IS THE SOLUTION OF THE ARMED CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA THE BEGINNING OF A MORE VIOLENT ERA?

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IS THE SOLUTION OF THE ARMED CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE VIOLENT ERA?

• Maria Lucia Uribe
• Geneva
• 21 November 2005

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HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT COLOMBIA?
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WHAT IS THE FIRST THOUGHT COMING TO YOUR MIND
WHEN YOU HEAR THE WORD COLOMBIA?
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COLOMBIA CERTAINLY

• Is the first producer of cocaine in the world
  (57 of world production)
• Has the oldest guerrilla conflict (more than 40
  years old)
• Has the biggest number of kidnappings in the
  world (3000 in 2002/2000 in 2003).
• Has the largest number of forced displaced people
  (207.607 in 2003/287.581 in 2004)

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• Has around 5 million people living in other
  countries, out of a population of 40 million.
• Has more than 800 terrorist acts per year.
• Has more than 20.000 kids involved in child
  prostitution.
• Has 2.7 million kids out of the educational
  system.
• Has a huge number of violations of human rights.

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• IT IS TRUE WHAT YOU HEAR ABOUT COLOMBIA
• BUT
• IT IS NOT FAIR TO KNOW ONLY HALF OF THE TRUTH

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Because Colombia also proudly

• Is the fourth biggest country in Latin America
  (Size of France, Spain and Portugal together).
• Has the oldest democracy in Latin America (L.A).
  (The most stable one)
• Was the strongest and most stable economy during
  the 20th century in L.A.
• Has never experienced hyperinflation or defaulted
  on its international debts.

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• Is the only country in South America to have both
  Pacific and Caribbean Coast.
• Is the second country in the world in terms of
  biodiversity.
• Is the world largest producer of emeralds (60).
• Is one of the most ethnically diverse countries
  in the Western Hemisphere.
• Is the third largest producer of coffee and
  bananas in the world.

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• Is considered to have the largest gold museum on
  earth. (30,000 pieces)
• Is the first in variety of palms in the world.
• Is the world largest producer of orchids.
• Is the second producer of flowers in the world.
• Ranks fourth in the world in palm oil production,
  drinking water supplies and nickel.
• Has 47 billion barrels of crude oil reserves.

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HOW COULD SUCH A BEAUTIFUL AND PROMISING COUNTRY
GET INMERSED IN ONE OF THE WORST AND LONGEST
CONFLICTS IN THE WORLD?
HOW CAN THE ARMED CONFLICT DESTROY NATURAL
RESOURCES, ECONOMY, SOCIETY AND DEMOCRACY ?

• HOW CAN THE CURRENT MEASURES AND THE
  INVOLVEMENT OF OTHER COUNTRIES CHANGE THE COURSE
  OF THE COLOMBIAN CONFLICT?

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• HOW COULD SUCH A BEAUTIFUL AND PROMISING COUNTRY
  GET INMERSED IN ONE OF THE WORST AND LONGEST
  CONFLICTS IN THE WORLD?

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CAUSES
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Short History

• 1960s Guerrilla groups emerged.
• 1970's Started as grower and exporter of
  marijuana.
• 1980's Escobar/Medellín cartel formed.
• 1990 Grower, processor, trans shipper of cocaine
  and heroin. At this stage illicit drug operations
  and paramilitary groups and guerrillas solidify
  relationship.

Fidel Castro. Inspiration for guerrillas in
Colombia
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• 1993 to Present Pablo Escobar was killed. Large
  syndicates are replaced by smaller, more
  vertically integrated trafficking organizations.
• Between 1995 - 1999 Colombian coca cultivation
  increased from 178,000 acres to 370,000 acres.
  Decrease since then.
• 1995 - 2005 The guerrilla fills in the void left
  when the leaders of the cartels disappear from
  the scene

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Why Colombia is involved in drugs business?

• Ideal climate and growing conditions.
• Availability of vast under-populated frontier
  land. Eastern and southern regions of the
  country.

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Why Colombia is involved in drugs business?

• Strategic location near to U.S. markets (Colombia
  is less than 3 hrs away from the U.S).
• Armed groups support the business.

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Who are those armed groups?

• The Guerrilla Groups (25,000 members)
• The Paramilitary Groups (15,000 members)

These groups consist of less than 40,000
individuals in the country (0,1 of the
population), which are located mainly in rural
areas.
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GUERRILLA GROUPS

• FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.
  Approx. 20.000 men, women and children.
• ELN National Liberation Army. Less
  than 5.000 members.

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PARAMILITARY FORCE

• Paramilitary groups. In response to years of
  guerrilla and drug violence in Colombia,
  Paramilitary groups emerged. Less than 15.000
  members.

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Where are guerrillas located?
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Reality about Drug Production

• Problem
• Colombia is still the largest producer of cocaine
  in the world.
• Cultivated mostly in the southern area.
• 2 of the countrys population lives there.
• Guerrilla groups get funds from drugs.

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Source UNODC
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Drug Consumption

• North America and Europe are the major drug
  consumers.
• An estimated 0.5 or less of drug production
  stays in Colombia.

