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Transport and Sustainability

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Title: Sustainable Mobility in the World of 2030: How Can It Be Achieved? Author: geads Last modified by: Thomas Smith Created Date: 10/26/2005 2:42:19 PM – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Transport and Sustainability


1
Transport and Sustainability
  • Seminar by Dr. George C. Eads
  • Vice President, CRA International
  • Canberra, Australia
  • December 9, 2005

2
Presentation outline
  • The World Business Council for Sustainable
    Development and the Sustainable Mobility Project
  • The SMPs definition of sustainable mobility
  • Seven goals identified by the SMP for improving
    the sustainability of mobility
  • Goal-by-goal review
  • SMPs bottom line conclusion about whether
    mobility can be made sustainable

3
The World Business Council for Sustainable
Development (WBCSD)
  • A coalition of 170 international companies united
    by a share commitment to sustainable development
    via the three pillars of economic growth,
    ecological balance, and social progress
  • WBCSD members are drawn from more than 35
    countries and 20 major industrial sectors
  • WBCSD issues reports that are the responsibility
    of the entire membership also provides the
    process, quality control, and outreach for
    member-led sector projects
  • The Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) was a
    member-led sector project I was its lead
    consultant, but report I will be summarizing was
    issued on the responsibility of the members

4
SMP members
5
The SMP Final Report Mobility 2030
  • Defines sustainable mobility and provides
    indicators for measuring it
  • Provides a frank assessment of outlook if present
    trends continue
  • Proposes seven goals for improving outlook
  • Provides metrics for measuring attainment of
    several of these goals

Using spreadsheet model developed jointly by
SMP and IEA
Report and supporting material (including
spreadsheet model and documentation)
available at www.sustainablemobility.org
6
SMPs definition of sustainable mobility
  • The ability to meet the needs of society to move
    freely, gain access, communicate, trade and
    establish relationships without sacrificing other
    essential human or ecological values today or in
    the future.

7
SMPs indicators of sustainable mobility
  1. Access to mobility
  2. Monetary cost to users
  3. Travel time
  4. Reliability and comfort
  5. Safety
  6. Security
  7. Greenhouse gas emissions
  8. Impact on environment and public well-being
  9. Resource use
  10. Impact on public revenues and expenditures
  11. Equity implications
  12. Prospective rate of return to private business

Mobility users
Society as a whole, as represented by governments
Mobility providers
  • Governments reflect at least three distinct
    societal perspectives
  • As internalizer of externalities (7, 8 and
    9)
  • As fiscal agent (10)
  • As promoter of equity (11)

8
SMPs seven goals for improving the
sustainability of mobility
  1. Reduce conventional emissions from transport to
    levels where they do not constitute a significant
    public health concern anywhere in the world
  2. Limit GHG emissions from transport to sustainable
    levels
  3. Reduce the number of transport-related deaths and
    injuries worldwide
  4. Reduce transport-related noise
  5. Mitigate traffic congestion
  6. Narrow mobility opportunity divides
  7. Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities
    available to the general population

9
Goal 1 Eliminate transport-related conventional
emissions as a significant public health concern
anywhere in the world
  • We believe that in the developed world this goal
    will be achieved by 2030. Indeed, it might be
    achieved as early as 2020.In the developing
    world, it should be possible to reduce
    transport-related conventional pollutants to well
    below the levels in our reference case. It is
    not realistic to expect the stated goal to be
    achieved throughout the developing world as soon
    as it is achieved in the developed world.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, pp. 20-21

10
Example Projected transport-related NOx
emissionsDeveloped world (left panel) and
developing world (right panel)
11
Impact of lags of different length in adoption of
standards by the non-OECD countries
Non-OECD regions Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions
by year depending on the time lag in implementing
developed world emissions standards
Time lag used in reference case
12
Building blocks for reducing transport-related
emissions
  • Advanced vehicle emissions control technologies
  • Unleaded gasoline and lower sulphur fuels
  • Four-stroke engines and advanced emissions
    controls for two and three wheelers
  • Technologies for monitoring in-use performance
    political will to use these technologies

13
Challenges to achieving goal
  • Affordability to consumers of advanced pollution
    control equipment, especially in developing world
  • Time lags
  • In the adoption of standards
  • In fleet turnover
  • Actual in-use performance
  • Resolving issues of vehicle and fuel
    interdependence
  • Political and cultural acceptance

14
Goal 2 Limit transport-related GHG emissions to
sustainable levels
  • We accept that societys long-term goal should
    be nothing less than to eliminate transportation
    as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
    Yet even under the most favorable circumstances,
    achieving this goal will take longer than the
    time frame of this report
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 21.

