The main need of our officers is a knowledge

1
Problem Solving
The main need of our officers is a knowledge
of the fundamental principles of tactics and
how to apply them. This knowledge is to be
gained not by studying rules, formulas, or
normal schemes but by practice in solving
problems. Such practice, combined with
knowledge of human nature and common
sense, is what makes a tactician.
MG John F. Morrison
former Instructor and Acting Commandant, USACGSC
1883-85, 1906-12
2
Purpose
To review the Armys problem-
solving process in an effort to
improve a leaders ability to make
effective, timely decisions.
3
References


FM 5-0,
Army Planning and Orders Production, OCT 04

Techniques of Structured Problem Solving
, Arthur B.
VanGundy
, 1981, Van
Nostrand
Reinhold Company
Inc.

Victims of
Groupthink
,
Irving L. Janis, 1972, Houghton
Mifflin Company Boston, p 9

52d ID Ft. Riley Memo 25-50,
52d ID (M) Staff
Officers Guide
, Feb 02

Appendix 1, Lesson 1 The Theory of Problem
Solving, Feb 99
4
Outline
Introduction.


Step 1, "Recognize and Define
Problem."

Step 2, "Gathering Information.

Step 3, List Solutions.

Step 4, "Testing Solutions.

Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and
Implementing Best Solution."

AAR/Summary.

Conclusion.
5
Problem-Solving in Practice
The Decision Briefing
The Staff Study
MDMP
Identify problem
Statement of problem
Body
List facts and assumptions
facts that influence
assumptions to fill gaps
Develop possible solutions
Courses of action
Research and collect data
Analysis
Interpret data
Comparison
Evaluate solutions
Recommendation
Prepare Study
Make/receive decision
6
Problem Solving Methods
What do they have in common?
Continuous
Process
refinement of problem,
data and
1. Recognize define the
solutions
throughout
problem
process
2. Gather information relative
to the problem
3. List possible solutions
4. Test possible solutions
5. Select the best solution
6. Implement the solution
7
Recognize and Define the Problem
Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."


Symptoms
vs
. problems
Problem statement


Step 2, "Gathering Information.

Step 3, List Solutions."

Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best
Solution."
8
A Problem is . . .

The difference between

What is happening and

What you want to happen

Defined as
Most staff officers

Well structured
find themselves
dealing with

Ill structured
medium structured

Medium structured
problems
9
Recognize and Define the
Problem

Defines the scope

What is our endstate/goal?

Stated as a question or infinitive

To determine . . . or,

How to . . .

Includes who, what, when, where and
why (as necessary)

Find the root cause
10
Gathering Information

Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

Step 2, "Gathering Information.

Facts
Assumptions

Gross Estimation

Information Sharing

Criteria Development

Determine Criteria PE


Step 3, List Solutions."

Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best
Solution."
11
Gather Information -
Facts

Known data

Verifiable information

Observed events, past or
present

Relate to all potential
solutions (Address raw data
separately)

Bear on the problem
12
Gather Information -
Assumptions

Valid

Likely to be true

Based on facts

Necessary

Essential for planning

Provide a bridge between the facts and what
you need to determine the best solution

Stated in future or conditional tense (will
or might)

Must bear on the problem (you wont
make them until you need them)

Must apply to all potential solutions
25
13
The Household Motor Pool -
Facts
Assumptions

Dont want to drive a foreign car

Is only interested in US vehicles

Have two kids

Would like ability to transport

Must have four seats would
family plus parents occasionally
prefer six or more seats

Would like to use vehicle for ski
trips

Look at truck or SUV

Have a boat that weighs 4,500
pounds

Bank has 16k in the rainy-day
fund

Will have approximately 24k

Trade-in value of vehicle is
for down payment
roughly 8k

Total price should not exceed

Budget will allow 500/month
40k
for 36 months

Monetary information and rates

Current interest rates are 8-10
will remain constant
14
Gross Estimation
Scope
Scope
Use it to

Check for errors
your
your

Explore/narrow options
problem
problem

Facilitate Group Planning
down
down
Use continuously,
throughout your problem solving
15
Estimation Technique
Make a
1
mental plan
2
Logical steps

Do calculations
No calculations


Round numbers
Check for errors
3
Sound reasonable?


