??????????????? Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems and Market Operations

1
???????????????Integration of Wind Power into
Power Systems and Market Operations Impact
Solution
?? Ming Hu ???? (Operation Planning) ???????? (O
R) ??????????? (AESO)
2
???????????Albertas Electric Industry

• ???? (Peak load)9,775 MW
• ????? (annual load factor)80
• ???? (Installed Capacity)12,368 MW
• gt 280????? (generating units)
• 200????? (Wholesale market participants)
• gt 21,000 km ??? (Transmission line)
• 2????? (Interties)?BC?780MW? Sask.? 150 MW

?? Wind523 MW
?? Coal 5,893 MW
?? Other214 MW
???? Gas 4,895MW
BC
?? 869MW
Alta.
Sask.
gt 11,000 MW ?????? (Wind power Interest)
?????? ???? (Primary region)
300 KM
3
?????????????????The System Operation Challenge
of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration

• ???????????????
• How to handle the variability and uncertainty in
  System Operation
• ??????????? (????????)
• Understand the wind power variability (Wind power
  variability study)
• ??????????? (??????????)
• Understand wind power uncertainty (Wind power
  forecast pilot project)
• ????????????? (??????, 1)
• Understand and assess the potential impact on
  system operation (System Impact study, phase-1)
• ?????????????? (??????, 2)
• Assess potential mitigation solutions (System
  Impact study, phase-2)
• ??????? (????????????)
• Solutions implementation (Market Operation
  Framework)

4
???????????Understand the wind power variability

• AESO ???????,??? ????????????
• AESO work with wind industry, contracted GENIVAR
  (Phoenix Engineering) to conduct Alberta wind
  power variability study
• ???????2004??????????????? / Provided simulated
  minute-to-minute wind power data for the whole
  year (2004)
• ??2004???????,?????????????? / Based on measured
  meteorology data across southern Alberta of
  potential future wind farms and wind power
  production simulation model
• 4????????? / For 4 scenarios (250MW, 900MW,
  1500MW and 2000MW)
• 250MW?2004?????,?????? / The 250MW was the
  existing wind power scenario, for the purpose of
  wind power production simulation model validation
• ????? ????????????????? / The data was required
  and used later for AESO Wind power system Impact
  studies
• ??????? ????????????????????, ???????????,???????
  ? / A key conclusion of this study The wind
  power variability does increase with the wind
  power development level, but not proportionally
  due to diversification

5
???????????(2) ????? Understand the Variability
of Wind Power (2) Diversification

• ????????????????? ???????
• The combined variability of different wind farms
  Diversification impact
• ??????????????????????????,??????,????????????????
  ???
• The combined variability (random nature) is the
  vector-sum of each individual variability other
  than simple-sum
• ????? ????
  ?????
• positive correlate
  independent negative correlate
• ???? / ???? (Diversification Space / Time)
• ??????????? ???? / more smoothing effect for
  short-term variability
• ???????????? ???? (????) / less smoothing effect
  and more relay effect for long-term variability
  (Ramping issue)
• ????????????? / Also related with location
  distribution of wind farms and wind directions

6
??????????? ??????????Understand the
Uncertainty of Wind Power (1) - Forecasting Pilot
Project

• ??????????? ,??1? / Trial three very different
  forecasting methods over a one year period
• AWS Truewind (US)
• WEPROG (Denmark)
• Energy and Meteo (Germany)
• ????4????????????
• 4 different geographic terrains / wind regimes
  in Alberta
• ???????1-48???????,????? / T-1 to T-48 hours
  forecasted refreshed hourly (w/s, MWs, ramp rate)
• 7?????,5????? / 7 existing and 5 future
  facilities to represent geographic diversity and
  future expansion
• ??????????? / On-site Met Data Collection by
  GENIVAR
• ??????? / Independent analytical analysis from
  ORTECH Power

Funded by Alberta Electric System
Operator Alberta Energy Research
Institute Alberta Department Of Energy
7
??????????? (2) ??????Understand the
Uncertainty of Wind Power (2) - forecast error
example
?? False Alarm
???? Phase Error
?? Miss
????? Ramp Rate
8
????????? (3) Understand the Uncertainty of Wind
Power - (3)

