Donald Fournier Building Research Council School of Architecture University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Donald FournierBuilding Research CouncilSchool
of Architecture University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign
WMRC Sustainability Seminar

• Sustainability, Energy, and the Energy/Water Nexus

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Overview

• Background (US and World Energy situation).
• Sustainability and the tech fix.
• Can we get there?
• The Energy Water/ Nexus.

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World Energy Use (Quads)
Source DOE/EIA International Energy Outlook 2007
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US Energy Use (Quads)
Source DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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US Electric Generation by Fuel
Source DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2006 4,065 B kWh
Billion kWh
Should be 3927 B kWh (2 years ahead)
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Source ASPO Sep 2006
Actual Production 2003 79.62 Mbd 2004 83.12
Mbd 2005 84.63 Mbd 2006 84.60 Mbd 2007
84.34 Mbd
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Petroleum Prices
DOE/EIA, November 2007
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Natural Gas Prices
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Natural Gas Prices
Source DOE/EIA 2007
Source DOE/EIA 2007 (thru August)
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Coal Prices
Source DOE/EIA 2007
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U.S. Energy Flows 2006
69 22
Source DOE/EIA 2007
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Renewable Energy
US Energy Production Last year PV grew
33 Wind grew 27 Biofuels grew gt23 Coal grew
2.5 Natural Gas grew 2.3 Oil grew
1.0 Nuclear Electric grew 1.0
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Atmospheric CO2
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Carbon Emissions

• Unknowingly, the architecture and building
  community is responsible for almost half of all
  U.S. greenhouse gas emissions annually. Globally
  the percentage is even greater.

US Energy Information Administration statistics
Graphic Published first in Metropolis Magazine,
October 2003 Issue
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Energy Trends in Buildings
Average energy consumption (Btu/sq. ft) Before
1920 80,127 1920 1945 90,234 1946
1959 80,198 1960 1969 90,976 1970
1979 94,968 1980 1989 100,077 1990
1999 88,834 2000 2003 79,703
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• Source EIA/DOE 2006 Energy Book
• They predict no improvement in efficiency for the
  next 30 years for new or existing!
• What are they smoking???? Or ????

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Opportunity for Change

• Each year in the United States, we tear down
  approximately 1.75 billion square feet of
  buildings, renovate 5 billion square feet, and
  build new another 5 billion square feet.
• During the next 30 years, some 50 billion square
  feet will be torn down, some 150 billion will be
  renovated, and another 150 billion will be built
  new.
• By 2030, three-quarters of the built environment
  will be either new or renovated.

AIA COTE Ecology and Design Ecological Literacy
in Architecture Education, 2006
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AIA 2030 Position Statement

• Promote sustainable design including resource
  conservation to achieve a minimum 50 percent
  reduction from the current level of consumption
  of fossil fuels used to construct and operate new
  and renovated buildings by the year 2010, and
  promote further reductions of remaining fossil
  fuel consumption by 10 percent or more in each of
  the following five years.

Source AIA November 2005
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AIA 2010 Goals

• AIA baseline is ENERGY STAR Target Finder.
• This is the average building of that type in that
  weather region.
• Average Office building in Chicago uses
• 92.3 kBtu/sf (5,000 sf)
• 101.5 kBtu/sf (20,000 sf)
• 113.3 kBtu/sf (100,000 sf)
• Pretty weak standard!
• ASHRAE Std 90.1-1999 yields about 67 kBtu/sf for
  an office building (including plug loads).
• If we target 30 below that (about 47 kBtu/sf),
  you will get an AIA 2010 building.

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ASHRAE Actions

• Advanced Energy Design Guides
• 30, 50, 75, then Net Zero Energy
• Small Buildings (lt20,000sf)
• Office, Retail, K-12 Schools, Warehouses, Highway
  Lodging, High-rise Residential, and Existing
  Buildings.
• Schedule
• Complete all 30 guides by 2008.
• Complete all 50 guides by 2011.
• Complete all 70 guides by 2016.
• Complete net-zero guidance 2020.

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ASHRAE Actions/Initiatives

• Standard 90.1-2007 Energy Standard for Buildings
  Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs - 5 to -7
  below 2004.
• Standard 90.1-2010 Energy Standard for Buildings
  Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs 30 percent
  reduction from 90.1-2004.
• California requiring commercial buildings to be
  net zero energy by 2020 and residential building
  to be net zero energy by 2030.

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Why Be Energy Efficient?

• Reduce operating costs.
• Stabilize atmospheric carbon reduce global
  climate change impacts.
• Improve the quality of life in our buildings and
  communities.
• The energy efficiency policies, building and
  appliance codes, incentives, and technology
  improvements in the U.S. since the mid-1970s now
  avoid the use of approximately
• 40 quadrillion Bturoughly 40 percent of the
  energy currently consumed.
• Emission of more than 2 billion tons of CO2 per
  year.

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Energy Efficiency

• The cost of saving energy is going down while the
  price of energy is going up.
• Efficiency is the cleanest, cheapest, safest, and
  most secure source energy we have.
• These savings from energy efficiency to date have
  not yet come close to tapping the full potential
  for savings.
• Incentives are available under EPAct 2005 to get
  deductions and tax credits for energy efficiency
  and renewable energy.

