A NEW APPROACH TO ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES

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A NEW APPROACH TO ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES
IGEC-2 INTERNATIONAL GREEN ENERGY CONFERENCE
YILDIZ TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY

• Prepared by Zehra Yumurtaci
• Nur Bekiroglu
• Sevgihan Yildiz

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Especially after the energy crisis, energy issues
have become daily life problems and intensive
researches are started on alternative energy
sources. Today some serious development is
achieved.
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Unit Energy Cost And Investment Costs Of
Alternative Energy Sources
gt
Unit Energy Cost And Investment Costs Of
Conventional Fossil Fuels
All the studies conducted today are on reducing
the costs of alternative energy generation. While
these studies are going on, fossil fuel plants
are still working and changing the ecological
balance of earth. The values that change the
balance is
CO2,
CO,
NOX,
SOX,
acid rains
and green-house effect.
Many storms and various losses occur because of
the effect of these storms.
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Air Pollution
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In the last years, along with the increase of
industrial activity, urbanization and the
increase of population, both the usage and the
amount of pollutants increase.
Pollutants are in gas, liquid and solid phases.
Pollutants from various sources mix into the
atmosphere in dust, vapour, ash, smoke, fog etc
forms.

Pollutants are two types one directly released
to the atmosphere and one type that react with
atmospheric compounds and become pollutants.
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Pollutants that are emitted directly from
pollutant sources are sulphurdioxide, nitrogen
oxides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and solid
particles that remain suspended in air.
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Human-made pollution sources are mainly
transportation, solid fuels, electric generation
plants, fuels used for industry and heating, and
industrial processes.
Pollutants and the medium they are in has the
same importance regarding pollution. When a
pollution study is to be conducted in an area,
the meteorological conditions and the chemical
structure of the air should be analyzed.
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Harmful effects of air pollution
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Air pollution has negative effects on human
health, materials, visibility range, plants and
animal health.

• The effects of air pollution on human health
  occur due to inhalations of high pollutant
  content in the atmosphere. The air to breathe
  should be clean in order to have a healthy and
  comfortable life.

• Pollution effects plants and terminates them or
  stops their growth.

• Air pollution also has a damaging effect on
  artistic and architectural structures.

Therefore, air pollution is harmful regarding
both the health of living creatures and
economical issues.
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Green House Effect
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Green house gases have an indispensable place in
climate systems. Short wave radiation passes
through the atmosphere and reach earth surface.
Earth absorbers the sun radiation and emits long
wave earth radiation. A part of this long wave
radiation is absorbed by the green house gases in
the atmosphere and then emitted.
These gases are mainly water vapour, carbon
dioxide, methane, dinitrogen monoxide and
aerosols. It is calculated that without the
natural green house gases, earth would be 30 C
cooler compared to today.
On the other hand, various human sourced
increases of these gases cause a significant
increase in earths temperature.
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Acid rains
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The main reasons of acid rains are sulphur and
nitrogen oxides. Volcanoes, planktons, decayed
plants and such natural sources emit
sulphurdioxide.
Also, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil
has released more than half these gases. As
Sulphurdioxide ascends in the atmosphere, it
forms sulfate ions.
Afterwards, bonds with hydrogen and forms
sulphuric acid. Oxidation generally takes place
is the clouds with the effect of ammonia and the
catalytic effect of ozone. But all of the
sulphurdioxide does not transform into sulphuric
acid, a major part remains in the atmosphere.
Nitrooxides are also important elements of acid
rains.
The main sources of these pollutants are exhaust
gases and power plants. Like sulphurdioxide,
nitro-oxides ascend in the atmosphere and form
nitric acid. That reaction occurs in highly
polluted clouds where iron, manganese, ammonia
and hydrogen peroxide exist.
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Pollution Due To Energy Production
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The man-made emissions are approximately
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The natural emissions of CO2 are approximately

• 200 Gigatons carbon per year.

The same amount is taken out of the atmosphere
every year.

