Combating terrorism: An Event Tree Approach Talk at the BTR 2003 Conference Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University March 21st 2003

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Combating terrorism An Event Tree Approach
Talk at the BTR 2003 Conference Richard
WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of
PhysicsHarvard University March 21st 2003
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First taskDefine the problem.Next task
break it into component partsfactorizable as
much as possibleThen follow Sequence of Events
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Step 1. The Creation of a TerroristStep 2. A
Terrorist Enters SocietyStp 3.Terrorist
Exploits VulnerabilityIt is usually easiest to
address the first step in a chain of events
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Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists,
as they were justly denominated, from the cruel
and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in
implicit subjugation by a merciless severity
(1795)   Several notables are believed to be
more or less implicated in the acts of the
Terrorists (1905)    Miss G...., daughter of a
Wexford terrorist, directed many of the tortures
which were so extensively practiced (1866) some
book of the religious terrorists which tended to
infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)
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Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists?
even though they were the legitimate government
of Germany, originally elected by the people?  
Were opponents of Hitler terrorists? Esp.
Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate
Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?
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Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they
killed Tutsis although they were the legitimate
government?    Were the Young Turks terrorists
when they victimized the Armenians in 1916? Or
were the Armenians terrorists because they were
not model citizens?Were (and are) the opponents
of British rule in Ireland terrorists?    Has
the situation changed since partition in 1922?
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Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism
against the people of Chechnya (who have as much
voting power as other residents of Russia) or
are the radical Chechens guilty of terrorism
against Russia? Or both?     Is the government
of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the
Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of
terrorists to be tamed?
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Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the
Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or
are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?
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Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or
fighting terrorists?Timothy McVeigh thought the
former    Was General Custer fighting a band
of Indian terrorists, or were the Indians
fighting an oppression worse than the French had
experienced in 1795?
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Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when
he opposed the government of Batista?  What
about those branded by Castro as terrorists to
whom the USA has given citizenship?    
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Is the government of Israel a terrorist
government because they follow " the cruel and
impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian)
people in implicit subjugation by a merciless
severity"? Or are the Palestinians all
terrorists because they belong to an organization
opposing the present government of Israel and its
policies and in its early days, aim to drive them
into the sea?  
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Probably both sides are now wrong.
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Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist
is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it
from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad
first (Elena Bonner, 1994)  "Single acts of
tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion
of the day but a series of oppressions, begun in
a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally
thro' every change of ministers, too plainly
prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing
us to slavery".
Gerry Adams?
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One man's terrorist is another man's freedom
fighter.Monachem Begin terrorist in 1945 PM
of Israel 1978, Nobel Peace Prize
winnerBourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first
President of Tunisia    A rebellion is a
Revolution that does not succeed (Victor
Weisskopf) May 1940,  I learned unarmed combat.
Was I becoming a terrorist or a freedom fighter?
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30 years ago a friend of mine became a
terrorist.Then he became a freedom
fighterWithin 6 months he was a statesmanNow he
works with the poor.He did not change. He
lives in Bangladesh
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Step 1Stop Terrorists being createdThus what
areThe root causes of Terrorism?Despair?
Basic Evil thinking?Address Grievances EVEN IF
YOU DESPISE THE TERRORIST
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Step 2.Keeping Terrorists at Arms
length   Resolve major trouble spotsbefore they
festerAny Domestic Dispute lasting 50 Years
must be addressedKashmirIsrael
PalestineIreland
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Whey do I suggest 50 years? Physicists think
million years After 50 years terrorism gets
exported.Think where we want to be in 100 years
Ignore who did what to whom and when
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Event Tree Analysis step 3Imagine what a
terrorist might do to society and make it hard
for him to do it Combating Terrorism and Reducing
Accidents are similar Address the Low
Probability High Conseqence Accident The
terrorist will. Technically easy but a myriad of
places to intervene A terrorist can switch targets
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I will fight the last war and make my
comments on the World Trade Center In 1991
Herbert Levine (founder of Asbestospray) said
that If a fire breaks out above the 50th floor
(where asbestos stopped) the building will fall
down.
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Pilots would now resist a hijackingBar cockpit
doorsHidden switch to take control of plane to
ground or automatic pilot(already suggested)
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Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA
report)Insulation not tested for durabilityFire
and initial impact destroyed all safety
mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been
foreseen!)Helicopter fire fighters?Protect
buildings by cables from towers or balloons?
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Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50
stories high.(expensive but possible e.g.
apply a heat source to steel in one location and
compare the temperature - time profile with
calculation)
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Night Clubs have accidentsNight Clubs are
terrorist targetsAddressing the first is a good
cure for the secondAlways look for emergency
exitsEvery club owner and every performer must
be aware of fire danger
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Designers of buildings and large facilities must
IN FUTURE always perform a risk analysis with
especial attention to possible eventswith high
consequence yet low probabilitySaboteurs and
terrorists will increase the probability
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Safer Energy facilities   Do not store a lot
of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one
place.  Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be
in remote areas.   (In 1848 London decided to
keep Petroleum products 30 miles from London
bridge in Canvey Island)Terrorism and Sabotage
already considered for nuclear power.
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Cities have been built on EstuariesHydroelectric
dams are upstream.A dam failure (low
probability) can have high consequence.If
Littleton dam on the Connecticut failed in time
of flood it would take out all dams downstream
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In 1944 Wing Commander Gibson destroyed a dam in
Germany with a 6000 pond bomb in unfavorable
circumstances. In 1975 Littleton dam was
unguarded and I could drive onto it to unload a
bomb
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Electricity Distribution Systems are easy to
sabotage. A major storm in France cut the
system at a few places, and caused major
havoc.In 1944 bored US officers shot at
insulators on transmission towers and shut off
power to the Dartmouth naval base.20 well
placed saboteurs with shot guns could do as much.
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Avoiding anthrax scare easyIrradiate all mail at
sorting offices (Co60 or Cs137)poisoning water
supplies? Emergency purification?Mobile water
purifiers are simple
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We must be prepared for a new disease whether
introduced by terrorist or natural causes
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Sabotage has always been easy- Disgruntled
Con.Ed. Worker blew up substations- Forest
worker set a major fire- Schoolboys synthesized
H2S to get an afternoon offHow much effort
should we make for reducing it?
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Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act
in concert Modern Society is Vulnerable   
Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of
life.  They will be with us until the end of
the human race. 
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Physicists (and economists)like a quantitative
approachto decide how much to spend.EPA says
6.1 million per calculated life.But terrorism
is more disturbing and society clearly wants to
pay more
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We must not let terrorism distort our lives.
Other risks are bigger.Car accidents
45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society
moreSecurity vs. Freedom Our human rights are
what makes life worth living.
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If you still want to belong to an
organization dedicated to killing Americans,
theres always the tobacco lobby. Alex
Gregory, Cartoonbank.com