• ?????????? / Uncertainty is different than
  Variability
• ?????????????-????
• Uncertainty is only the unpredictable variability
  forecast error
• ????????????????? / The relative degree of
  uncertainty of wind power is bigger than load
  based on todays forecast capability
• 1???? ????1-3,?? gt10 (100????)
• Day-ahead forecast 1-3 error for load vs.
  gt10 for wind power
• ????????????? / The prediction of wind power
  ramping is challenging
• ?????????,?? ??????????? / The standard
  accuracy metrics used to describe forecast
  performance may not be applicable or meaningful
  to system operations, such as MAPE, RMSE because
  they can suppress ramping signals
• ????????????,???????????????????????? / Need some
  accuracy metrics that can describe not only
  magnitude error, but also phase error,
  false-alarm rate, capture-rate, ramping rate
  error
• AESO??????????????/????? AESO developed an
  changing-event-based magnitude/phase accuracy
  chart to assess and understand wind power
  forecast capability

9
????????????????????Understand and Assess the
System Impact of Wind Power Variability and
Uncertainty (1)

• ?????????????????? / System operation involves
  maintaining a constant balance between supply and
  demand
• ??4????? / Four key aspects to achieving system
  balance
• ??????????????? / Ability to forecast the
  balancing requirement
• ????????? / Adequate system resources for this
  requirement
• ??,????????? / Supply sources (generation) and
  control sources (ancillary services)
• ??????? / Operating policies and procedures
• ??????? / Real-time operating decisions
• ?????????????4??????? / The variability and
  uncertainty of wind power may impact all of the
  above aspects
• 2?????????,????
• Two ways to analyze impact statistical and
  simulation

10
???????? / System Impact Analysis Framework
?????? OTC Violation
????
Operation Forecasting

• ????
• ????
• ????
• Interchange scheduling
• Energy market dispatch
• Ancillary services

?????? ???? System Overall variability
uncertainties
???????? Load variability uncertainties
????? Unscheduled Interchange
???????? Wind Power variability uncertainties
?????? ACE
?????? Operating policies procedures
???????? Other variability uncertainties
????2 CPS2
????1 CPS1
???? ?? Performance Assessment
??????/ Real-time Dispatch simulation
????????? Statistical analysis
?????????? Simulation of Energy market,
Regulating reserve Tie flow
??????? Simulated results of ACE, CPS2 OTC
violations
????????? Variability indices
11
??????1???????Statistic analysis example 1
hour variability
??????????? The variability of load and wind
power are independent ???????,???????????????????
????????? As wind power increase, the wind power
variability can increase the overall system
variability to a level that can not be ignored
and more dominate
12
??????4???????????Statistic analysis example 4
hour uncertainty
??????????????????????????? / The wind power
uncertainty can have ignorable or significant
impact on overall system uncertainty depend on
the penetration level and timeframes ????????????
?????? Wind power uncertainty could increase
faster than load as level increase
13
????????????????Statistic analysis example
Changing event-based analysis
????????? There will be more, longer and faster
persistent system changing as wind penetration
increase ???????????????? It put pressure on
system with limited ramping capability
900MW
250MW
2000MW
1500MW
??1400-1600MW ??5-6??????????4? / there is 4
changing events with duration of 5-6 hours and
ramp-down magnitude of 1400-1600MW
14
????,???????Simulation-based analysis,
Methodology and Assumption
Step 2 ????? 1-minute simulation
Step 1 ???????? Determine Energy Market Dispatch
(Every 20 minutes)
????????,????????????? Calculate the Energy
market movement with ramping capability
limitation and response delay
??20?????? Energy Market Dispatch for next 20
minutes
??????Current Supply- Demand Imbalance (ACE)
??????Expected Load change
??????? ??????? gt20MW Dispatch validation MW
threshold, if imbalance within /- 20MW, no
instruction is made and any imbalance is handled
by RR or ACE
??????????????? / Calculate the mismatch between
supply and demand
?????? Interchange Schedule change
??????????????? / Calculate required regulating
reserve movement to balance the mismatch 10 of
MW range/min
?????? Recursive Iteration Algorithm
??????Expected wind generation (persistent
forecast )
??????????????? Remaining mismatch is
simulated ACE

• Step 3 ?????????? / Calculate impact to system
  performance criteria
• CPS2
• OTC violation

15
???????,????????Simulation-based analysis,
Simulation model GUI
?????? RR range
Load
????Wind power
?????? SIM. RR dispatch
??????SIM. ACE
?????? HIST. ACE
??????Historical EMD
???????? SIM. CPS2 Violation
?? Ld
?????? Simulated EMD
-Ld
??????SIM. ACE
?????? Simulated Interchange
20-min moving minimum off-schedule
??????? TRM
?????? Export Limit
???? Interchange Schedule
??????Import Limit
Wind power data quality Tag
System data quality Tag
16
?????? 1 ??System Impact Study phase-1
conclusions

