The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices ( - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 16
About This Presentation
Title:

The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices (

Description:

Title: NSF Opportunities Last modified by: Detlof von Winterfeldt Created Date: 2/26/2003 4:16:39 PM Document presentation format: On-screen Show Other titles – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:173
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 17
Provided by: archivesT5
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices (


1
The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices
(Dirty Bombs)Detlof von WinterfeldtUniversity
of Southern CaliforniaPresentation at the
ConferenceThe Future of Terrorism
InsuranceUniversity of Southern CaliforniaJune
20, 2005
2
Why Study Dirty Bomb Risks?
  • Thousands of radioactive materials in the U.S.
    and abroad
  • Many lost sources
  • Relatively easy to buy or steal
  • Potential for massive psychological and economic
    effects

3
Risk Analysis
  • Develop attack scenarios Sources x delivery
    mechanism x location
  • Estimate relative probabilities Project risk
    analysis
  • Radiological source term and plume modeling
  • Consequence assessment

4
Example Sources
  • Medical, Research, Food Facilities
  • Blood irradiator (1-5,000 Curies)
  • Research irradiator
  • Industrial irradiator (50-250,000 Curies)
  • Nuclear Waste
  • LLW
  • HLW
  • Spent Fuel (1 million Curies per fuel assembly)
  • Special Nuclear Materials
  • Enriched Uranium
  • Plutonium

5
LA and Long Beach Ports
3rd busiest port in the world 36 of US
imports 11.4 million TEUs per year 212 billion
cargo value
6
Theft of an Industrial Irradiator
7
The Project Begins.
Plan
Prepare
Obtain explosives
Transport explosives
  • RAD Source
  • Bomb Target
  • Staffing
  • Funding
  • Communication

Build dirty bomb
Obtain RAD material
Transport RAD material
8
and is completed
Attack
Transport dirty bomb to target
Detonate dirty bomb
Build dirty bomb
Escape
9
Event Tree
10
Probability of Success
11
Figure 4.1 Hypothetical Plume due to a 10,000
Curie Release
12
(No Transcript)
13
Fatalities
  • Blast effect and acute radiation impacts a few
    fatalities
  • Four day dose from plume tens to hundreds of
    latent cancers
  • Ground shine tens to hundreds of latent cancers

14
Cost of Shutting Down the Ports
  • 15 days 138 million
  • 120 days 35 billion
  • 365 days 100 billion

15
Other Costs
  • Evacuation up to 100 million
  • Property Values up to 200 million
  • Business Loss up to 3 billion
  • Decontamination up to 100 billion

16
Conclusions
  • A dirty Bomb is nor a weapon of mass
    destruction..
  • Very few immediate fatalities
  • At worst hundreds of latent cancers
  • .but psychological and economic impacts can be
    massive
  • Shut down of facilities and businesses
  • Decontamination
  • . and the probability of a dirty bomb attack is
    unknown
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com