Early Selection in Hungary A Possible Cause of High Educational Inequality

1
Early Selection in HungaryA Possible Cause of
High Educational Inequality

• Daniel Horn
• research fellow
• Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of
  Sciences
• and
• Department of Economics, Eötvös University
  Budapest
• horn_at_econ.core.hu

2
Motivation

• Age of selection is likely the best proxy for
  comprehensive schooling
• The later the first age of selection the longer
  students will study in heterogeneous groups
• Comprehensive schooling is said to be decreasing
  inequality (Meghir and Palme 2005, Pekkarinen,
  Uusilato and Kerr 2007)
• and tracking correlates with higher inequality
  across countries (e.g. Hanushek and Woessmann
  2005, Pfeffer 2008, Horn 2009)
• Why?
• Teachers matter (Hanushek, Rivkin and Kain 2005
  McKinsey 2007)
• Peers matter (Sacerdote 2001, Hanushek et al
  2003.)
• So the longer one studies in selected groups the
  larger the difference will be
• The Hungarian system is an ideal case for
  testing early selection

3

• Inequality in the Hungarian education system is
  especially high

The system of education is certainly not
comprehensive
Source OECD PISA 2009 Vol. II, p 44.
4
The Hungarian public education system
Early-selective tracks 8-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac
HUNGARY HUNGARY HUNGARY 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010
level ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3
1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle  
Grade Grade   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
kindergarten kindergarten kindergarten general school general school general school general school         academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                               
                                1
                               
                      vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                       (technikum)  (technikum)      
                                1
                               
                      vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c    
                       (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)        
                           
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18

5
Questions

• Are early-selective tracks status selective?
• Do early-selective tracks have a higher
  value-added?
• Do longer, 8-year-long academic tracks further
  increase differences, as compared to the
  6-year-long academic tracks?
• Do others lose because of the early selection?
• If answers are affirmative the early selective
  tracks increase initial differences between
  students of different status. Thus, the Hungarian
  system is more unequal (ceteris paribus) because
  of the early selection.

6
Data

• National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC)
• Annually collected since 2006, PISA-like survey
  of all 6th, 8th and 10th grade students (see
  below)
• Reading and mathematical literacy
• Approximate mean 1500, sd 200 (before 2010
  500/100)
• Cross cohort and cross year comparable. Mean 1500
  and sd 200 is only for 2008. 6th grade
• I standardize these, 0 mean 1 sd, for each year,
  cohort and subject
• Detailed background questionnaires
• generated Socio-economic status (SES) index 0
  mean 1 sd
• Individual panel since 2008

7
The NABC cohorts
  4th grade 6th grade 8th grade 10th grade
2003 0 20 students from every school 0 20 students from each track from each school
2004 0 20 students from every school 20 students from every school 20 students from each track from each school
2006 full cohort every student from a sample of 195 schools full cohort 30 students from each track from each teaching site
2007 full cohort every student from a sample of 200 schools full cohort 30 students from each track from each teaching site
2008 every student from a sample of 200 schools full cohort full cohort full cohort
2009 every student from a sample of 200 schools full cohort full cohort full cohort
2010 every student from a sample of 200 schools full cohort full cohort full cohort
Individual identification numbers available
8

• Descriptive statistics

9
Percentage of students in different tracks
HUNGARY HUNGARY HUNGARY 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010
level ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3
1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle  
Grade Grade   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
kindergarten kindergarten kindergarten general school general school general school general school         academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                               
                                1
                               
                      vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                       (technikum)  (technikum)      
                                1
                               
                      vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c    
                       (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)        
                           
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18

3,0
3,8
3,9
5,3
4,8
30,3
96,2
90,8
40,2
21,7
10
Average math test scores
HUNGARY HUNGARY HUNGARY 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010
level ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3
1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle  
Grade Grade   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
kindergarten kindergarten kindergarten general school general school general school general school         academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                               
                                1
                               
                      vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                       (technikum)  (technikum)      
                                1
                               
                      vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c    
                       (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)        
                           
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18

1673
1782
1821
1756
1807
1675
1693
1704
1491
1615
1608
1598
1452
1450
11
Average SES index
HUNGARY HUNGARY HUNGARY 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010
level ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3
1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle  
Grade Grade   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
kindergarten kindergarten kindergarten general school general school general school general school         academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                               
                                1
                               
                      vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                       (technikum)  (technikum)      
                                1
                               
                      vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c    
                       (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)        
                           
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18

0,8
0,85
0,83
0,8
0,39
-0,059
-0,1
-0,81
12
Are early-selective tracks status selective?

• 1st question

YES! (Details in the paper, Due to time
constraint Sorry!)
13
Do early-selective tracks have a higher
value-added?Do longer, 8-year-long academic
tracks further increase differences, as compared
to the 6-year-long academic tracks?(6th to 8th
grade)

• 2nd and 3rd question

14
The model

• Model
• where, i-individual, s school (track), t
  time
• Y test score,
• X student charactersitics SES, Gender
• Z school characteristics track type, ed.
  provider (FE)
• Endogenity problem if Zst Zs(t-1)
• Thus if students do not change tracks during
  observations, track has an effect on Y(t-1) as
  well
• students start general tracks six years, and
  8-yr-ac tracks two years earier than we measure
  them. Thus 6th grade test scores reflect the
  quality of the given track
• Note 6-yr-ac value-added is unbiased

15
Endogenity problem

• Sollution Instrumental variable estimation
• instrument distance from home to nearest 6-yr-ac
  and 8-yr-ac
• assumption distance has an effect on the chance
  to enter an early-selective track, but it does
  not affect test scores
• Problem with instrument
• correlates with average SES
• establishment of early selective tracks was
  demand driven
• correlates with average teacher quality
• teachers are also selected just as students
• Easing the problem
• Spliting the sample decreases the bias
• 8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac vs. general
• Track effects in IV estimation are
  underestimated
• the stronger the correlation bw. distance and
  teacher quality the more effect the instument
  absorbs.

