Assessment and planning of the water resources under various scenarios in the Ganges and Indus basin: Glaciers contribution and WEAP modelling

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Assessment and planning of the water resources
under various scenarios in the Ganges and Indus
basin Glaciers contribution and WEAP modelling
Devaraj de CONDAPPA Marisa ESCOBAR Luna BHARATIPriyantha JAYAKODY
Stockholm Environment Institute International Water Management Institute
CPWF Basin Focal Project for the IG Basin 2 - 3
December 2009, New Delhi
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Objective

• Mac Kirby Eastham et al. (2008) gave an
  overview of hydrological water uses in the IG
  Basin.
• Objective here develop an application of the
  Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) in the Indus
  and Ganges basin so as to
• assess the water resources, in particular
  contribution from glaciers,
• model its utilisation / planning,
• and provide insight into some possible future
  scenarios.
• Outline of the presentation
• Brief introduction to WEAP.
• Input data gathered.
• Setting WEAP in the Indus and Ganges.
• Analysis of simulations
• current situation,
• scenarios.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)

• Developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute
  (SEI).
• Models simultaneously
• hydrology the water resources,
• planning uses of these resources.
• Hydrology
• model rainfall / runoff based on
• landuse
• soil parameters.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)

• Hydrology
• glaciers module
• models variation in glaciers area, streamflows,
• based on degree-day approach, i.e., streamflow
  calculated with the potential
• sub-division of acatchment

rain / snow temperaturethreshold (C)
degree day factor for ice or snow(mm/C/day)
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)

• Planning basically solved by a linear program
  (LP), which attempts to optimize
• coverage of demand sites,
• and instream flow requirements,
• subject to demand priorities, supply preferences,
  mass balance and other constraints.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Input data gathered

• Climate the TS 2.1 dataset from the Climate
  Research Unit (CRU).
• Observed streamflows
• International databases
• IWMI Upper Kosi (Nepalese part) and Upper
  Ganges
• some time series in the Indus extracted from the
  spreadsheet of Eastham et al. (2008)
• average annual trends from Jain et al. (2007) in
  the Ganges.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Input data gathered

• Observed streamflows

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Input data gathered

• Glaciers coverage

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Input data gathered

• Landuse from IGB Tool Kit (Global Land Cover
  2000)

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Input data gathered

• Water uses Irrigation, Domestic and Industries
• in India from Amarasinghe et al. (2007),
• in Pakistan from Habib (2004).
• Infrastructures
• canals internet Habib (2004) for the Indus
  Basin Irrigation System,
• large reservoirs Jain et al. (2007) internet,
• Google Earth for locations.

Madhya canal
Bisalpur reservoir
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Modelling units sub-basins

• Generation of sub-basins with respect to
• available observed time series of streamflows,
• large reservoirs or barrages,
• major river outlets (where some average annual
  flows were available).

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Modelling units subdivided by elevations bands

• First band 0 3,000 m,
• Then every 1,000 m.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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WEAP-Indus and WEAP-Ganges
WEAP-Indus down to Kotri
Hydrological objects
Water demands
WEAP-Ganges down to Farakka
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Reliability of WEAP-Indus WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Reliability of WEAP-Indus WEAP-Ganges
Calibration
Validation
Calibration
Calibration
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Reliability of WEAP-Indus WEAP-Ganges

• What can these WEAP applications simulate?

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis current situation rainfall

• Current situation period of reference last 20
  years of CRU data ? 1982 to 2002.

CRU rainfall
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis current situation water uses

• In the Ganges
• Adapted from Amarasinghe et al. (2007)
• For year 2000

• In the Indus
• Adapted from Amarasinghe et al. (2007) and Habib
  (2004)
• lumped demand for the Indus Basin Irrigation
  System
• For year 2000

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis current situation impacts of canals
In the Ganges
In the Indus
Average annual streamflows, simulated for period
1982 - 2002
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis current situation impacts of canals
Average monthly streamflows, simulated for period
1982 - 2002
In the Ganges, HaridwarUpper Ganga canal
In the Ganges, NaroraMadhya Lower Ganga canals
In the Ganges, TajewalaWestern Eastern Yamuna
canals
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis current situation contribution from
glaciers
DanyourBridge
Sukkur
Tarbeladam
Tarbela dam
Sukkur
Indus heavily depend on contribution from glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis increase in temperature

• According to the IPCC temperature 3.8 C at the
  end of the century in the Tibetan region.
• Same order by ICIMOD.
• ? considered 3 scenarios for 20 years
• 1C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of
  0.05C/year,
• 2C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of
  0.10C/year,
• 3C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of
  0.15C/year.
• Compared to the reference scenario period 1982
  to 2002.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis increase in temperature
Haridwar
Devghats
Farakka
Risks of floods
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis increase in temperature
Danyour Bridge
Tarbela dam
Sukkur
Risks of floods
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis increase in temperature

• Additional annual flow
• Additional flow mainly during the high flow
  season ? how to use it?
• Tricky as high discharge.
• Maybe extra flows in April, May June
  September October?

Ganges
Indus
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis reduction in initial glaciers

• What could be consequences of a drastic reduction
  in glaciers coverage?
• ? considered 4 scenarios for 20 years initial
  decrease in glaciers coverage by 25, 50, 75 and
  100.

0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Scenario analysis reduction in initial glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Analysis scenario reduction in initial glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current
situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
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Devaraj de CONDAPPA devaraj.de.condappa_at_googlemail
.com