15
Share of worldwide GHG emissions associated with
transport activity
IEA total CO2 emissions, all sectors 22.6 Gt
IPCC total anthropogenic emissions (CO2 equivalent) c. 32 Gt
Vehicle (TTW) CO2 emissions (including international marine bunkers) 5.4 Gt
Total transport (WTW) CO2eq emissions (incl. bunkers) 6.3 Gt
Vehicle (TTW) share of IEA total CO2 emissions, all sectors 24
Total transport (WTW) share of IEA total CO2 emissions, all sectors 28
Total transport (WTW) share of IPCC total anthropogenic emissions c. 18 - 20
Source IEA WEO 2002 SMP calculations
Data for 2000
16
Reference case transport-related GHG emissions
Projection by region
17
Reference case transport-related GHG emissions
Projection by transport mode
18
Building blocks for reducing transport-related
GHG emissions
  • Transport-related GHG emissions ASIF
  • Activity (volume of passenger and freight
    travel)
  • Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors,
    and vehicle type)
  • Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle
    activity)
  • Fuel type (GHG characteristics of fuel used)

19
A times S Transport demandSMPs
projections of future personal and goods
transport demand
20
I times F Emissions per unit of transport
demandFuel and vehicle characteristics examined
by SMP
21
Challenge to achieving goal
  • Even if implemented worldwide, diesels and
    hybrid ICEs fueled with conventional gasoline and
    diesel fuel, or fuel cells fueled by natural
    gas-derived hydrogen, can no more than slow the
    growth in road transport CO2 emissions during the
    period 2000-2050. Only the use of carbon-neutral
    hydrogen in fuel cells and advanced biofuels in
    ICE-powered vehicles can largely or totally
    offset the growth in CO2 emissions produced by
    the growth in road travel during the period
    2000-2050.

22
Illustration of challenge
  • Project conducted two simulations
  • Impact on well-to-wheel GHG emissions from road
    vehicles of individual technologies at very high
    levels of market penetration
  • Possible combination of strategies that would
    return well-to-wheel road vehicle emissions to
    their 2000 levels by 2050
  • In both simulations, no account was taken of cost
    or customer acceptance

23
What are well to wheel emissions?
  • GHG emissions are produced both during the
    production and distribution of transport fuel
    (well to tank emissions) and during the
    combustion of the fuel (tank to wheels
    emissions)
  • Total transport-related emissions are the sum of
    the two (well to wheels emissions)
  • It is this sum that must be reduced
  • Next chart shows the importance of using well
    to wheels measure of emissions

24
ICEs (SI and CI)
Hybrids
Fuel Cells
25
Simulation 1 Impact of individual technologies
  • Assumptions
  • Diesel ICE technology (using conventional diesel
    fuel) assumed to have 18 fuel consumption
    benefit versus prevailing gasoline ICE
    technology during entire period
  • Gasoline hybrids assumed to have 30 advantage
    versus the prevailing gasoline ICE technology
    diesel hybrids, a 36 advantage fuel cell
    vehicles, a 45 advantage
  • Diesels and advanced hybrids reach 100 sales
    penetration (worldwide) by 2030 in light-duty
    vehicles and medium-duty trucks
  • Fuel cells reach 100 sales penetration
    (worldwide) by 2050 hydrogen produced by
    reforming natural gas, no carbon sequestration
  • For carbon neutral hydrogen, change WTT
    emissions characteristics of the hydrogen used in
    fuel cell case above
  • For biofuels, assume would be used in a world
    road vehicle fleet similar in energy use
    characteristics to the SMP reference fleet

