C.S.T.R (Continuously Stirred Thought Reactor) CSChE Edmonton

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C.S.T.R (Continuously Stirred Thought
Reactor)CSChE Edmonton February 2002
Climate Change The Other Theories!
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Summary of Past CSTRs

• January 1998 Focus on Kyoto Implications
• Kyoto Agreement based on one theory and few solid
  facts
• Prudent to move ahead on GHG reductions but
  cautiously
• May 2000 Focus on Other Theories
• Seven theories proposed
• In trouble-shooting the first cause considered is
  not always right. Maybe a number of causes. GHG
  looks weak.
• February 2002 Focus What is the best Theory?
• Better data now, what theories can be eliminated?
• What theory is best supported by the data

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Climate Change is Occurring

• Evidence is growing that the Climate is Changing
  - the balance of evidence suggests a discernible
  human influence on global climate being
  confirmed
• Climate Changes appear to be mainly local and
  regional rather than global
• Most change is being observed in the Northern
  Hemisphere

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What is Causing the Climate Change?

• What is the latest data?
• IPCC Science Working Group Technical Summary
• How do the theories stack up against the data?
• What theories eliminated or reduced?
• Of the remaining theories which is more strongly
  supported?
• What are the implications?

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Latest Data Indicates

• Globally atmospheric GHGs are up.
• Large unexplained CO2 sink in North America
  reported
• Globally average temperatures are higher
• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10
  years
• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time
  highs
• More over land than over oceans. Cooling in some
  areas.
• Growing Season Increase by 1 to 4 days per
  decade in northern hemisphere

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Latest Data Indicates

• Precipitation increases (5-10) over most land
  areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern
  Hemisphere
• No observed increase in southern hemisphere
• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme
  weather.
• Heavy precipitation events increased in northern
  latitudes
• Likely a 2 to 4 increase in the frequency of
  heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in
  Northern Hemisphere

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Latest Data Indicates

• Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased in Northern
  Hemisphere by several percent per decade
• Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by
  2
• Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal
  temperature range

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Latest Data Indicates

• Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere decreasing
• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent.
• Non-polar glaciers Widespread retreat except in
  coastal areas.
• El Nino Events More frequent, persistent and
  intense over the last 30 years.
• Coral bleaching Increased esp. during El Nino.
• No acceleration in sea level rise detected over
  last century

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Seven Climate Change Views

• Warming is Not Happening
• Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels
• GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation
• Energy Use Warming Atmosphere
• Human Impact Minor or Beneficial
• Cant Afford the Solutions
• Water Emissions - Main Climate Change Driver

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Warming Not Happening?
Likely
High Uncertainty
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Waste of Fossil Fuels

• Should be a real concern.
• Even coal wouldnt last for ever.
• A good reason on its own to reduce fossil fuel
  use.
• Much of the use is for status or convenience not
  need.
• Root problem is societal. Live for today
  attitude

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GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation

• Should be happening and increasing
• Experts cant agree on how much it contributes
• Models force fit to history with scaling factors
  and adjustments and used to forecast, but still
  dont model clouds, land-use or other human
  factors.
• GHG must be global yet much of the data only
  shows changes in Northern Hemisphere

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Energy Use Warming Atmosphere

• Total anthropogenic energy generation is about
  550 ExaJoules/yr enough to warm atmosphere 1
  degree C per year.
• Most energy is turned into heat and reradiated,
  so would not build up enough.
• Some turned into water vapour
• Combustion or from Cooling Towers.
• Summary not a major impact.

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Human Impact Minor or Beneficial

• Growing evidence that it is not minor and that it
  has been rapidly growing in the last 30-50 years.
• Cost vs. Benefits tough to balance
• More growing days and warmer north
• More severe storms, loss of natural habitat
• Increases in severity where losses are greatest
  in people, property or sensitive environments

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Cant Afford the Solutions?

• Depends on the cost of the problems and on what
  needs to be solved.
• Many energy reductions are very cost effective
  and have other benefits
• Reducing energy use is the most cost effective
  solution and most likely to reduce human impacts
  on climate no matter what the major cause is.