• 4???????(??1?????,????),???????????????????3??????
  ????????????
• 4 wind development scenarios (existing 3
  future), to identify the incremental impact
  effect. All 3 growth scenarios studied resulted
  in one or more performance violations.
• ??????????????????????????????????? / There is an
  observable relationship between increased wind
  power development, Decreased CPS2 performance and
  Increased OTC violations.
• ?????????????????????????????????
• It is highly likely that mitigating measures
  will need to be developed and implemented in
  order to integrate large scale wind power and
  maintain the reliable and safe system operation

17
?????????????????????? ??????2Investigate and
Assess Different Mitigation solutions of Power
Variability and Uncertainty (10) System Impact
Study phase-2

• ????????? / Effective mitigating measures for
  wind power integration are
• ?????? / wind power forecasting
• ????????????? / More energy market ramping
  capability
• ?????????????? / additional regulating or
  following service
• ?????? / wind power management
• ??????? / The ineffective mitigating measures
  are
• ??????? / Increases in AIES load
• ??????????? / Increasing the regulating reserves
  ramp rate

18
????????????????? AESO??????????Solutions of
Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty- AESO
Market and Operation Framework (MOF) for Wind
Power Integration (1)

• ?????????????????????????????????
• To integrate as much wind power into the Alberta
  system as is feasible without compromising system
  reliability or the fair, efficient and openly
  competitive operation of the market.
• ???????????????????????????
• The intent is to develop a solid starting point
  from which to continuously improve
• ????????????????????? / To set up proper
  mechanism to allow the market force lead to
  solutions optimization
• ???????????????,?????????????????????????? / The
  premise If the System Operator receives a
  reasonable forecast of wind power generation,
  then they can establish an operating plan to
  accommodate the forecast wind energy by using the
  following resources / tools
• ?? / Forecasting
• ?????? / The Energy Market Merit Order
• ???? / Regulating Reserves
• ???? / Wind Following Services
• ?????? / Wind Power Management

19
?????? ????AESO MOF for Wind Power Integration
Work streams

• ?????? / Market Operating Rules
• ?????? / Wind Power Management
• ?????? / Wind Power Forecasting
• ????????????? / Additional Accessory Services
  Forecast / Procurement
• ?????????? / System Operator Tools
• ???? / Interconnection
• ?????? / Queue Management Practices
• ?????? (????????) / Standards for Interconnection
  (Power Management Forecasting Requirement)
• ?????????? / Generator Scenario Development
  Methodology
• ????? / Transmission Planning
• ??????? / Diversity

20
??????????????MOF Work Stream (1) Operator
tools

• ???? / Engineering tool
• ??????????????????? / To design and test
  protocols, procedures before implementation into
  OPPs
• ????????? / Real-time system operation tool
• ???????? / To effectively manage
• ????????? / The procedures in the real-time
• ?????????????????? / complicated real-time system
  operation with Efficiency, Consistency and
  Transparency
• ??????????????????????Common basis for knowledge
  sharing, experience and continuous improvement

21
????????????? Work stream Tools Architecture
Load Forecast (EMS)
Energy Market Merit Orders (EMS)
Interchange Schedule or Forecast (EMS)
Generator Ramping Characteristic
RR Merit Orders (ETS or EMS)
ATC limits (IPCTCP)
Wind Power forecast
Additional Services
Uncertainty analysis
Wind Power Management
????? System Changes
??????? System Supplies Controls
22
?????? Question or Comments?

• ???? Related Information can be found at
• ????????????? / Alberta Wind Variability Study
• http//www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13847.html
• ????????????? 1 / AESO Wind Power System Impact
  Study - Phase1
• http//www.aeso.ca/downloads/Incremental_Effects_o
  n_System_Operations_with_Increased_Wind_Power_Pene
  tration_rev_2_3.pdf
• AESO???????????? / AESO Wind Power System Impact
  Simulation Model Presentation
• http//www.deq.state.mt.us/Energy/Renewable/Dispat
  chSimulationModel_v4.pdf
• ????????????? 2 / AESO Wind Power System Impact
  Study Phase2
• http//www.aeso.ca/downloads/AESO_Phase_II___Wind_
  Integration_Impact_Studies_final_20060718.pdf
• ??????????????? / AESO Market Operation
  Framework for Wind Power Integration
• http//www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13030.html
• AESO?????????? / AESO wind Power Forecast Pilot
  Project
• http//www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13825.html
• AESO??????????? / AESO Weekly Wind Power
  Operation and Market Reports
• http//www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/14246.html
• ???? / For more information
• http//www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13902.html
• ming.hu_at_aeso.ca, [phone]