DOE-OBER Workshop on Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research

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DOE-OBER Workshop onScience Challenges and
Future Directions Climate Change Integrated
Assessment Research

• Bob Vallario
• Office of Science
• Office of Biological Environmental Research
• September 1, 2009
• bob.vallario_at_science.doe.gov

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Workshop Purpose

• Identify research needs and opportunities for
  understanding climate change Integrated
  Assessment.
• Provide an assessment of where the science and
  technology now stand and where barriers to
  progress might exist
• Describe potential directions for fundamental
  research that can be pursued to meet these goals

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2 IARP
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
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Workshop Scope

• Explore research ideas and emphases that will
  help shape the future of the IARP and respond to
  the rapidly changing scientific questions and
  challenges.  
• Address needs from global and national to
  regional and local scales and connections between
  the Integrated Assessment Modeling Earth System
  Modeling and Impact, Adaptation, and
  Vulnerability modeling communities. 
• Strengthen the scientific foundations and rigor
  upon which Integrated Assessment is based and
  look boldly and comprehensively at the research
  needs that the nation must address to move
  forward in mitigation, vulnerability, and
  adaptation planning. 

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
3 IARP
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Workshop Logistics

• November 1314, 2008
• Key Bridge Marriott, Arlington, VA
• General introduction and overview sessions,
  followed by nine focused technical sessions,
  concluding with wrap-up session and report out by
  rapporteurs

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
4 IARP
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Workshop Leadership

• External Chair
• Anthony C. Janetos, Joint Global Change Research
  Institute
• Session Co-Leads
• Leon Clarke, Joint Global Change Research
  Institute
• Bill Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National
  Laboratory
• Kris Ebi, ESS, LLC
• Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research
  Institute
• Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory
• Jake Jacoby, Massachusetts Institute of
  Technology
• Ken Judd, Stanford University
• Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
5 IARP
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Workshop Leadership (Contd.)

• Session Co-Leads
• Richard Newell, Duke University
• Dennis Ojima, The H. John Heinz III Center for
  Science, Economics, and the
  Environment
• Graham Pugh, U.S. DOE, U.S. Climate Change
  Technology Program
• Alan Sanstad, Lawrence Berkeley National
  Laboratory
• Peter Schultz, U.S. Global Change Research
  Program
• Rick Stevens, Argonne National Laboratory
• John Weyant, Stanford University
• Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Climate and Environmental Sciences Division
  (BER)
• Robert Vallario, Program Manager

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
6 IARP
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Working Groups or Breakouts

• Decision Support and the Frontiers of Integrating
  Systems Science
• The Grand Challenges of Impacts, Adaptations and
  Vulnerabilities
• Research Needs for Mitigation
• Scales Regional and Next-Generation Sectoral
  Modeling at Finer Time Scales

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
7 IARP
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Working Groups or Breakouts (Contd.)

• Collaborations and Interoperable Frameworks for
  the New Science Challenges
• Understanding the Role of Transformational
  Science and Technology
• Critical Challenges for Integrated Assessment
  Data and Data Management
• New Frontiers in Risk, Uncertainty, Testing and
  Diagnostic Methods
• New Horizons in Integrated Assessment
  Foundational Research

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
8 IARP
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Workshop Participants
Don Anderson NASA Peter Backlund University
Corp. for Atmospheric Research Anjuli
Bamzai DOE Rona Birnmaum EPA Lawrence
Buja University Corp. for Atmospheric
Research Leon Clarke Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Roger Dahlman DOE William Drew
Collins Lawrence Berkeley Natl. Lab Roger
Cook Resources for the Future Kristie Ebi ESS,
LLC James Edmonds Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Brian Flannery ExxonMobil Wanda
Ferrell DOE Ian Foster Argonne Natl.
Lab Charlette Geffen Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Anne Grambsche EPA Henry Jacoby Massachuset
ts Institute of Technology
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
9 IARP
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Workshop Participants (Contd.)
Anthony Janetos Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Kenneth Judd Stanford University Jack
Kaye NASA Michael Kuperberg DOE Chet
Koblinsky NOAA Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest
Natl. Lab Liz Moyer University of
Chicago Richard Newell Duke University Dennis
Ojima The Heinz Center Brian ONeill University
Corp. for Atmospheric Research Anna
Palmisano DOE Graham Pugh DOE Walter
Robinson NSF Alan Sanstad Lawrence Berkeley
Natl. Lab Peter Schultz US Global Change
Research Program Pam Stephens NSF
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
10 IARP
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Workshop Participants (Contd.)
Rick Stevens Argonne Natl. Lab David
Thomassen DOE Robert Vallario DOE Mort
Webster Massachusetts Institute of
Technology John Weyant Stanford University Tom
Wilbanks Oak Ridge Natl. Lab
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
11 IARP
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Workshop Context

