Introduction to the Fire Effects Tradeoff Model

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Introduction to theFire Effects Tradeoff Model

• Mark D. SchaafAir Sciences Inc.Portland, Oregon

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Outline

• Overview of FETM
• Capabilities
• Tree Diagram Structure
• Example Outputs
• Concluding Remarks

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Overview

• Landscape-scale disturbance model
• Designed to simulate the long-term effects of
  management activities and natural disturbances on
  vegetation
• Vegetation composition
• Wildland fire acres burned
• Residue loading and consumption
• Smoke production
• Fire and fuel treatment costs

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Overview

• Also designed to demonstrate tradeoffs between
  different types of disturbances (for example,
  prescribed fire vs. wildfire acres and emissions)
• Focus is on fire behavior and effects (by
  vegetation class, and for the entire landscape)

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Overview

• StochasticNumber of fire starts per year treated
  as random variable
• DynamicDeals with annual changes over any future
  time period, 1 to 300 years
• Non spatialResults are tracked by vegetation
  class (FCC), without regard to location

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Overview

• Public domain software
• Designed for use by any organization (federal,
  state, private)

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Capabilities

• Incorporates use of multi-layer fuel
  characteristic classes (FCC) to describe
  current/future vegetation
• Single or multiple disturbances
• Management activities (e.g., thinning)
• Insects disease
• Fire
• Succession (absence of disturbance)

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Capabilities

• Comprehensive treatment of fire
• Incorporates state-of-the-science models
• CONSUME
• NFDRS Calculations
• Fire type algorithm used in FARSITE
• PC Historical Analysis (PCHA) model
• Interagency Initial Attack Assessment (IIAA) model

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Capabilities

• Allows management activities to be scheduled
  year-by-year.
• Links weather/surface loading/stand
  characteristics to fire behavior and number of
  wildfire acres
• Allows user to look at single-sequence fire
  effects, and expected fire effects (average of
  multiple sequences)

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Capabilities

• Easy to use (with good team selection)
• Fast run times
• Produces multiple graphs and tables
• Capability to cut and paste results into
  documents

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Tree Diagram Structure

• Windows-based
• Expandable index tree format on left-hand side
• Data input and output forms displayed on
  right-hand side

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Methodology
Current VegetationDescription
Rx Fire Treatment Schedule
Collect Data
Parameterize FETM
HistoricalFire Data
Define Scenarios
Historical Weather
Run Model
Report Results
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Methodology
Collect Data
Define FCCs
Populate Effects Matrices
Parameterize FETM
Map FCCs to Fire Behavior Models
Calculate Crown Loading
Define Scenarios
Define Weather Classes
Calculate Fire Typeby Weather Class
Run Model
Report Results
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Methodology
Collect Data
Select Disturbances
Select FCCs
Parameterize FETM
Select Simulation Period
SelectPollutants
Define Scenarios
Select Economic Assumptions
Run Model
Select Number of Iterations
Report Results
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Methodology
Collect Data
Parameterize FETM
Define Scenarios
Run Model
Report Results
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Methodology
Collect Data
Parameterize FETM
Define Scenarios
Run Model
Report Results
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Example Outputs
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed FireNorthern Mixed
Chaparral
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Example Outputs
Alternative 2 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per
YearNorthern Mixed Chaparral
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Example Outputs
Alternative 3 15,000 Chaparral Acres Per
YearNorthern Mixed Chaparral
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Example Outputs
Alternative 4 30,000 Chaparral Acres Per
YearNorthern Mixed Chaparral
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Example Outputs
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
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Example Outputs
Alternative 2 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
Alternative 3 15,000 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
Alternative 4 30,000 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
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Example Outputs
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
Alternative 2 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
Alternative 3 15,000 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
Alternative 1 No Prescribed Fire
Alternative 4 30,000 Chaparral Acres Per Year
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Example Outputs
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Concluding Remarks

• State-of-the-science model that can be used to
  predict future landscapes and effects under
  different management strategies and fire
  protection policies
• Similar in capability to other landscape models
  (e.g., SIMPPLLE, VDDT), but addresses fire
  effects in a more comprehensive manner

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Concluding Remarks

• The model, users guide, and technical
  documentation are available from Jim Russell,
  Region 6 Air Program Manager (jrussell01_at_fs.fed.us
  ).
• By April, FETM will be available for download
  from a web page linked to the Region 6 Air
  Quality web site.

