Development of Common Assumptions Common Model Package for the CALFED Surface Storage Investigations

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Development of Common Assumptions Common Model
Package for the CALFED Surface Storage
Investigations
Presentation ToCalifornia Water and
Environmental Modeling ForumbyBrian Van Lienden
and Robert Leaf, CH2M HILLFebruary 26, 2007
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Presentation Outline

• Common Assumptions Background and Accomplishments
• Overview of Common Model Package Development
• Common Model Package Review Process
• The Future of Common Assumptions

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Common Assumptions Background

• CALFED
• To develop a long-term comprehensive plan that
  will restore ecological health and improve water
  management for beneficial uses of the Bay-Delta
  system
• 2000 CALFED ROD
• Surface Storage Investigations (component of
  CALFED)
• Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation (SLWRI)
• North-of-the-Delta Off-stream Storage
  Investigation (NODOS)
• In-Delta Storage Investigation (IDS)
• Los Vaqueros Enlargement Investigation (LVE)
• Upper San Joaquin River Basin Storage
  Investigation (USJRBSI)

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Common Assumptions Background

• Common assumptions was originally developed to
  help the surface storage projects perform
  feasibility studies with these purposes in mind
• Comply with CEQA, NEPA, PGs, CWA/404,ESA, etc.
• Complete necessary studies and reports
• Common Assumptions Objectives
• Provide a framework for a defensible basis for
  collaborative decision making regarding surface
  storage investigations
• Improve consistency in application of overarching
  policy decisions
• Identify common water facilities, operations,
  management, and regulations
• Develop and refine a common analytical framework
  including tools and methods for integrated
  hydrologic and economic analyses
• Support application of common policy and
  analytical framework and ensure quality control

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Common Assumptions Accomplishments

• Facilitated Policy Decisions
• Established important dates and timelines
• Identified likely future projects/programs in
  2030
• Developed Analytical Framework
• Common Model Package
• Application protocols
• Economic analysis methods and protocols
• Characterized and Quantified Water Management
  Actions
• Urban water use conservation
• Agricultural water use efficiency
• Recycling and desalination
• Groundwater storage for conjunctive management
• Water transfers

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Common Model Package (CMP) Description

• Consists of a set of analytical tools that can be
  operated in an integrated manner to perform
  hydrologic and economic analyses
• Provides for consistency in application of policy
  decisions and assumptions about facilities,
  operations, management, and regulations
• Supports application and accessibility of
  analytical tools and enhances quality control
• Provides a basis for the common reporting of
  results between different projects

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CMP Goals

• All Surface Storage Investigations to use both
  existing (CEQA) and future (NEPA) conditions for
  Feasibility Studies
• Provide cumulative, incremental, and sensitivity
  analysis capabilities for all surface storage
  projects
• Incorporate other characterization and
  quantification of other CALFED Water Management
  actions in analyses

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CMP Development History

• CMP development began in June 2004 using the OCAP
  model suite
• CMP Version 6 core CALSIM II component released
  June 6, 2006 has been in limited use (research
  and investigatory analyses)
• Latest CMP Version 8 in use by more than six
  investigations (surface storage, OCAP, and
  others), and use is expanding

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Conceptual Structure of the CMP
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Component models included in current CMP

• Water resource system (CALSIM II)
• Economics (LCPSIM, CVPM)
• Delta flow and salinity (DSM2)
• Temperature and salmon
• Sacramento River (Keswick to Red
  Bluff)(SRWQM_RBDD, SalMod)
• Trinity, Feather and American Rivers(Reclamation
  mortality model)
• Power generation and use
• CVP (LTGen)
• SWP (SWP_Power)

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CMP Integrated Solution Process
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CMP Accomplishments

• Period of Record and Level of Development
• 82-year simulation period of record (19222003)
• 2030 level of development (Sacramento Valley at
  2020 level of development)
• 2004 level of development nearly complete
  (LCPSIMinputs pending)
• Delta
• Delta flow-salinity relationships updated
  artificial neural networks (ANNs)
• DSM2 82-year simulation capability (was 16-year)
• Martinez boundary condition redeveloped adjusted
  astronomical tide normalized for historic sea
  level rise (normalized to November 1993)

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CMP Accomplishments

• New Subsystems
• Incorporated new San Joaquin River module (with
  2004 and 2030 levels of development)
• Colusa Basin network and hydrology redeveloped
  (using 2004 and 2020 levels of development)
• Delta Export Operations
• Refined south-of-Delta SWP operations (variable
  delivery patterns)
• Development and implementation of water transfers
  operations (integrated CALSIM IILCPSIM analysis)
• Incorporation of logic consistent with latest EWA
  model development (QC review pending)

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CMP Accomplishments

• Economics
• Implementation of LCPSIM Review Team (Common
  Assumptions Economics Workgroup) recommendations
• Implementation of Economics Workgroup CVPM
  recommendations
• Integration
• CALSIM II/LCPSIM integrated solution capability
  (interface and protocol)
• Enhanced one-directional linkage CALSIM II to
  CVPM
• Established protocols and clarified/corrected
  linkages for all models

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CMP Accomplishments

• Surface Storage
• Incorporated storage project components NODOS,
  SLWRI, LVE Future No Project LVE w/project
  pending
• Other
• Comprehensive documentation and review of all
  surface water rights, contracts, and other water
  delivery specifications
• Restructuring of CALSIM II to allow for more
  flexible and efficient analysis
• Extensive quality control effort resulting in
  hundreds of corrections and clarifications

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CMP Review Process

• December 6 internal memo requested joint
  Reclamation and DWR review of CMP Version 8
• Common Assumptions team is supporting agencies in
  the review process
• Review is an essential part of the quality
  control process
• Agencies acceptance at end of review process
  will result in CMP Version 9
• Use of CMP does not need to wait for conclusion
  of the review process Version 8 is already
  being used

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Schedule for CMP Review Workshops

• Jan. 8 Introduce CMP and kick off Review
  Workshops (for study managers and teams)
• Jan. 18 Analytical framework, Delta
  requirements and operations, new subsystems (for
  technical teams)
• Feb. 15 Economics Workgroup activities (for
  study managers and teams)
• Feb. 22 Model integration, water transfers and
  related model improvements (for technical teams)
• Mar. 8 Surface storage projects, EWA logic,
  temperature, salmon, power (for technical teams)
• Mar 22 TBD
• Note Additional workshops will be scheduled as
  needed.

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CMP Next Steps

• The latest CMP Version 8 is in use
• Review and acceptance process is underway
• A large amount of information is available, but
  documentation still under development
• The next CMP update, Version 9, should be
  available in spring 2007
• Upon completion, the desire is for Version 9 of
  the CMP to become the new benchmark

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The Future of Common Assumptions

• The goal is to wrap up CMP Version 9 and all
  supporting documentation by the end of the Spring
• At that point, the emphasis will shift to the
  surface storage project teams as they use the CMP
  for their feasibility analyses
• The Common Assumptions Team will continue to help
  by
• Supporting the project teams as they apply the
  CMP
• Performing cumulative and incremental analyses