Did you consider everything?
16
Criteria Development
Criteria - a standard on which a judgment or
decision may be
based

What is my mission/endstate?

Guidance

Who gave me the guidance (
Cdr
, staff, report)?

Is it first hand or filtered?

Be sure to attribute the information for later
discussion.

Does it constrain me?

Can I complete the mission (suitable)?

Do I have sufficient resources (feasible)?

Is the outcome worth the risks (acceptable)?

Is it a preference or a requirement?
17
Criteria Development (contd)

Define your solutions limits

Screening Criteria
Linking to

Must be met
Facts and
Assumptions

Always Go/No Go
results in

Required absolutes
objective

Determine which solution is best
analysis

Evaluation Criteria

Compare possible solutions

Like to have
vs
must have
18
Screening Criteria

What will eliminate (
screen
) possible
solutions?
Is it Suitable?
Is it Complete?
Is it Feasible?
Is it Acceptable?
Is it Distinguishable?

Supported by facts (and/or assumptions)

Screening criteria consist of . . .

Short, descriptive title

Definition, including must or must not
19
Elements of Evaluation Criteria

Short, descriptive Title

Definition based on facts/assumptions describes
how
youre evaluating your options

Unit of measure usually dollars, miles, etc.
what is your
raw data?

Benchmark based on facts/assumptions point at
which
the options are advantageous or disadvantageous

Formula defines how you use your benchmark if
option
is
lt
or
gt
BM, it is advantaged or disadvantaged (must be
one or the other)
20
List Solutions

Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

Step 2, "Gathering Information.
Step 3, List Solutions."

Develop/Display Raw Data


Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best
Solution."
21
List Possible Solutions

Have the facts/assumptions created any
potential solutions?

Do I need to further scope/narrow the
potential solutions?

Do I need assistance to determine
additional potential solutions?

Assemble Raw Data based on screening And
evaluation criteria
22
The Household Motor Pool
Raw Data
Fuel
Towing
Vehicle
Origin
Cost
Warranty
Econy
Cap
Seats
Tahoe
US
36
3/36
17
6600
6
Expedition
US
41
3/36
16
6800
7
Explorer
US
35
3/36
20
4860
4
Suburban
US
41
3/36
17
7500
9
Cadillac
US
52
4/50
15
8200
8
Land Cru.
Foreign
52
3/36
16
6500
8
Durango
US
36
3/36
17
4500
6
Outback
Foreign
32
3/36
27
2000
5
Hummer
US
104
3/36
?
5000
4
23
Test Solutions

Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

Step 2, "Gathering Information.

Step 3, List Solutions."
Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

Use of Screening Criteria

Use of Evaluation Criteria

Analysis of COAs


Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best
Solution."
24
Test Possible Solutions-
Screening Criteria
Facts
Assumptions

Dont want to drive a foreign car

Is only interested in US vehicles
Origin Must be made in USA.
Screening Criteria

Bank has 16k in the rainy
-
day
fund

Will have approximately 24k

Trade
-
in value of vehicle is
for down payment
roughly 8k

Total price should not exceed

Budget will allow 500/month
40k
for 36 months

Monetary information and rates

Current interest rates are 8
-
10
will remain constant
Screening Criteria
Cost Price must not exceed 40k.
25
The Household Motor Pool
Raw Data
ORIGIN Must be made in the US
Fuel
Towing
Vehicle
Origin
Cost
Warranty
Econy
Cap
Seats
Tahoe
US
36
3/36
17
6600
6
Expedition
US
41
3/36
16
6800
7
Explorer
US
35
3/36
20
4860
4
Suburban
US
41
3/36
17
7500
9
Cadillac
US
52
4/50
15
8200
8
Land Cru.
Foreign
52
3/36
16
6500
8
Durango
US
36
3/36
17
4500
6
Outback
Foreign
32
3/36
27
2000
5
Hummer
US
104
3/36
?
5000
4
COST Must not exceed 40K
26
Test Possible Solutions -
Evaluation Criteria
Short Title Cost
Definition The total cost of the vehicle
Unit of Measure Dollars
Benchmark 35,700 (average)
Formula
lt
35,700 is an advantage gt
35,700 is a disadvantage less is better
27
Test Possible Solutions-
Analysis

