Nation
MORI ParticipationUnitcreated

Clients/ polls
10m
Over 1m
First 200k study
over 5m
First 1mstudy
Fastest growthmajor agency Over25m
One of 3 fastest Over 35m
(again) Over33m
One of 3(again) Over39m
Over 20m
(again) 19thworld wide Over44m
Over48m
in 196950k
Over 15m
Over10m
T/O
0m
1969-71
1972-74
1975-77
1978-80
1981-83
1984-86
1987-89
1990-92
1993-95
1996-98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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30 Years of British Public Attitudes

• In 1977
• 55 agreed the profits of large companies help
  make things better for everyone who uses their
  products and services
• 44 agreed that companies profits in Britain
  are too high
• In 2007
• 27 agree that the profits of large companies
  help make things better for everyone who uses
  their products and services
• 59 agree that companies profits in Britain are
  too high

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Directions?

• In 1973, I pointed out to the CBI that the
  average person in this country believes that the
  average company makes c. 40 of profit on every
  100 of goods it sells, and what has business
  done about it?
• 55 agreed the profits of large companies help
  make things better for everyone who uses their
  products and services
• 44 agreed that companies profits in Britain
  are too high
• In 2007
• 27 agree that the profits of large companies
  help make things better for everyone who uses
  their products and services
• 59 agree that companies profits in Britain are
  too high

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Corporate reputation is the synthesis of many
factors

• Product class image
• Brand image
• Brand user image
• Corporate image
• Image of the country behind the brand

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A quarter say responsibility very important to
purchase
Q When forming a decision about buying a product
or service from a particular company or
organisation, how important is it that it shows a
high degree of social responsibility?
No opinion
Not at all important
Very important
Not very important
Fairly important
Base 1,011 GB adults 16, 4th 10th September
2009, face-to-face methodology
65
Importance to purchase fallen back to 1997 levels
Q When forming a decision about buying a product
or service from a particular company or
organisation, how important is it that it shows a
high degree of social responsibility?
Very important
Fairly important
Not very important
Not at all important
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
Base 1,011 GB adults 16, 4th 10th September
2009 1997-2008 c. 1,000 GB adults 16 each year.
Asked face-to-face