By: Bob Pullman

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By Bob Pullman
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• A Guide to Studying the Weather
• And
• Having Some Fun in the Process

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Disclaimer

• This presentation is not a replacement nor
  substitute for information that is supplied by
  the National Weather Service nor any public
  government agency.
• In times of severe weather always follow the
  instructions of the NWS or government agency.

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Why this Presentation ?

• This presentation is about how to have fun
  learning a long forgotten art form.
• This is about how to grow a hobby.
• This is about paying attention to Mother Nature
• This is about how to recognize and understand
  phenomena in nature through observation and
  instrumentation.
• This is a bridge from the past to the present a
  reminder that simplicity is often the right
  course.

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Whos this Presentation For ?

• Hams
• Kids
• Parents
• Anyone who just wants to learn
• No previous qualifications necessary
• Those who question the standard attitudes

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My Background

• Grew up in Eastern Canada where temperatures
  range from -60F to 120F
• A climate that can kill you in 30 minutes in the
  winter
• A climate that fuels forest fires in the heat of
  summer
• A climate influenced by the Atlantic and prone to
  getting hit by hurricanes and noreasters

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Learning the basics.

• Due to the climate, survival was taught at a very
  early age
• Got my first weather station when I was 11 years
  old
• Always been interested in the weather
• Career has been spent in media, and technical
  documentation specifically in the defense industry

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The Scientific Method - Basic Science 101

• The 4 Steps of the Scientific Method
• 1. Observation description of a phenomenon or
  group of phenomena.
• 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the
  phenomena.
• 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence
  of other phenomena.
• 4. Performance of experimental tests of the
  predictions.

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Basic Science 101 Part 2

• The scientific method works best in situations
  where one can isolate the phenomenon of interest,
  by eliminating or accounting for extraneous
  factors, and where one can repeatedly test the
  system under study after making limited,
  controlled changes in it.

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Basic Science 101 Part 3

• There are circumstances when one cannot isolate
  the phenomena.
• This doesnt mean abandoning the Scientific
  Method which many places of education do these
  days.
• This is about learning from the phenomena with a
  wide open mind.

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Basic Science 101 Part 4

• Science is based on the correlation of facts, and
  not of opinion based consensus.
• A single data point does not imply a trend.
• The purpose of collecting data, is either to
  support, or refute, a perception.

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The Scientific Method at Work

• Lets ask a basic question
• Is Global Warming happening on other planets
  besides earth?

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Lets Look at Some Data -The Facts Maam - Just
the Facts

• Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists
  http//www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warmi
  ng_021009.html
• New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change
• http//www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060504_red_j
  r.html
• NASA looks at a monster storm on Saturn
• http//www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID2006
  1109-022035-4126r
• Global Warming Detected on Tritonhttp//www.scien
  ceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtm
  l
• Study Says Sun Getting hotter
• http//www.lubbockonline.com/news/092897/study.htm
  
• The Truth About Global Warming - it's the Sun
  that's to blame
• http//www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml/ne
  ws/2004/07/18/wsun18.xmlsSheet/news/2004/07/18/i
  xnewstop.html

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Temperature Variations

• Figure shows eight records of local temperature
  variability on multi-centennial scales throughout
  the course of the Holocene, and an average of
  these (thick dark line). The records are plotted
  with respect to the mid 20th century average
  temperatures, and the global average temperature
  in 2004 is indicated. The inset plot compares the
  most recent two millennia of the average to other
  high resolution reconstructions of this period.
• Source
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImageHolocene_Temper
  ature_Variations.png

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The Scientific Method at Work

• Lets ask another basic question
• Is there a connection between carbon dioxide
  emissions and Global Warming?

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Temperature Variations vs CO2 Levels over Time
"Although CO2 can have a minor influence on
global temperature the effect is minimal and
short lived as this cycle sits on top of the much
larger water cycle, which is what truly controls
global temperatures. The water cycle is in turn
primarily influenced by natural celestial cycles
and trends."Dr. Tim Patterson, Professor of
Geology at Carleton University
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Temperature Variations vs CO2 Levels over Time
There is no statistical correlation between the
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through
the last 500 million years and the temperature
record in this interval. In fact, one of the
highest levels of carbon dioxide concentration
occurred during a major ice age that occurred
about 450 million years ago. Carbon dioxide
concentrations at that time were about 15 times
higher than at present."
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Frequently Asked Questions - FAQ

• Is the earth really going to heat up due to mans
  use of fossil fuels?
• Im sorry Al Gore. But, mankind has little to do
  with the warmup of planet Earth.
• A Taste of the Truth
• http//www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artid17977
• Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report
• Data coincide with increasing solar
  outputWritten By James M. TaylorPublished In
  Environment NewsPublication Date November 1,
  2005Publisher The Heartland Institute

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Meaning?

