The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title: The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model


1
The development of a more risk-sensitive and
flexible airport safety area strategy Part I.
The development of an improved accident frequency
model
????????? ??????
D.K.Y. Wong, D.E. Pitfield, R.E. Caves, A.J.
Appleyard Safety Science 47 (2009) 903912
  • ???? ? (???)
  • ? ???? (???)
  • ??? (???)

2
????
3
???????
  • ???????
  • ??????????
  • ????????(accident frequency model)
  • ???????????

4
?????????????
  • ???????????????
  • ???????????(NTSB)??????????????????????42
  • ?????????????????71
  • ???????????????????????

??,??????????????????!
5
???????
  • ????????????????
  • ?????? ????? ??

?????????????????,???????????????????,?????????
  • ?????????????????,?????????????????

6
???????
input
output
7
????
Takeoff overrun (TOOR)?Landing overrun
(LDOR)? Landing Under shoot (LDUS)?Crash after
takeoff (TOC)
???NTSB??????, ??????????????(Normal Operation
Data, NOD)
????????(Logistic Regression)?????????? ??????
??Nagelkerke R-Squared?ROC ?? (Receiver Operating
Characteristics)????????
?????????????????????!
8
???????
  • ????
  • ?NTSB????,??
  • 199?Landing Overrun,
  • 122? Landing Undershoots,
  • 52? Takeoff Overrun,
  • 67? Crash after Takeoff
  • NOD??(???????)
  • ????????(???????)??
  • ?78???,2000-2005?????48,924,040?data
  • ?????????????????????
  • ????2002-2004?,2??5??8??11??????242,420?NOD?

9
??-Logistic Regression
  • ????

?????????? b ?
??????????????????b0?
???????,t1/t01 ?NOD??,t1/t0 242420/630792133
3.84310-4
10
??????
  • ??17???,?????(9 blocks)?
  • ????????????????
  • ??????block??????????

11
????
LDUS
LDOR
TOOR
TOC
12
????
  • ????????????

???block???,R2??
??,?????????????????,??????????R2?????!
13
ROC Curve ?????
  • ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristics)??
    ???????????????????????

Model R2 C value
LDOR 0.269 0.897
LDUS 0.316 0.908
TOOR 0.157 0.858
TOC 0.227 0.868
14
?????
  • ????????????????,???????????NOD??????????????
  • ????????????????
  • ????????,?????????????????????

15
???? ????!
  • Thank you for your attention!
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