A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System DAPPS

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A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction SystemDAPPS

• Mark Zunckel Eugene Cairncross
• CSIR
• Pen Technikon
• SAWS
• SRK

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Innovation Fund

• Dept Arts, Culture, Science Technology
• Call for consortia
• South African partners
• Large projects, e.g. 3-years
• Contribution in specified key areas, e.g.
  biotechnology, technology information

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Air Quality Management
Sources
Management Intervention
Chemistry Transport Deposition Dispersion
Receptor impact
Ambient concentrations Modeling or monitoring
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Air Quality Monitoring

• Site specific
• Selected pollutants
• Accurate
• Continuous
• Expensive
• Can be integrated with modelling

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Air Quality Modelling

• Spatially continuous
• A range of pollutants
• Estimation of concentrations
• Average concentrations
• Cost effective
• Integrated with monitoring

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DAPPS

• Sources Compile a comprehensive emissions
  inventory
• Meteorology SAWS forecast fields
• Dispersion Photochemical dispersion model
• Receptors Spatially resolved grid
• Forecast map of air pollution data and indicators
• Information to manage air quality

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The output, an example..
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• High
• Medium

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Communicating the forecast

• Air pollution data and indicators
• Map of an area with a number scale or color scale
  indicating potential health risk
• Interactive web site, updated ever 24 hours
• Daily newspaper? Other methods?

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What DAPPS will not do!

• DAPPS will have limitations
• Quality of input data
• Uncertainty in meteorological predictions
• Assumptions in dispersion model
• Spatial resolution
• Scenario modelling
• DAPPS cannot manage air quality

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Validation of the system

• Meteorological forecast
• On going validation at SAWS
• Source model
• Point sources
• Mobile sources
• Domestic sources
• Dispersion model
• Comparison of estimations with monitored data

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Project structure

• 3 year research development project
• Number of specialist components to be developed
  and integrated with one another
• Maintain a two-way communications with a number
  of stakeholders

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Project Plan

• Year 1 Project launch, components of DAPPS
  system running independently
• Year 2 Integration of the components
• Year 3 DAPPS running in test location
• Stakeholder involvement throughout the development

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Why Cape Town?

• Criteria for selection
• Stakeholders buy-in
• Data availability
• Digital information
• Issue (s)
• Range of source types
• History /other work
• Isolation from sources
• Local by-laws
• Running costs
• Complex meteorology

• Potential sites
• Durban (SIB)
• Richards Bay
• PE/Coega
• Cape Metro
• Vaal Triangle
• Platinum Area
• Pietermaritzburg

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Conclusion

• We believe that we can develop a system to assist
  in the management of air quality CMC is our
  prefered development site
• To make it happen, we need
• Your buy-in as key stakeholders,
• Your input now to help specify the outputs of the
  system to influence the design of the system,
• Your input throughout the system development.