Title: The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model
1The development of a more risk-sensitive and
flexible airport safety area strategy Part I.
The development of an improved accident frequency
model
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D.K.Y. Wong, D.E. Pitfield, R.E. Caves, A.J.
Appleyard Safety Science 47 (2009) 903912
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2????
3???????
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- ????????(accident frequency model)
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4?????????????
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- ???????????(NTSB)??????????????????????42
- ?????????????????71
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??,??????????????????!
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6???????
input
output
7????
Takeoff overrun (TOOR)?Landing overrun
(LDOR)? Landing Under shoot (LDUS)?Crash after
takeoff (TOC)
???NTSB??????, ??????????????(Normal Operation
Data, NOD)
????????(Logistic Regression)?????????? ??????
??Nagelkerke R-Squared?ROC ?? (Receiver Operating
Characteristics)????????
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8???????
- ????
- ?NTSB????,??
- 199?Landing Overrun,
- 122? Landing Undershoots,
- 52? Takeoff Overrun,
- 67? Crash after Takeoff
- NOD??(???????)
- ????????(???????)??
- ?78???,2000-2005?????48,924,040?data
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- ????2002-2004?,2??5??8??11??????242,420?NOD?
9??-Logistic Regression
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??????????????????b0?
???????,t1/t01 ?NOD??,t1/t0 242420/630792133
3.84310-4
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- ??17???,?????(9 blocks)?
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- ??????block??????????
11????
LDUS
LDOR
TOOR
TOC
12????
???block???,R2??
??,?????????????????,??????????R2?????!
13ROC Curve ?????
- ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristics)??
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Model R2 C value
LDOR 0.269 0.897
LDUS 0.316 0.908
TOOR 0.157 0.858
TOC 0.227 0.868
14?????
- ????????????????,???????????NOD??????????????
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15???? ????!
- Thank you for your attention!