• 8 Gigatons CO2/year,

• 2 Gigatons from deforestation and

• 6 from the use of fossil fuels.

While this amount seems low it is the only part
which is not offset by carbon removal, and it is
growing rapidly as the world economy expends.
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1,8 Gton CO2/year are due to electricity
generation from combustion of fossil fuels
4,2 Gton CO2/year are caused by use of fossil
fuels in transportation, industry and private
homes.
Three strategies are available to reduce the
amount of CO2

• Prevention avoid formation of CO2 by higher
  efficiencies in electricity generation,
  transmission and use,

• Recycling of CO2 by capture, utilization and
  disposal/storage

• Use of renewable sources of energy like hydro,
  solar, wind, biomass, etc., and use of nuclear
  power.

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The potential to prevent an increase from todays
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1,8 Gton CO2/ year
in 2010 is
1,5 Gton CO2/year
if best available technologies will be utilized
in power industry.The potential to recycle CO2
is much higher, but its utilization hinges on
costs of fossil fuel generated electricity, which
would increase by 50 100 .
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This figure shows the evolution of CO2 emissions
caused by the combustion of fossil fuels coal,
oil and gas. It can be fairly safely predicted
that more electricity needs to be generated as
the needs in less developed countries are growing
rapidly.
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Only nuclear power and hydro power do not
generate CO2, although there are other
environmental concerns that have to be considered
for these technologies.
Fossil fuels are often the only available
resource in many countries, and the choice of
fuel very often depends on the availability and
economics of exploitation and transportation.
CO2 can be reduced by fuel switching a
pulverized coal-fired power plant produces 0,83kg
CO2 per kWh of electricity generated, whereas
this number drops to 0,41 in a natural gas fired
combined cycle plant.
In this paper we will argue that much more can be
done now by using best available technologies,
and more by using Technologies in the future to
prevent the formation of CO2, by more efficient
utilization of fossil fuels, be it in the
combustion process itself, or be it in the
transmission and-use of electric energy.
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The damage caused by the emissions of the fossil
fuels (according to EU calculations) is shown in
table at below. Largest damage is caused by SO2,
NOX and PM10. However it is possible to eliminate
these gases by installing a desulphurization
system next to a thermal power plant. Since CO2
is difficult to eliminate, the actual threat CO2.
Emission Type Damage Costs (/t)
SO2 13900
NOX 20100
PM10 18900
CO2 (climate change) 1,76-17,6-84
CO2 (geological storage) 0,38-38-380
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The countries that produce the largest amount of
CO2 are given in Table at below. It can be seen
that 65 of total CO2 emission of the world is
from these five countries. The rest of the
countries have a role of 27, 25 of the total
CO2 production takes place in the USA.
CO2 emission values of the countries
Countries Total CO2 emissions (Mt)
United States 5229
European Union 3180
China 3007
Russia 1548
Japan 1151
Other Countries 7958
Total 22073
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City Total (O3 PM10 NO2 SO2 CO) Damage Total (O3 PM10 NO2 SO2 CO) Damage Total (O3 PM10 NO2 SO2 CO) Damage
City (t) (gm-2) ( x 1000)
Atlanta,GA 1200 10,7 6470
Austin, TX 2770 12,6 14500
Dallas, TX 2600 10,5 14200
Houston, TX 2340 13,4 11900
Indianapolis, IN 2910 10,3 15500
Jacksonville, FL 11100 10,7 60800
Kansas City, MO 2620 9,2 13900
Los Angeles, CA 4210 23,1 23300
Nashville, TN 5870 9,1 31000
Oklahoma City, OK 2120 10,4 11900
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA 3280 11,5 18300
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When the emission values are analyzed, the
highest pollution is in Jacksonville with total
11100 tones and 10,7 grams per meter square.
The damage caused by that is 60,8 million, this
table shows emission values of some cities in the
USA. The seriousness of the situation can be
realized by looking at the values.
As the emission values increase, some natural
disasters, mainly hurricanes, occur and large
scale damages are received.
In this figure, the increase of hurricanes within
years can be observed.
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The increase of the hurricane damages with years
In this study, only the hurricanes of 2005 and
their physical damages are taken into
consideration.