• At the most general level, the field of
  Integrated Assessment is focused on
• Understanding and modeling the complex
  interactions of human and natural systems
• Exploring developmental pathways, emissions, the
  role of energy innovations, and mitigation
  strategies
• Providing insights into climate change impacts,
  adaptations, and the effects of combined,
  multiple stressors
• Developing global, national, and regional
  perspectives within economic, risk and other
  policy-relevant frameworks

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
12 IARP
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Workshop Context (contd.)
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
13 IARP
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Working Group 1 Mitigation, Transformational
Science and Technology, and Complex Interactions

• Linkages and dynamics of combined mitigation and
  adaptation
• Natural resources and other issues at larger
  scales (e.g., the energy-water-land interface)
• Understanding and modeling of the translational
  of scientific discovery into technology and
  systems innovation
• Use of IAMs to develop insights into interactions
  among different components of the human-climate
  system

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
14 IARP
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Working Group 1 Mitigation, Transformational
Science and Technology, and Complex Interactions
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
15 IARP
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Working Group 2 Impacts, Adaptations, and
Vulnerabilities

• Incorporation of separately developed impact
  domain models
• Incorporation of IAV knowledge that is not fully
  represented in IAV models
• Alternative metrics
• Improved understanding of multiple interacting
  stresses
• Regional and local heterogeneity and data
• Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
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Working Group 3 Spatial and Temporal Resolution

• Process scaling and nonlinearities
• Interfaces among physical, economic, and IAV
  model components
• Data matching (to scales)
• Scale and model uncertainties

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
17 IARP
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Working Group 3 Spatial and Temporal Resolution
Global With Coarse Resolution
IAMs
ESMs
New Generation Global with Fine Resolution
Impacts, Adaptation Vulnerability Models And
Studies
Regional Climate Models
Regional IAMs?
Highly-resolved Regional Models
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
18 IARP
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Working Group 4 Risk, Uncertainty, and
Diagnostic Methods

• Modeling of risk and quantification of different
  kinds of uncertainty relating to data,
  parameters, and model structure
• Interpretation of and communication of risk and
  uncertainty
• Propagation of uncertainty across model
  components
• Validation confronting models with data and
  observations
• Model intercomparisons

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
19 IARP
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Working Group 4 Risk, Uncertainty, and
Diagnostic Methods
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
20 IARP
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Working Group 5 Interoperable and Accessible
Modeling Frameworks

• Interoperable input and output detail, time
  steps, and scales
• Interdisciplinary modeling environments
• Agile modeling frameworks for approaching
  questions of different user communities
• Community modeling approaches
• Multiple models for scientific learning
• Enabling computation and networks
  (high-performance computing)

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
21 IARP
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Working Group 5 Interoperable and Accessible
Modeling Frameworks
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
22 IARP
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Working Group 6 Data Development and
Accessibility

• Observations harmonizing regional data, dealing
  with sparse data sets, and incorporating and
  querying very large datasets
• Data quality and verification
• Data management, distribution, and access
• Supporting cyber-infrastructure

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
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Outcomes

• Workshop report completed in June 2009
• Posted at http//www.sc.doe.gov/ober/BER_workshop
  s.html
• Printed copies and CDs available
• Distribution to participants
• Planned distribution within the USGCRP
• Other, select opportunities for communication as
  appropriate
• Using results for program planning

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
24 IARP