16
OLS
  (7) (8)
VARIABLES Read Math
     
General school -0.0383 0.0221
(0.0145) (0.0208)
8-yr-ac 0.0732 0.138
(0.0188) (0.0304)
Standardized reading score, 6th grade 0.565 0.165
(0.00496) (0.00555)
Standardized math score, 6th grade 0.230 0.630
(0.00493) (0.00645)
SES 0.0832 0.0597
(0.00379) (0.00441)
female 0.222 -0.131
(0.00493) (0.00537)
Education provider FE. y y
Constant -0.100 0.0227
(0.0148) (0.0215)

Observations 82,211 82,210
R-squared 0.638 0.596
Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1
17
IV split sample
8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac 8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac 8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac 8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac 6-yr-ac vs. general 6-yr-ac vs. general 6-yr-ac vs. general 6-yr-ac vs. general
  (1) (2) (2) (3) (4) (5) (5) (6)
First stage Second stage Second stage Second stage First stage Second stage Second stage Second stage
VARIABLES 8-yr-ac Read Math Math General Read Math Math
                 
8-yr-ac 0.0810 0.228 0.228
(0.0600) (0.0831) (0.0831)
general -0.545 0.0114 0.0114
(0.226) (0.311) (0.311)
Standardized reading score, 6th grade 0.00694 0.545 0.188 0.188 -0.00970 0.561 0.165 0.165
(0.0143) (0.0119) (0.0138) (0.0138) (0.00178) (0.00557) (0.00636) (0.00636)
Standardized math score, 6th grade -0.0232 0.217 0.702 0.702 -0.0282 0.215 0.625 0.625
(0.0185) (0.0106) (0.0138) (0.0138) (0.00359) (0.00840) (0.0113) (0.0113)
SES -0.0183 0.0483 0.0744 0.0744 -0.0194 0.0720 0.0591 0.0591
(0.0120) (0.00842) (0.00876) (0.00876) (0.00240) (0.00594) (0.00797) (0.00797)
female 0.0284 0.190 -0.244 -0.244 -0.00673 0.219 -0.127 -0.127
(0.0174) (0.0138) (0.0145) (0.0145) (0.00283) (0.00545) (0.00593) (0.00593)
distance bw. home and closest 8-yr-ac -0.0169
(0.00155)
distance bw. home and closest 6-yr-ac 0.00198
(0.000238)
Ed. provider FE y y y y y y y y
Constant 0.515 -0.0240 -0.0421 -0.0421 0.949 0.391 0.0305 0.0305
(0.0598) (0.0299) (0.0435) (0.0435) (0.00602) (0.220) (0.301) (0.301)

Observations 7,986 7,989 7,986 7,986 78,744 78,743 78,744 78,744
R-squared 0.131 0.536 0.644 0.644 0.186 0.618 0.584 0.584
Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1 Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01, plt0.05, plt0.1
18
Estimated differences bw. tracks, reference
6-yr-ac
HUNGARY HUNGARY HUNGARY 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010
level ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 0 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3 ISCED 3
1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 1st cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle 2nd cycle  
Grade Grade   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
kindergarten kindergarten kindergarten general school general school general school general school         academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                               
                                1
                               
                      vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a
                       (technikum)  (technikum)      
                                1
                               
                      vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c vocational training track ISCED 3c    
                       (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)      (ex-apprentice training)        
                           
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18

M 0,228 R n.s.
M 0,17 R n.s.
M -0,226 R n.s.
M n.s. R -0,545
19
Do others lose because of the early selection?

• 4th question

Yes, in math.
Students in general schools, where
early-selective tracks are available perform
worse in math bw. 6th and 8th grade, compared to
students in general schools with no
early-selective track around.
20

• Conclusion

21
Conclusion

• Early selective tracks are status selective
• (6-yr-ac tested)
• Early selective tracks have a higher value added
• between 6th and 8th grade in reading
• between 8th and 10th grade in math
• 8-yr-ac performs better than 6-yr-ac in math each
  year
• Students left in general tracks lose
• Early selection increases the gap between
  students of different social background

22
Thank you for your attention!

• Comments welcome!
• horn_at_econ.core.hu

23
Track type combinations within sites
Number of sites general 8-yr-ac 6-yr-ac 4-yr-ac technikum voc. train.
2463 1 0 0 0 0 0
228 0 0 0 0 1 1
162 0 0 0 0 1 0
95 0 0 0 1 1 0
91 0 0 0 1 0 0
82 1 0 1 1 0 0
78 0 0 0 0 0 1
72 1 0 0 1 0 0
52 1 1 0 1 0 0
50 0 0 0 1 1 1
43 1 0 0 0 0 1
23 1 1 0 0 0 0
23 1 0 1 0 0 0
23 1 0 1 1 1 0
15 1 1 0 1 1 0
14 1 0 0 0 1 0
8 0 0 1 1 0 0
8 1 0 0 0 1 1
8 1 0 0 1 1 0
7 1 0 0 1 0 1
7 1 0 0 1 1 1
5 0 0 0 1 0 1
3 1 0 1 0 1 0
3 1 1 1 1 0 0
2 0 1 0 1 0 0
2 0 0 1 1 1 0
2 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 0 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 1 0 1
1 1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 0
24
Spatial distribution of early selective tracks