Actual fleet-average in-use emissions not
theoretically possible emissions
26
Results of simulation 1(Caution results for
individual technologies cannot be added together)
27
Simulation 2 --- Combined technology strategy
  • Applied five technology increments in order
    shown (are additive, but order matters)
  • Dieselisation. For light-duty vehicles and
    medium-duty trucks, rises to around 45 globally
    by 2030.
  • Hybridisation. For light-duty vehicles and
    medium-duty trucks increases to half of all ICE
    vehicles sold by 2030.
  • Conventional and advanced biofuels. The quantity
    of biofuels in the total worldwide gasoline and
    diesel pool rises steadily, reaching one-third by
    2050.
  • Fuel cells using hydrogen derived from fossil
    fuels (no carbon sequestration). Mass market
    sales of light-duty vehicles and medium-duty
    trucks start in 2020 and rise to half of all
    vehicle sales by 2050.
  • Carbon neutral hydrogen used in fuel cells.
    Hydrogen sourcing for fuel cells switches to
    centralized production of carbon-neutral hydrogen
    over the period 2030-2050 once hydrogen LDV
    fleets reach significant penetration at a country
    level. By 2050, 80 of hydrogen is produced by
    carbon-neutral processes.
  • Assumptions of effectiveness of technologies
    identical to those used in Simulation 1

28
Results of Simulation 2
Impact of increments 1 through 5
29
The five technology/fuel increments do not
achieve goal of returning road vehicle well to
wheels GHG emissions to their 2000 level by 2050
  • Two additional increments required
  • Additional fleet-level vehicle energy efficiency
    improvement. SMP reference case projects an
    average improvement in the energy efficiency of
    the on-road light-duty vehicle fleet of about
    0.4 per year. We assume that the average annual
    in-use fleet-level improvement rises by an
    additional10 (i.e., from about 0.4 to about
    0.6).
  • A 10 reduction in emissions due to better
    traffic flow and other efficiency improvements in
    road vehicle use.

Perhaps due to downsizing or other forms of
mix shifting
30
Reducing transport-related GHG emissions -- the
way forward
  • Important progress can be made during the next
    two or three decades. Prior to 2030, where
    economically practical and politically
    acceptable, SMP members believe that the
    following actions aimed at bending the
    transport-related GHG emissions curve downward
    should be undertaken
  • The energy efficiency of transport vehicles
    should be improved consistent with customer
    acceptance and cost-effectiveness.
  • The technological foundation should be laid for
    the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil
    carbon in transport fuel....
  • Where new fuel infrastructures are required to
    permit the eventual elimination of the effects of
    fossil carbon in transport fuel, planning should
    be undertaken and, if practical, construction
    should begin.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 21

31
Goal 3 Reduce Road-Related Deaths and Injuries
  • All countries should pursue aggressive
    strategies to reduce the number of
    transport-related deaths and injuries,
    especially deaths and injuries related to road
    vehicles.Programs to reduce deaths and serious
    injuries should address the full range of factors
    contributing to vehicle-related deaths and
    serious injuries, including driver behavior,
    improvements in infrastructure, and the
    development and deployment of improved
    technologies for crash avoidance and injury
    mitigation.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 22.
  • relative to our reference case projections

32
Reference case projections of road-related deaths
Reference Case 1
Reference Case 2
Source Analysis by Koornstra conducted for SMP
33
There are sharp regional differences in who is
being killed today in road crashes
34
Goal 4 Reduce transport-related noise
  • While different localities can place quite
    different priorities on the importance of dealing
    with transport-related noise a common set of
    elements from which communities might develop a
    noise-reduction strategyincludes using road
    surfaces that significantly dampen noise,
    constructing noise barriers in noise-sensitive
    areas enacting and enforcing regulations
    restricting the modification of vehicles in ways
    that create greater noise and/or allow such
    vehicles to be operated in a manner that produces
    unnecessary noise and continuing to improve the
    noise performance of transport vehicles.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.

35
Goal 5 Mitigate congestion
  • Transportation congestion cannot be completely
    eliminated without destroying transports vital
    role in enabling economic growth. But its
    effects can be substantially mitigated
  • Infrastructure capacity can be expanded to
    accommodate demand-led growth.But in the SMPs
    view, building additional transport capacity
    should never be the only (or even the principal)
    approach to mitigating congestion. (emphasis
    added)
  • Infrastructure planning can be focused
    increasingly on the elimination of choke points
    that prevent critical elements of transport
    infrastructure from being used efficiently.
  • Where practical and politically acceptable,
    transport demand growth can be absorbed by making
    better use of existing mobility systems and
    infrastructure. Pricing strategies of various
    types are being used in an increasing number of
    places, although their use remains
    controversial.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.

36
Goal 6 Narrow the most serious mobility
opportunity divides
  • Many of the worlds peoples are hampered in
    their efforts to better their lives by poor
    mobility opportunities. In some of the poorest
    countries and regions, mobility opportunities are
    a small fraction of what they are in the rest of
    the world.
  • And in most countries, there are large
    differences in the mobility opportunities enjoyed
    by the average citizen and members of certain
    groups the poorest, the handicapped and
    disabled, the elderly, etc.
  • These mobility opportunity divides must be
    narrowed if mobility is to become sustainable.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.