USA/Europe Drug Users Growth
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1
2.3
0.8
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Cocaine Price (US/gram)
77US/gram
88US/gram
Source UNODC
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CONSEQUENCES
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HOW CAN THE ARMED CONFLICT AFFECT NATURAL
RESOURCES, ECONOMY, SOCIETY AND DEMOCRACY ?
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Economy

• Source of potential instability for Latin America
• Potential damage of market relations with other
  countries. (Colombia has solid Exports)
• Agricultural sector is strongly hit
• Holdback foreign investment
• Tourism sector is affected
• Oil sources are threatened
• Brain drain. About 5 million Colombians live
  abroad.

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THREAT FOR OIL SOURCES
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COLOMBIAN EXPORTS
Source DANE
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ECOLOGIC/ENVIRONMENTAL

• Damage in the Amazons environment.
• Jungles destroyed by the cultivation of coca and
  the millions of gallons of toxic chemicals
  (Amazon River).
• Over the last 15 years, the drug business dumped
  900,000 tons of toxic waste into the fragile rain
  forest eco-system (this is equal to 3 times
  Valdez oil spill).

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• The Amazon Basin is under threat from the
  continued cultivation of coca. The sowing of one
  hectare of coca requires the felling of 3
  hectares of virgin forest . In the last ten
  years, 1,361,475 hectares have been deforested in
  this way.

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• Natural Reserves threaten by guerrilla groups In
  the northern region of the Sierra Nevada de Santa
  Marta, some 40,000 indigenous people (Wiwas,
  Koguis, Kankuamos and Arhuacos) are struggling to
  survive and defend their culture.

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Democracy

• Local and national elections threaten
• Kidnapping of politicians.
• Guerrillas want to control rural areas.
• Press freedom is restricted.

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SOCIETY

• About 1000 Colombians lose their lives every
  year.
• Displaced people (last 9 years) 3 million.
  Children comprise approximately half of the
  internally displaced population.
• Human Rights Watch conservatively estimates that
  there are 11,000 children in the armed groups in
  Colombia.

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• Indigenous groups in Colombia are in danger of
  disappearing amid the country's continuing
  conflict.

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1500 Colombian refugees
4000 Colombian refugees
Between 2 and 3 million Internally displaced
people
30.000 Colombian refugees
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• HOW CAN THE CURRENT MEASURES AND INVOLVEMENT OF
  OTHER COUNTRIES CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE
  COLOMBIAN CONFLICT?

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MEASURES

• Colombia spends about US 1 billion annually on
  its struggle against drugs.
• Strength of military presence in rural areas.
• International Cooperation USA and European
  Union support.
• Alvaro Uribes Administration Democratic
  Security Policy and Justice and Peace Law.

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Public force expenditure as of GDP (1990 -
2006)
Source Ministry of Defense
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Democratic Security Policy

• Long term State policy, focused on the
  strengthening of the rule of law in all the
  Colombian territory and on the protection of the
  rights and liberties of the civil population.
  This policy compromises the State and the whole
  society.

• Four strategic objectives
• Recover the territorial control
• Protect the population
• Eliminate the drugs traffic
• Responsibility, efficiency and transparency in
  the administration of resources

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JUSTICE PEACE LAW

• IT IS A LAW THAT INTRODUCES JUSTICE AND
  REPARATION TO VICTIMS.
• IT IS A COMPLEMENT TO EXISTING NORMS IN COLOMBIA
  THAT SEEK TO ACHIEVE PEACE
• IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEACTIVATE A WAR MACHINE
  THAT HAS CAUSED GREAT DAMAGE IN COLOMBIA FOR MANY
  YEARS

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SOME RESULTS
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Terrorist Acts
Source Ministry of Defence
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ECONOMY GROWS
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Other results
Source Ministry of Defence
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PUBLIC ORDER IMPROVEMENT
Public Security Index, Citigroup (2000 2005)
Base Jan 2001- Aug 2002100, last 20 months of
Pastranas administration
Source Citigroup
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• IT IS NOT THE BEGINNING OF A MORE VIOLENT ERA IN
  COLOMBIA, IT IS THE BEGINNING OF THE DISARMAMENT
  OF THE ILLEGAL GROUPS, THE RECOVERY OF THE
  COUNTRY AND ITS ECONOMY, THE INITIATION OF A
  DIALOGUE WITH GUERRILLAS AND THE RESTORATION OF
  THE ORDER.

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THE SUPPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS
NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT POLITICAL MEASURES.
COLOMBIA ALSO NEEDS ASSISTANCE IN FACILITATING
THE REINTEGRATION OF DEMOBILIZED PERSONS TO CIVIL
SOCIETY AND GREATER SUPPORT IN HELPING THE
VICTIMS OF THE CONFLICT
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QUESTIONS

• What can be other solutions for the conflict?
• How can other countries support Colombia?
• How to avoid the potential enhancement of
  violation of Human Rights?

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• Flow
• Explanation of the Conflict, causes,
  characteristics, main actors. Relation drugs and
  guerrillas.
• How the conflict affects society, statistics of
  violence how it is affecting all the good things
  of Colombia. Human Rights.
• Measures taken by Uribes Administration and
  results, underlining negative effects.
• International Involvement. Possitive effects.
  What else can be done?

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• Important to mention all the details giving more
  explanation (not only reading), at the end I
  should mention, shortly and quickly more facts.
• Then during the presentation I will prove how the
  conflict is damaging the Country which is not a
  damage only for Colombia but for the world, and
  how the causes of the conflict also lie on our
  nature and resources.
• If it damages the world what can the world do for
  Colombia?
• The current measures will bring for sure more
  negative effects on human rights? How other
  countries can support?