Bob McKane, USEPA Western Ecology Division

1
A Multi-Model Ecosystem Simulator for Predicting
the Effects of Multiple Stressors on Great Plains
Ecosystems
Bob McKane, USEPA Western Ecology Division Marc
Stieglitz and Feifei Pan, Georgia Tech Adam
Skibbe, Kansas State University Kansas State
University September 25, 2008
2
A Collaborative Effort
ORD Corvallis Dr. Bob McKane Region 7 Brenda
Groskinsky and others
Dr. Marc Steiglitz Dr. Feifei Pan
Adam Skibbe Dr. John Blair Dr. Loretta
Johnson Many others
Dr. Ed Rastetter Bonnie Kwiatkowski
3
Agenda

• Seminar (45 minutes)
• Project overview McKane
• GIS database Skibbe
• Model description and results to date Stieglitz
  
• Open discussion of collaborative opportunities
  (45 minutes)
• Calibration analysis of spatial and temporal
  controls on
• Plant biomass NPP
• Soil C N dynamics
• Fuel load dynamics
• Hillslope hydrology biogeochemistry
• Stream water quality quantity
• Linkage of ecohydrology and air quality modeling
• Air quality models (BlueSkyRAINS, others?)
• Spatial domain for regional assessments
• Scenarios burning strategies, land use, climate
  
• Ecological and air quality endpoints
• Collaboration among KSU, EPA, GT researchers

4
Modeling Goals
Air Quality
Woody Encroachment
Rangeland Productivity
Water Quality Quantity
5
Modeling Approach
Environmental Effects
Interacting Stressors
6
Modeling Approach

• Terrestrial Effects
• Vegetation change
• Plant productivity
• Carbon storage
• Fuel loads (input for fire air quality models)

• Stressors
• Vegetation change
• Climate change
• Management
• Fire
• Grazing
• Pesticides
• Fertilizers

• Aquatic Effects
• Water quality quantity

7
Modeling Approach

• Terrestrial Effects
• Vegetation change
• Plant productivity
• Carbon storage
• Fuel loads (input for fire air quality models)

• Stressors
• Vegetation change
• Climate change
• Management
• Fire
• Grazing
• Pesticides
• Fertilizers

• Aquatic Effects
• Water quality quantity

8
Fire effects modeling a collaborative effort
involving EPA (ORD Region 7), KSU, Georgia Tech
Flint Hills Ecoregion
Fires (red) and smoke plume (white)
http//www.emporia.edu/earthsci/student/lee1/gis.h
tml
9
Effect of Fire on Biomass Production
Aboveground Production (g m-2 yr-1)
Slide courtesy of John Blair
10
Rangeland Fires What are the ecological and air
quality tradeoffs?
11
Need to simulate how water controls ecosystem
structure and function across multiple scales,
from region
Precip (in.)
Ojima and Lackett 2002
12
to hillslopes
snobear.colorado.edu/IntroHydro/hydro.gif
13
Photo credit http//www.konza.ksu.edu/gallery/lan
dscape3.JPG
14

Hydrogeomorphic surfaces, Konza Prairie
15

With adequate spatial data, GTHM-PSM simulates
the cycling transport of water nutrients
within watersheds
30 x 30 m pixels
16
(No Transcript)
17
Stressor Scenarios
18
(No Transcript)
19
GIS Support

• Data
• Collection
• Analysis
• Management
• Collaboration
• Communication
• Web
• Metadata
• Visualization
• jack of all data
• Explorer

20
GIS Coverages (30 x 30 m)

• Elevation
• Slope, aspect, etc.
• Climate
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Solar radiation
• Relative humidity
• Land Use / Land Cover
• Vegetation type
• Grazing, cropland, etc.
• Stream flow
• Stream chemistry

• Soils
• Horizons
• Texture, bulk density
• Hydraulic conductivity
• Total C, N, P
• Geology
• Bedrock
• Impervious surfaces
• Permeability
• Boundaries
• Watersheds
• Political

21
Data Issues

• Identifying gaps
• Finding workarounds
• Soils example
• All variables not part of SSURGO
• Append SCD pedon data
• Surrogates for missingsoil types
• Regional vs. local climate
• Worldclim vs. weather stations

22
Communication

• Diffuse research team with variedbackgrounds
• They cannot see the landscape
• How to show them in wayseveryone understands
• Maps
• Videos
• 3D
• KML

23
Knowledge Distribution http//epa.adamskibbe.com/

• Web-site to distributeall information related
  to project
• Archive of all maps, data, metadata,
  presentations, etc.
• Always available for access by collaborators
• Hosted .KML files

24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
(No Transcript)
29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)
32
(No Transcript)
33
Incorporating Ecological Modeling in a
Decision-Making Framework (ENVISION)
Actors Land managers implement policies
responsive to their objectives
Landscape Feedback
Landscape Evaluators Generate landscape metrics
to assess outcomes
Human Actions
Landscape GIS Maps of current land use,
vegetation, soils, climate etc.
Update
Policy Selection
(ES Maps)
Ecological Models (GTHM-PSM)
Changes in Ecological Processes
Input
Modified from John Bolte, Oregon State University
34
Agenda

• 2. Open discussion of collaborative
  opportunities
• Calibration analysis of spatial and temporal
  controls on
• Plant biomass NPP
• Soil C N dynamics
• Fuel load dynamics
• Hillslope hydrology biogeochemistry
• Stream water quality quantity
• Linkage of ecohydrology and air quality modeling
• Air quality models (BlueSkyRAINS, others?)
• Spatial domain for regional assessments
• Scenarios burning strategies, land use, climate
  
• Ecological and air quality endpoints
• Collaboration among KSU, EPA, GT researchers

35
Kings Creek Watershed, 11 km2