• One of two things
• Mans growth and development on Mars is creating
  the same issues as on Earth.
• Or,
• The sun has increased in output and all the
  planets are getting the same conditions.

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Space Probes 20 Years Apart

• The hard cold facts that are available to the
  public (not hidden by some conspiracy theory) are
  that spacecraft that traveled by various planets
  and moons in the last few years have seen a
  unified increase in temperature from the
  spacecraft that flew by the same locations 20
  years ago.
• All report a solar system temperature increase on
  planets and moons across the board.
• Therefore Global Warming is NOT manmade.

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A Lesson Learned - Question Orthodoxy

• All knowledge is based on tested theory and
  hypothesis.
• Knowledge has nothing to do with political
  parties.
• If you dont believe something is accurate, go
  out and research the issue to find the real
  answers.
• Real facts dont lie always search for the
  truth.
• Question interpretations never settle on bad
  science or politics.
• Remember if there is a dollar to be made.that
  will take precedence over truth by somebody
  someplace in a capitalist society.
• The truth will always persevere.

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Now Back to the Program.

• Planet Earth, our home planet,
• IS undergoing climate change!
• Which way warming up or cooling down or just
  average? Irrelevant at this stage.
• Basic Physics 101 heat from the sun is energy
• The expression used for calculating heat is
• Q cTm
• where
• Q Heat in Caloriesc heat capacity in the units
  cal/gm-C, the heat capacity is defined as 1 for
  water.T change of temperaturem mass in grams
• No, we are not going to get into the calculations
  of the physics of the atmosphere!
• Lets simply assume that we have change taking
  place which creates stronger storms a fact
  found around the world and growing as each month
  passes.

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Increased Energy

• When there is increased energy in the atmosphere,
  you will have a change in the way the weather
  develops.
• The bottom line, is if we can not predict the
  weather globally with a steady model, then it is
  logical to state that we cant make long term
  predictions of what will or what wont happen.
• Predictions are only as good as the data and the
  understanding of the data.
• We have so much to learn a favorite quote I
  like from a USM biology professor.

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Global View Earth Conventional Image
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Global View Earth Thermal Imaging
Storm Systems
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The Big Picture

• Advantages
• You see the whole planet in one shake.
• You can see storms a long ways away.
• You can make generalized statements.
• Easier for computers to make predictions.
• Disadvantages
• Real hard to tell what the weather is like
  locally.
• Real hard to understand micro-climates.
• Real hard to predict local weather events.

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The Big Picture Prediction

• What can we determine?
• Large Scale storm intensity predictions are good
  for only a few hours changes too much not
  enough data nor experience to be accurate a day
  or two in advance.

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The Weather Scientists Favorite Tool - RADAR
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(No Transcript)
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Look Familiar?
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Large Scale Communications Systems Fail
Especially During Disasters (ie Katrina)

• All the large network communication systems
  either failed or were destroyed.
• Infrastructure that we relied on, was gone.
• Ham radio, CB radio, generators, and private
  weather instrumentation systems survived.

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What have we learned so far?

• Question orthodoxy.
• Dont count on the government (insurance
  companies?) to bail you out
• Global Warming is NOT manmade.
• Is this bad? No, simply the facts of life!
• Will this happen again? We hope not only time
  will tellthe odds are good that yes it will
  happen again and it could be this year.
• Have we learned anything?

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Predicting on a Small Scale

• Bad data is no data!
• Common sense rules
• Remember the weather rock?
• If the rock is white, its snowing
• If the rock is wet, its raining
• If the rock is moving, its windy
• If the rock is gone, then its been blown away!
• If a 500 mile wide storm is within 100 miles of
  you the odds are real good you are going to get
  hit by the storm!

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Listen, then Ask Questions

• Listening to an approaching storm or Mother
  Nature in general, and you have facts then
  interpretation of those facts is the learning
  process.
• You can make a difference for your own
  satisfaction by setting up your own systems for
  observing Mother Nature.

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Ways to Listen to Weather

• Ground Stations
• Temperature
• Relative Humidity
• Barometric Pressure
• Wind Speed
• Wind Direction
• Precipitation
• Weather Balloons
• Radar
• Sounding Rockets

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Ground Weather Stations
Ground weather stations rapidly collect wind
speed, wind direction, temperature, relative
humidity, and precipitation data and record it
for future analysis. Increasing numbers of
systems also post their information in real time
to the internet at such sites as
http//weatherunderground.com
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Weather Satellite Photographs
Photos transmitted from weather satellites can be
received using a conventional Hamtronics
receiver, satellite frequency antenna, WXSAT
analysis software
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Weather Faxes
The National Hurricane Center regularly
broadcasts via shortwave its WEFAX weather
service of forecasts maps translated by PC
software.
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Lightning Detection
Lightning can also be detected with conventional
antennas and receivers. Then, collected on a PC
for further analysis. Range up to 500 miles is
possible, with 250 miles normal. This makes an
effective early warning system for thunderstorms
and possibly tornados.
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Magnetic Effects
Thunderstorms and tornados produce magnetic
fields which get stronger as they approach. These
fields are easily monitored and captured via PC,
or basic chart recorders.
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New Orleans Tornado Signature
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New Orleans Tornado Life
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3D Spectrum Analysis
Combining computing and sensors allows the
capability for advanced spectrum analysis. Shown
above is a 3D EMF analysis of a tornado based off
of a three second data capture. The circular
effects of the funnel are easily visible and
provide a snap shot of the electrical activity
around a tornado.
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Frequently asked Questions (FAQ)

