??????????

1
?? 17 ????????????

• ????

???????
2
?????

• ????????????,????????,???????????????,??????

3
?????

• ????????????,???? Odyssey ?????????????????,??
  ???????????,Einstein ??????? Maxwell
  ??????????????????

4
??????

• ?????????????????????????,??????,??????
• ??????,???????????????,???????,???????????????????
  ????????????????????,?????????,?????????????????
  ?

5
???

• ????????????????
• ??????????????,???????????????????????????????????
  ??????

6
Popper ????

• problem of demarcation science ? pseudo-science
  ?????
• Falsifiability (????) A hypothesis is scientific
  if and only if it has the potential to be refuted
  by some possible observation.

7
Popper ????

• ????????
• It never rains on Wednesday.
• All substances expand when heated.
• Heavy objects, such as brick when released near
  the surface of the earth, fall straight downwards
  if not impeded.
• When a ray of light is reflected from a plane
  mirror, the angle of incidence is equal to the
  angle of reflection.
• Unlike magnetic poles attract each other.
• An acid added to a base yields a salt plus water.

8
Popper ????

• ????????
• Either it is raining or it is not raining.
• All points on a Euclidean circle are equidistant
  from the center.
• ?????????????????

9
Popper ????

• ??????????????????,????????????????????
• pseudo-science ?????Marx ??????
• ??Freud ????????
• ??Adler ? individual psychology?

10
Popper ????

• ??????????,????????????/??????????????????,???????
  ?????? (?????????),?????????????
• ? Popper ??,confirmation is a myth????????,??????
  ??????,???????????????
• ????????????,?????????,???????????????????????????
  ???,?????????????,??????

11
Popper ????

• Popper ??,???????????????????????????????,??,?????
  ?????????????

12
Popper ????

• ???????????,???????????????
• ???????????????????,????????
• Popper ??????????? (corroborated.)

13
Popper ????

• ????????????????????,??,?????,????????????????????
  
• ??,?????????????????????,?????????????

14
Popper ????

• ?? Popper ??????????????????????????
• Popper ? Hume ???????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????

15
Popper ????

• ??????,???????????????????,?? Popper ??????
• ????? 52 ???????????????????????,???
  1/52????????,???????????,??????????????????????

16
Popper ????

• Now consider a scientific theory that, like
  Newtons theory of gravitation, is universal. The
  number of things to which Newtons theory applies
  is, presumably, infinite. Imagine that we name
  each of these things by numbering them 1, 2,
  3,..., n,

17
Popper ????

• There are infinitely many ways the world could
  be, each equally probable.
• 1 obeys Newtons theory, but none of the others
  do.
• 1 and 2 obey Newtons theory, but none of the
  others do.
• 1, 2, and 3 obey Newtons theory, but none of the
  others do.
• .
• All bodies(1, 2, 3,..., n,)obey Newtons theory.

18
Popper ????

• Since these possibilities are infinite in number,
  and each of them has the same probability, the
  probability of any one of them must be 0.
• But only one, the last one, represents the way
  the world would be if Newtons theory were true.
• So the probability of Newtons theory (and any
  other universal generalization) must be 0.

19
Popper ????

• Popper ???????????,?????????????????????,?????,???
  ???????????????????????

20
Popper ??????

• ??????????????????????,????????
• (1) ???? (???????????,?????????????)????,??????,?
  ??????

21

• ??Mars moves in an ellipse around the sun. vs.
  All planets move in ellipses around their sun.
• ??Planets move in ellipses around the sun. vs.
  Planets move in closed loops around the sun.

22
Popper ??????

• ??Kepler ??????(three laws of planetary motion)?
  Newton ????
• Potential falsifiers of Kepler's theory consist
  of sets of statements referring to planetary
  positions relative to the sun at specified times.

23

• Newtons theory, a better theory that superseded
  Keplers, is more comprehensive. It consists of
  Newtons laws of motion plus his laws of
  gravitation.
• Some of the potential falsifiers of Newtons
  theory are sets of statements of planetary
  positions at specified times. But there are many
  others, including those referring to the behavior
  of falling bodies and pendulums, the correlation
  between the tides and the locations of the sun
  and moon, and so on. There are many more
  opportunities for falsifying Newtons theory than
  for falsifying Keplers theory. And yet, Newtons
  theory was able to resist attempted
  falsifications, thereby establishing its
  superiority over Keplers.

24
Popper ??????

• (2) ?????????????????????
• (3) ????????????????
• (i) ??????,???????,???
• (ii) ??????,??????????????????,???????,???????????
  ???

25
Popper ??????

• (4) ??????????????????????
• (5) ?????????,????????????
• ??????????????,??????????????????????????,?????

26
Popper ??????

• ?????????????????,???????????????????????????????
• ??????????????,???????????????,?????

27
Popper ??????

• ?? Popper ?????????????????,??????????????????????
  ????
• ?????????,???????????

28
Popper ??????

• Despite insisting that we can never support or
  confirm scientific theories, Popper believed that
  science is a search for the true descriptions of
  the world. How can one search for truth if
  confirmation is impossible? This is an unusual
  kind of search. We might compare it to a certain
  kind of search for the Holy Grail, conducted by
  an imaginary medieval knight.

29
Popper ??????

• Suppose there are lots of grails around, but only
  one of them is holy. In fact, the number of
  nonholy grails is infinite or enormous, and you
  will never encounter them all in a lifetime.

30
Popper ??????

• All the grails glow, but only the Holy Grail
  glows forever. The others eventually stop
  glowing, but there is no telling when any
  particular nonholy grail will stop glowing.

31
????
?? ?? ???? ??/??
1-32 ?????? Microsoft Office 2003?????,?? Microsoft ?????????? 46?52?65 ?????
2 ?????,????? ??
2?4 ?????,???? ??
6 A hypothesis is observation. Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.58. ?????? ? 46?52?65 ?????
7-8 It never rains on Wednesdayare equidistant from the center. Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.62-63. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
32
????
?? ?? ???? ??/??
21 Mars moves in an ellipse around the sun. vs. Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.65. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
22 Potential falsifiers of sun at specified times. Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.66. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
23 Newtons theorysuperiority over Keplers. Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.66. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
28 Despite insisting that we can never support an imaginary medieval knight Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.60. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
33
????
?? ?? ???? ??/??
29 Suppose there are lots of them all in a lifetime. Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.60. ??????? 46?52?65 ??????
30 All the grails glownonholy grail will stop glowing Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.60. ??????? 46?52?65 ??????