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Its The WATER!
The New Paradigm View
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Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr Tt/yr)
Source Global Warming The Complete Briefing
John Houghton
What is the impact of this!
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4
111
71
425
385
Land
Ocean
40 (10 due to human water use)
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Annual Global Water Withdrawals
Source Scientific American February 2001
Peter H. Gleick
Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get
cubic kilometers
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Water Emission Calculations

• Energy to Atmosphere
• 9000 x 109 GJ/yr (exajoules/yr)
• 15-20 times human energy use!
• Water to Atmosphere (mainly in Northern
  Hemisphere)
• 4,000 Gt/yr
• -10 of Surface flow to oceans
• 5 of Land Evaporation

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What Goes Up, Must Come Down

• Water Added to Atmosphere Must Come Out
• 5 of increase in net land evaporation matches
  5-10 increase in precipitation over land
• Water added in Northern Hemisphere, comes out in
  Northern Hemisphere after forming clouds
• When water condenses, heat is liberated
• Condensation in coldest areas so they warm the
  most.
• Energy ? melts ice, warms air water

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The Heat Pipe Effect
Day/Night Cycles
Water gives Up Heat and Falls In Cold Areas
Water Transport
Water added in Hot Dry Areas
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How Does This Theory Fit the Facts?

• Source is anthropogenic and increasing
• Should cause increased warming in cold areas but
  relatively little effect in temperatures
  elsewhere.
• Should cause increased rainfall and increase
  severity of storms ? Unusual patterns
• Increases night time low temperatures due to
  day/night cycling as dew point is raised

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Water Impacts

• Two thirds of global water use is for irrigation.
  Almost all in Northern Hemisphere
• Most of the rest for industry in same region
• Four countries account for half the worlds 670
  million acres of irrigated cropland
• Over 60 of the water added doesnt reach the
  plants
• Also tend to be located near or could affect
  areas experiencing the largest effects of climate
  change

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Top Water Emitters from Irrigation
Source Scientific American February 2001
Sandra Postel
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Feeding El Nino Arctic Warming?
El Nino
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Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers Warm/Dry
Out the Prairies?
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Summary for Water Vapour

• Water is an important climate change factor
• Source of water and energy for weather
• A 5 increase in land evaporation due to human
  water use should be a concern
• Higher water evaporation from dry areas (i.e.
  southern California) more likely to cause unusual
  weather patterns.
• Water is the immediate concern and problem.
  Climate change and water shortages/surpluses
  causing human/environmental disasters.

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Water Implications

• Improvements in irrigation practices may be more
  important than GHG reductions
• Reduce wasteful irrigation methods
• Select crops that suit the local climate
• These changes could be made with a fraction of
  the expenditures for GHG mitigation.
• Focus on the Agriculture Industry
• Many responses to GHG theory proposed make water
  situation worse
• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,
  nuclear power

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The Balance of Evidence - Says...

• Human Enhanced Water Evaporation SHOULD BE THE
  major factor in Climate Change Equation
• GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an
  indicator of energy waste so should still be
  reduced by reducing energy use
• Finding the right solutions means addressing the
  right problem.

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Does It Matter Which Theory is Right?

• Likely no theory is entirely right.
• Best strategy is to find Robust Solutions
  which
• Minimize Water added to atmosphere
• Reduce Energy Waste ? Fossil Fuel Consumption ?
  Reduce GHG emissions
• Create Wealth (improve standard of living)

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New Paradigms? Not Really

• Sustainable Development is based on
• Reduce
• Waste of energy, water and other resources on
  trivial wants so they are there when future
  generations need them.
• Reuse Resources more than once
• Recycle If you cant do the first two.
• Replace Feel good placebo in last place.
  Wasting Renewable Power is still a waste of
  resources
• Is it really green?

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Summary of Our Choices

• We have the ability to choose our responses
• We should make the choices proactively
• We should ensure the right actions are taken
  rather than the politically correct or expedient
  ones.
• There is more to life than increasing its
  speed. - Mahatma Ghandi

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Discussion and Challenges

• What adds up and what should we do about it?
• What is missing?
• What next?

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Contact Information

• New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.
• c/o Advanced Technology Centre
• 130, 9650-20 Avenue
• Edmonton, Alberta
• Canada T6N 1G1
• tel [phone]
• fax [phone]
• email bruce_at_newparadigm.ab.ca
• web www.newparadigm.ab.ca