Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) First Annual Conference November 18, 2004 Randolph W. Hall, University of Southern California

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Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of
Terrorism Events (CREATE)First Annual
ConferenceNovember 18, 2004Randolph W. Hall,
University of Southern California
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Center Vision
Improve the nations homeland security through
development and application of tools for
assessing the risks and consequences of
terrorism.
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Security and Society
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Center Competition

• 72 submitted white papers
• 12 selected for full proposals
• 4 selected for site visits (USC, Harvard,
  Nebraska, Pennsylvania)
• 4 million/year funding from DHS
• 1st University Center of Excellence
• CREATE universities are partnered with 2nd and
  3rd centers of excellence

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Center Activities

• Comprehensive research program, covering risks,
  consequences, response economics
• Integrated tools within a GIS environment
• Outreach to users and research community, through
  events, professional associations exchange
• Educational programs professional masters,
  short-courses, PhD fellowships, assistantships

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Interdisciplinary
Engineering
Social Sciences
Information Technology
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Service to the Nation
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Framework and Products
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Terrorist Enterprise
Criminality
Coercion
Political Aims
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Terrorist Attacks on US Interests

• 83, Beirut, EmbassyBarracks 257 lives
• 88, PanAm 103, Lockerbie 270 lives
• 93, WT Center, NY 6 lives
• 96, Saudi Arabia housing towers
• 98, US embassies, Kenya, Tanzania
• 99, OK City Federal Building 168 lives
• OO, US Cole, Yemen 17 lives
• 01, WTC, Pentagon 3000 lives
• Approximately 4000 lives over 20 years

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Comparisons

• 4000 fatalities
• 2 days of heart disease
• 2 weeks of accidents
• 5 weeks of automobile accidents
• 10 weeks of homicides

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Why Worry?

• Economic loss how people respond to the risk of
  terrorism
• Impossible to predict what will happen in the
  future based on the past
• Nuclear threat during cold war

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Modeling Steps
Risk Assessment
Consequence Assessment
Emergency Response Models
Economic Assessment
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Integration Models and Applications
Application Areas
Port
Manpad
Electricity

Modeling Areas
Risk Analysis
Consequence Assessment
Response Modeling
Economic Analysis
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Education and Outreach
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Advisory Committees

• Scientific Advisory Committee Ph.D. trained
  scientists and homeland security experts
• User Advisory Committee public
  sector/non-profit users of center products
• Industry Committee research partners and
  collaborators from private industry

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Education

• Masters/Certificate System Safety and Security
  Available via Distance Education
• Decision Analysis
• Risk Assessment
• Management of Government Programs
• Economics/Policy
• Engineering Economics
• Specialization (many choices) M.S.
• Elective M.S.

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Short Courses

• Aviation Safety and Security Program has 50 years
  of experience training aviation safety
  professionals and accident investigators
• New programs in non-aviation threats aviation
  security
• Taught through LAX facility

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Events

• Economics Workshop (August, 2004)
• Conference on Reducing the Risks and Consequences
  of Terrorism (November 18, 2004)
• Vulnerability Assessment Workshop (January, 2005)
• 2nd Economics Workshop (2005)
• Emergency Response Workshop (2005)
• Port Security Workshop

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Website www.usc.edu/create
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Some Statistics

• 15 active research projects
• Nearly 50 students involved in center
• More than 50 professionals on advisory committees
• 50 presentations on our research
• More than 20 company visits
• 3 completed research reports
• New degree and certificate programs
• New aviation security courses
• Extensive national media coverage

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Conclusions
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Todays Conference

• What risks do we face from terrorism?
• What are the potential future consequences?
• What tools are available for evaluating threats?
• How should we best invest and prepare?

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Center Messages

• Evaluate and prioritize investments in
  counter-terrorism
• Each threat and counter-measure must be placed in
  a broad context, relative to opponent goals and
  objectives
• Investments must also be placed in the context of
  all risks faced by humans
• Counter-terrorism must be as robust as the
  terrorists themselves

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