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Energy Opportunities

• SEDAC has looked at about 200 commercial
  buildings.
• Potential energy savings ranged from a high of
  80 to a low of 3for existing buildings and
  between 86 and 12 for new designs.
• Data from 70 existing buildings shows
• 32 energy savings.
• 34 energy cost savings.
• Data from 39 new building designs shows
• 41 energy savings.
• 38 energy cost savings.

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Implications

• We estimate is costs a client about 68/million
  Btu to save energy. This is heavily weighted
  towards retrofits.
• Our program of analysis costs about 16/million
  Btu of recommended savings.
• Current energy costs are around 11/MBtu of
  Natural Gas and 27/MBtu of Electricity.
• Energy savings are about 1/3 electricity and 2/3
  natural gas.
• Weighted cost of about 17 with a 4 year payback.
  (Not good enough for many businesses.)

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Sustainability for a Region

• Analyzed Fort Bragg, Fayetteville, NC, and the
  eight counties around it.
• Modeled dynamic urban growth for 35 years into
  the future.
• Develop energy and water projections associated
  with that growth based on business as usual.
• Analyzed potential interventions to change the
  future.

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Project Future Change
Land Use Evolution and Impact Assessment
Model (LEAM)
Columbus/Ft Benning
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Fort Bragg2000-20353 population growth per year
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Perform Gap Analysis
2030

• 2000

500,000 population 200,000 households 260
million sq. ft. of commercial/industrial - 19,000
acres of agriculture - 34,000 acres of forest
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The Concept
Preferred Future State
Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions
taken along the way
Current State
Current-Trend
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Energy Model
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Total Energy
41 Increase
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Energy Interventions

• Building Code Adoption over time
• 2010 30 Reduction
• 2015 50 Reduction
• 2020 75 Reduction
• 2025 Net Zero Energy Buildings
• Existing Building Initiatives
• 2015 20 Target
• 2025 40 Target
• Agricultural Initiatives
• 2015 Energy Efficiency 35 Potential
• 2015 Renewable Energy 25 Potential
• Transportation Initiatives (2012 40)
• Biofuels
• GHG Standards
• HEV/PHEV Penetration

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Energy Efficiency And Renewables
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Energy Intervention Scenario
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Air Emissions Model
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Air Emissions
A 48 Increase
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Air Emissions
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Regional CO2 Implications
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Water Model
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Intervention BMPs

• Fort Bragg (2004)
• Public System Water Loss Control (2010)
• Commercial/Industrial Water Conservation Program
  (2012)
• Resident Water Conservation Program (2015)
• Agricultural Water Conservation Program (2018)

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Regional Actions

• Regional intervention requires long tern
  approached with regional stakeholders to enable
  planning initiatives.
• Intervention done in a timely manner can made a
  tremendous difference in a region.
• The trick is getting all the vested interests to
  engage and actually start to change policy for a
  sustainable future
• Incentives are required to get people to adopt
  new technology and new ways.
• Water is more intractable than energy.

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Earths Water
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Energy/Water Nexus

• The major fresh water consuming sectors are not
  buildings they are agriculture and
  thermoelectric power.
• Agriculture and thermoelectric use about 40
  each, while buildings use about 12 of the
  supply.
• Our energy security is closely linked to the
  state of our water resources. Water resources are
  require to achieve any sort of energy security in
  the years and decades ahead.
• Our water security cannot be guaranteed without
  careful attention to related energy issues. The
  two issues are inextricably linked.

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Fresh Water in the US
USGS 2004
All numbers in MGD
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Energy/Water Nexus

• Each kilowatt hour of electricity requires about
  27 gallons of water.
• 500 MW coal-fired power plant requires over 12
  million gallons per hour of water for cooling and
  other process requirements such as scrubbing
  sulfur dioxide from the stack gases.
• Energy security rests on two principles using
  less energy to provide needed services and having
  access to technologies that provide a diverse
  supply of reliable, affordable and
  environmentally sound energy.
• Thermoelectric power plants dont get us there.

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Proposed Energy Sources

• New electrical sources that dont use water
• Photovoltaics
• Wind turbines
• Low-head hydro
• Coal gasification combined cycle (CGCC)
• New energy sources for liquid fuels
• Tar sands
• Oil shale
• Coal to liquids
• Biofuels Ethanol Biodiesel

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Source USDOE, Oct 2007
Ethanol from Corn
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Water Associated

• Oil Shale 1-3 barrels per barrel oil
• Production level of 2.5 million bbl/day requires
  105-315 MGD.
• Associated water consumption with development 58
  MGD.
• Tar Sands 2-4 barrels/bbl
• Plus 4 of Canada NG supply.
• Coal to Liquids 5-7 bbl/bbl.

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Energy/Water Nexus

• Informs us that the path is not with traditional
  energy sources.
• We must greatly increase the energy and water
  efficiency of our built environment and
  agriculture.
• Water is going to be a bigger and tougher problem
  than energy to solve.
• Non-water based renewables must be our focus.