Futures (Tense?)

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Futures (Tense?)

• IFE 2020,
• Feb 25, Honolulu
• Dr. Scott MacLeod
• macleods_at_eastwestcenter.org
• Thanks to HRCFS

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Some Introductions

• You
• Sam
• APLP
• What?
• Who?
• Why?
• How?
• Leadership
• Today Leadership, for What Purpose(s)?
• For the Future (our worlds, organizations and
  students)
• For Communities (our worlds, organizations,
  students)
• Its about the questions

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Locating Our Focus

• Where will students use education?
• Is it on the test? (info and change)
• Where will you lead?

Histories of the Future http//wholeearthfilms.com
/ferguson_niall.html
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Outline

• Seeing the FutureS
• What Makes the Future?
• Communicating Futures
• Scenario Building

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Outline

• Seeing the FutureS
• What Makes the Future?
• Communicating Futures
• Scenario Building

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Seeing Futures 1.0
How Does It Look To You?
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Seeing Futures 2.0Horizon (3 scales)

• Future as it emerges
• The moment, presence
• Tactics
• Medium, Planning
• Strategy
• Longer, imaginable
• What Could Be (Novelties)
• Futurists (25-50 Years, lets say
  2040)(1981-2008) What has changed?
• What has happened to the future?
• Where should education focus?

At What Scale?
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Why the Far Future?

• Learning from the Far Future?
• A tool for helping us think
• Asking right questions
• Preparing for crises (change)
• Benefits of many voices
• Forecasting alternative futures
• Futurists can not predict the future.
• Inventing preferred futures
• Lifelong Active Learning

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Seeing Futures 3.0

• Dators Second Law
• Any useful Idea about the future must appear to
  be ridiculous

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The Future Walks Among Us

• Create one ridiculous idea about the future, 30
  years from now.

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Outline

• Seeing the FutureS
• What Elements Make the Future?
• Communicating Futures
• Scenario Building

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Your Call

• What Elements Make the Future?
• Primary Sources of Change

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What Are We Looking At?

• ContinuationsThings that have long existed, may
  change but core is the same (e.g., capitalism,
  electricity)
• Cycles Come and Go. (e.g., Peak Oil, Housing
  Boom)
• Novelties Never before experienced by humans
  Not in past or present, will be in futures
  (?)

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COMPONENTS OF FUTURES 1. Continuities
?? 2. Cycles ?? 3.
Novelties ?? Total 100
Has this changed?
Where do we need to focus?
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Identifying and Communicating FuturesBuilding
Scenarios

• Data
• Dimensions
• Narratives

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Seeing Futures 3.0 Where?
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Emerging Patterns The IFE 4

• Complexity/Surprise
• Difference
• Inter-dependency
• Non-Linear Change

• Trends
• Emerging Issues
• Risks/Opportunities

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Risks
Scaling Risks Likelihood X Impact (costs, lives,
others?) X Vulnerability X Actionability X Knock
on Effects
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Data
Numbers dont lie This approach emphasizes
trends (beware!) See below.
Often this approach uses High Low Estimates etc
(as above right)
Data Illustrate Bias
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DimensionsModel below is looking at Chinas
future. It creates four alternative outcomes
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Narratives

• Why? people see the world this way.
• Evokes coherence, can tap emotions and other
  triggers.
• Can capture the inter-connected nature of risks
  and events (i.e. networks structure)
• Can bring together disparate elements.

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Scenario BuildWhat Variables?

1. Education and Context

1. For You, What Drives Social /Educational Change
   (Mostly)?
2. Within this area what is the key dynamic of
   change?
3. What are the ends of a continuum which might
   describe future developments?

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Presenting Some Futures