37
One indicator of the size of the gap in mobility
opportunities between wealthier and poorer regions
38
Two approaches to reducing mobility opportunity
divides between more developed and less developed
regions
  • Improve road infrastructure so people everywhere
    have access to all-weather roads
  • Provide inexpensive, safe, clean mobility systems
  • Concern about possible increases in GHG
    emissions should not be used as a reason to block
    such improvements countries in the worlds more
    developed regions must make room for mobility
    improvements in the worlds less developed
    regions

39
Increase mobility opportunities available to
certaindisadvantaged groups in all countries --
even mobility rich countries
  • Mobility opportunities available to certain
    groups in almost every country are limited
  • The elderly
  • The disabled
  • The economically disadvantaged
  • Certain disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups
  • Deficit in mobility opportunities available to
    these groups contributes to their social and
    economic exclusion

40
Two approaches to reducing mobility opportunity
divides within all countries even mobility
rich countries
  • Where feasible, tailor conventional public
    transport services to meet the needs of these
    mobility-disadvantaged groups
  • Increase use of alternatives to conventional
    public transport such as paratransit utilize ITS
    technologies to improve the service
    characteristics and reduce the costs of these
    alternative systems

41
Goal 7 Preserve and improve the mobility
opportunities available to the general population
  • The mobility opportunities available today to
    the general population of most developed-world
    countries (and in many developing-world
    countries) greatly exceed those of any period in
    the past. However, the changes in urban living
    pattern that Mobility 2030 notes as adversely
    impacting the mobility opportunities of the
    poorest, the elderly, the handicapped and
    disabled, and the disadvantaged also threaten to
    erode the mobility opportunities of many average
    citizens.
  • In particular, the ability of conventional
    public transport systems to perform their vital
    role in personal mobility is being threatened.
  • During the next several decades, a primary goal
    should be to preserve these mobility options. At
    the same time, new mobility systems that could be
    sustainable in a future urbanized/suburbanized
    world need to be developed and their
    implementation begun.
  • Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 25.

42
Even where public transport is of very high
quality, itoften cannot come close to meeting
everyones total personal mobility needs
Personal transport modal usage in Paris (Central
Paris and first ring)
Percent of respondents
  • Arrondissements I XX
  • Departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine Saint
    Denis, and Val de Marne
  • Source Renault

43
Challenge becomes even greater once one moves
outside the urban core and trips to and from
that core
Daily Trips by Mode in the Paris Region

Ile de France region outside Central Paris and
First Ring
44
13.2 of daily trips
5.9 of daily trips
14.3 of daily trips
Total 33.4 of daily trips
45
Illustration Paris region as a whole
Total 66.6 of daily trips
8.8 of daily trips
22.8 of daily trips
35.0 of daily trips
46
While conventional public transport systems will
continue to play a vital role in monocentric
urban areas, societies should develop new
mobility systems
  • These systems should combine flexibility provided
    by private vehicle with cost and efficiency
    characteristics of public transport
  • Goal should be to fit characteristics of mobility
    systems to the needs and desires of people rather
    than the reverse
  • Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems
  • Advanced paratransit
  • Shared-use vehicle services (car sharing)
  • Possibly in the future, fully automated systems

47
Mobility 2030s bottom line conclusion
  • Mobility can be made sustainable, but . . .
  • There is no single magic technological
    solution a portfolio of solutions is required
  • Some goals can be achieved by 2030, especially in
    the Worlds more developed regions, but others
    will take longer
  • Achieving sustainable mobility will require
    coordinated efforts, starting now, by all
    elements of society business, government,
    public
  • Sustainable mobility cannot be achieved without
    the active involvement of the developing world

48
Thank you for your attention
49
Global dialogue
Tokyo
Nagoya
50
Assurance group
  • Advice on quality and integrity of substance and
    process
  • Members
  • Rt Hon Simon Upton (Chair) New Zealand
  • Mr. David Ashley Australia
  • Professor John Heywood USA
  • Professor Peter Jones Great Britain
  • Professor Suzana Kahn Ribiero Brazil
  • Profesor Martin Wachs USA
  • Professor Akio Morishima Japan

51
LDV Assumptions (backup)
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