• Is studying weather expensive to do?
• Only if you want it to be!
• You can do this on a shoestring budget
• You can do this with old items around the house
• You can do this with yard sale items you can find

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Private Weather Radar for Homes

• Couple of problems with this concept
• Way too expensive for 99 of the population
• Send out a signal that you control and you get
  back a reply that only matches what you ask.
• Would suffer the same coverage problem that the
  major systems have.

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Developed Glenda Project

• I moved into the industrial side of weather
  research while living in Seattle back in 1994,
  and formed the Glenda Project with Dave Davis
  http//glendaproject.org
• Dave has a career background in rocketry and the
  aerospace business
• I have a heavy background in computers and
  instrumentation
• Solution deliver instrumentation via rockets to
  study the weather..not a new idea in itself.
• Our approachuse off the shelf components

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Glenda Project Typical Flight Profile
3 Deployment Phase
2 Boost Phase
1 Launch Phase
Note Propulsion is provided by reloadable/reusabl
e rocket motors giving the capability of
rapid turnaround between flights.
4 Recovery Phase
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Rocketry Fundamentals

• Once a rocket goes above a mile you simply cant
  see it.
• No point launching unless you have a chance of
  finding the rocket.
• Therefore, no point launching unless you have
  telemetry.
• Could one do micro-prospecting from a rocket?
• Could we learn more about the weather by
  launching instrumentation payloads into the storm
  fronts?

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Motivation for Products

• Need to define research goals and develop
  products to pay for further research.
• Basic high power rocketry, gets expensive
  quickly.
• High Power Rocketry requires licenses for the
  purchase of motors.
• Comprehensive government requirements for control
  and storage of motors and fuels (Homeland
  Security Regulations have increased controls to
  the extreme)
• How often do you launch, and when needed
  defining.
• FAA launch requirements are different than the
  hobby (no launch into clouds) rocket regulations.

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Defining Research Development

• The Goals of the Glenda Project
• The primary mission of the Glenda Project is to
  provide the capability to rapidly gather
  previously inaccessible localized microclimate
  data from altitudes ranging from ground level to
  40,000 feet and to return this data for immediate
  use.
• The Glenda Project is a reusable sounding rocket
  delivery system research and development program
  designed to place instrument packages into areas
  previously considered to be to hazardous or
  inaccessible using traditional platforms such as
  balloons, aircraft, helicopters, kites, etc.
• The Glenda Project rockets have the capability to
  collect temperature, humidity, barometric
  pressure, wind speed and other types of
  environmental data from ground level to 40,000
  feet.
• The rockets are designed to be launched into
  thunderstorms, tornados, and other volatile
  weather environments and to return intact with
  the collected data.

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Back to the Program.

• Okay how do you know when to launch?
• Storm chasers go in search of storms for
  pictures, radar analysis, and thrills.
• Storm chasers have lots of open room on the
  plains in Washington state you have mountain
  ranges, coulees and empty desert and not
  necessarily in that order.
• In Mississippi you can do research on storms
  however tornado chasing is dangerous due to lack
  of evacuation routes.

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What Has Glenda Learned?

• Celebrating 10 Years of Research and Development
  1997 2007
• Glenda has three methods of collecting data
• Active Flight Data Collection Systems -
  Transmitters
• Passive Flight Data Collection Systems
  Dataloggers
• Ground Stations

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Identifying Phenomena

• Bottom Line - Identifying the approaching weather
  phenomena to determine whether to go or no go
  chase or hide.
• Weather conditions happen at altitude before
  being perceived by ground stations.
• Only way one can do that is with long range, or
  satellite sensors.
• Weather services do this with radar.

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In Conclusion

• The Scientific Method generates more reliable
  data, than political consensus.
• Localized systems tend to be more robust in
  disasters.
• There are multiple ways to listen to the weather.

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More Information

• Websites
• http//pullmangeosciences.com
• http//glendaproject.org
• Cell phone or Dialup Weather Website
• http//pullman.net/w/0.html
• Email Bob Pullman
• pullman_at_pullman.net
• Glenda Demo for NWS/NOAA (open to public)
• Pendleton Airport, Pendleton, Oregon
• Saturday, May 19th, 2007