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Introduction to the Smoke Impact Spreadsheet
(SIS) Model

• Mark D. SchaafAir Sciences Inc.Portland, Oregon

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Outline

• Overview
• Capabilities
• Example Screen Shots
• Concluding Remarks

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Overview of SIS

• Simple-to-use, screening level emissions and
  dispersion modeling system.
• Development sponsored by USDA Forest Service
  Region 1 Air Quality Program (Ann Acheson, Bob
  Hammer)

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Overview of SIS

• Uses state-of-the-art modeling techniques (e.g.,
  FOFEM5 emissions model, CALPUFF dispersion
  model).
• Goal to minimize development costs by using
  existing tools rather than creating an entirely
  new application.

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Overview of SIS

• Microsoft Excel provides user interface
• First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM5) provides
  front-end emissions calculator
• CALPUFF performs plume rise and downwind
  dispersion calculations
• CALPOST averages the CALPUFF outputs

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Capabilities

• Computes 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations
  along line of downwind receptors
• Up to 10 co-located burn units, each with
  different areas and ignition start times.

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Capabilities

• Flat or complex terrain (affects airflow and
  receptor locations)
• Uses single set of meteorological conditions
  (wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature,
  stability class, mixing height).
• Time and persistence factor accounts for
  changing meteorological conditions over periods
  exceeding 8 hours.

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Capabilities
Co-Located Areas
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Line of Receptors
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• Burn units modeled as co-located buoyant,
  square, area sources.
• Receptors placed at regular intervals (0.1
  miles) downwind of, and centered on, the area
  sources.

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Capabilities

• SIS interpolates receptor elevations from a
  user-input terrain profile.
• SIS uses the CALPUFF plume path coefficient
  treatment option to adjust the plume height over
  complex terrain.

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Capabilities

• Automatic or user adjustment of nighttime
  stability conditions.
• Models wildfires, prescribed broadcast burns, or
  prescribed pile burns.
• Flaming and smoldering puffs are generated
  independently as the fire line advances across
  the source area.

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Capabilities

• Output Tables
• Input parameters
• Hourly emissions and heat production
• Maximum 24-hour average PM2.5 concentration
  versus downwind distance

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Capabilities

• Output Graphs
• Hourly PM2.5 emissions
• Maximum 24-hour average PM2.5 versus downwind
  distance
• Plume cross-section view for each hour of
  simulation

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Example Screen Shots
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Limitations
Comments

• Simple-to-use, screening level emissions and
  dispersion modeling system.
• Currently linked only to the FOFEM5 emissions
  model. May be linked to other models in the
  future.
• Suitable for modeling short-term fire events (one
  or two days maximum).

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Limitations
Comments

• Model is undergoing additional development.
• Newest version will be available by March 1 from
  Ann Acheson, Region 1 Air Program Manager
  (aacheson_at_fs.fed.us).

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Fire Spread Group
Fire Spread Group

• Used to calculate the portion of the sub-unit
  that is burning.
• Assumes the sub-unit is square.
• Size of the burning area (for CALPUFF) is given
  as
• Ab Length FL Depth
• where Length is the length of the sub-unit and
  FL Depth is the fireline depth based on the
  National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) fuel
  model (20 fuel choices).

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Fire Spread Group
Fire Spread Group

• Fireline depth is given as
• FL Depth SCmax (RT / 60)
• where SCmax is the maximum spread
• component and RT is the residence time
• (seconds) based on a function of the
• average element diameter.

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Fire Spread Group
Fire Spread Group

• For FOFEM, the sub unit burn duration Tburn
  (minutes) is
• Tburn Length /(0.75 SCmax)
• where SCmax is the maximum spread component.

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EPM to CALPUFF Equations
EPM to CALPUFF Equations

• EPM output is emission rate and heat release rate
  (Qh in J/s)
• CALPUFF requires area sources with the following
  stack parameters
• Eeff (Ab/p)1/2 Effective radius
• Tplume 1200 K Plume temperature
• Weff (8.8x10-6 Qh Tplume)/ g (TplumeTair)
  (Reff)2 Effective velocity

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EPM to CALPUFF Equations
EPM to CALPUFF Equations

• Effective velocity based on Briggs buoyancy flux
  (Fb) as incorporated in CALPUFF
• Fb (8.8x10-6 Qh ) (g (TplumeTair)
  (Reff)2)Weff/Tplume
• Not critical to have accurate initial values of
  Weff because CALPUFF uses the parameters to
  calculate the buoyancy flux.