Look at each of your
COAs
in terms of
advantages/disadvantages

List both the raw data and the benchmarks

Show analysis in terms of
lt
or
gt

Show all evaluation criteria, not just most
important

Show the
decision-maker
ALL
advantages
and disadvantages
28
Test Possible Solutions-
Analysis of Tahoe

Advantages

Towing
--
6,600
lbs
(
gt
5,300
lbs
)

Seating
--
6
(
gt
6 seats)

Disadvantages

Cost
--
36k
(
lt
35.7k)

Fuel
Eff
.
--
17
(
gt
18 MPG)
29
Select and Implement The Best Solution

Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

Step 2, "Gathering Information.

Step 3, List Solutions."

Step 4, "Testing Solutions."
Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing

Best Solution."
Comparison

Crosswalk Criteria to Facts/Assumptions


Eliminate Unnecessary Information
30
Select the Best Solution
Comparison

Compare each course of action against
the other

Reorder (as necessary) evaluation
criteria from most to least important

Reorder (as necessary) potential
solutions from best to worst

Highlight the recommended solution
and its raw data so it stands out as best
31
Select the Best Solution
Comparison of COAs
Evaluation
Courses of Action
Criteria
(Raw Data)
(
Adv
. Formula)
Tahoe
Explorer
Durango
Cost
gt

(35k)
(36k)
(36k)
(
lt
35.7k)
Explorer
Tahoe
Durango
Fuel Economy
gt

(17 MPG)
(20 MPG)
(17 MPG)
(
gt
18 MPG)
Tahoe
Towing Capacity
Explorer
Durango
gt
gt
(
gt
5,300
lbs
)
(4,860
lbs
)
(6,600
lbs
)
(4,400
lbs
)
Explorer
Tahoe
Durango
Seats
gt
gt
(6 seats)
(4 seats)
(5 seats)
(
gt
6 seats)
gt means better than
32
The Decision Matrix
33
Implement the Solution
Crosswalk Criteria
Did you use all your facts?
Facts
Can you link all your criteria back to your facts?
Assumptions
Criteria
Did you make some assumptions
you didnt communicate?
34
Implement the Solution
Eliminate Unnecessary Information
Facts
Criteria
Vehicle doesnt meet emissions standards
Evaluation
Screening
gt
4 seats
Seats (more is better)
lt
40k
Cost (less is better)
Assumptions
gt
4500 lbs towing
Capacity (more is better)
Fuel Economy
(more is better)
Discussion
Narrowed scope to new vehicles
Narrowed scope to four/
all wheel drive vehicles
35
Summary
(1 of 2)

Recognize define the problem

Do you understand the scope?

Nature and complexity

Time involved

Experience (group vs. individual)

Gather information relative to the problem

Gather facts (attributable, verifiable)
ake assumptions (what can I verify in time?)

M

List possible solutions

Brainstorm

Consider at least two

Feasible, suitable, acceptable, distinguishable,
complete
36
Summary
(2 of 2)

Test possible solutions

Screening (absolute standards you must meet)
valuation criteria

E
(preferences/desired qualities based on
facts/assumptions
)

Select the best solution

Analysis (what are the advantages/disadvantages
of the solutions
?)

Comparison (how do they stand up against other
solutions?)

What does your gut say about the solution?

Implement the solution
-
make or recommend a
decision

Final check for errors

Eliminate unnecessary info before presentation
37
Conclusion
Poor execution can render the most
brilliant concept null and void, but the
most magnificent execution can rarely
offset the deadweight of a flawed
concept.
GEN W.E.
Depuy
, USA, Retired