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We all know that sentimental damages are
impossible to compensate. These damages can be
reduced by minimizing emission values.
In next table, all the hurricanes that took place
in the USA in 2005 are given.
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Total damage costs of all the hurricanes that
took place in 2005 is approximately 100 billion
.
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If this amount were invested in renewable
resources, the potential power amount can be
calculated using the data in table at below.
(Anthony D, Owen, 2006) (Yumurtaci Z, and et al.,
2005)
Cost of traditional and renewable energy
technologies current and expected trends
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The potential power amount that could be obtained
if damage costs according to these values were
used as renewable resource plant installation,
are calculated, Results of the calculations are
given in next table.
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Power values that can be obtained using fossil
fuels and renewable resource plants
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According to these results, if the costs of
damages created by the hurricanes in 2005 were
spent for energy production, approximately
100,000 MW hydro electrical plants can be
installed.
Also the unit price of electricity is lower.
Furthermore, not so much CO2 would be released to
the atmosphere and the CO2 balance would be
maintained.
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CONCLUSIONS
Today all the studies conducted worldwide aim to
decrease CO2 level.
Kyoto protocol signed by some countries forces
the nations to decrease greenhouse gases which
are harmful by applying penalties. Countries
signed Kyoto Protocol undertake the
responsibility of keeping the released the gases
namely emissions in a certain level.
The goal is to decrease the emissions of the
developed countries by 5,2 from the level in
1990 until 2012.
A new system has been developed to achieve this
goal which is named as carbon price. This is
the price for releasing 1 ton carbon to
atmosphere and its value is about 7 Euro/ton
carbons.
These carbon accounts are being implemented newly
to the enterprises and it is estimated that if to
high cottas are given to the enterprises this
price would go to zero in theory.
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However, according to optimistic expectations
this price would go to as high as 20 Euros if the
system is properly implemented. Thus, decreasing
the emission level in 1990 by 5,2 until 2012
goal would be achieved. In December 2005, EU
ministers decided that a reduction of 25-50 will
be necessary. (www,bbc,co,uk,2005)
Global consumption of fossil energy (oil, natural
gas, coal) is predicted to increase by 33-45
from 1990-2010. Global anthropogenic CO2
emissions are predicted or are by 34-46 from
1990-2010 if the present trends are extrapolated.
(Dogobert G, Kesel, 2000)
Ecological balance is degraded with increasing
CO2 emissions and thus, disasters increase
especially, hurricanes in USA have increased
dramatically.
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In this study, capacities of the power plants
which would be erected with the annual monetary
losses of the hurricanes have been determined.
In this calculation, highest capacity is supplied
by hydro electrical power plants that are about
100000 MW. Unit cost for hydro power is about 6,2
cent/kWh.
Power that would be delivered by wind power
systems is nearly 66000 MW. Unit energy cost is
7,4 cent/kWh on average and it is expected to
decrease within time.
Power that would be delivered by Wave, Tide,
Biomass and Biogas energy systems is around 62500
MW. But these power plants have higher unit
electricity cost than the formers.
Geothermal plants are the next options and they
have a potential about 60000 MW. The lowest power
is delivered by solar power which is around 20000
MW. However, solar plants have very high unit
electricity costs.
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When these options are compared in all aspects,
hydro power is the most appropriate one. Because,
it has lower unit initial installation and unit
electricity costs.
Besides, it has proven itself as friendly to
environment. No emissions would be released to
nature if these hydro power plants were installed
and electricity was going to be delivered by a
clean source of energy.
Consequently, we would have a cleaner, healthier
and more reliable world.
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THANK YOU
Prepared by Zehra Yumurtaci zyumur_at_yildiz.edu.
tr Nur Bekiroglu nbekir_at_yildiz.edu.tr
Sevgihan Yildiz sevgihan_at_yildiz.edu.tr
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