AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF)

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Title: AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF)


1
AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate
EnterpriseBoard on Enterprise CommunicationAd
Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts(ACUF)
Town Hall
  • January 23, 2008
  • AMS Annual Meeting

2
Welcome and IntroductionGeorge Frederick, CWCE
Commissioner
  • Providing forecast uncertainty information to
    Nation
  • Challenge Enterprise should take on together
  • CWCE and BEC
  • Provides forum to bring Enterprise partners
    together
  • ACUF not starting from scratch
  • Good work going on in community
  • 2006 NRC Completing the Forecast Report

3
Welcome and IntroductionMuch Interest in
Committee
4
Welcome and Introduction Town Hall Purpose
  • For Committee to share their initial plans
  • For you to share your thoughts and comments
  • Committee will meet later today to digest what
    theyve heard and kickoff their work
  • Those interested welcome to attend

5
Agenda
  • Remarks (J. Hayes, J. Myers, B. Ryan, P.
    Stephens)
  • Motivation (E. Abrams)
  • Committee overview (P. Hirschberg)
  • Workgroup 1 National needs, opportunities and
    benefits (B. Morrow)
  • Workgroup 2 Enterprise Goals (A. Stewart)
  • Workgroup 3 Needed Capabilities and Capacities
    (T. Hamill)
  • Workgroup 4 Roles and Responsibilities (B.
    Philips)
  • Workgroup 5 Roadmap (S. Tracton)
  • Open discussion
  • Contacts and additional information (A.
    Bleistein)

6
Remarks
  • Jack Hayes, NWS
  • Joel Myers, President and Founder, Accuweather
  • Bob Ryan, WNBC-4 in Washington, D.C
  • Pam Stephens, NSF

7

Motivation Elliot Abrams (ACUF Co-Chair, AccuWx)
8
Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty
  • To promote better forecast-based decisions
  • To reduce losses caused by weather and climate

9
Are probability forecasts based on meteorological
quicksand, rendering products made from them of
dubious, uncertain value?
10
Current public forecast probabilitiesProvide
the percentage chance of measurable precipitation
at a fixed location during a specified time
period, but- Give no information about how long
it will rain- Give no information about how much
it will rain-Give no contingency information
(ex the chance of rain is 50, but if it does
rain, the chance of it lasting more than 30
minutes is 5)
11
Inspiration BaseballBatting averages are taken
to three decimal places (.334)Statistical
verifications are conducted to measure past
player performance in order predict future
strategies
12
We are assigned a daunting, challenging taskBut
we have a large group of interested, smart,
engaged and determined people
13

Can we forge a way forward, get our questions
addressed, and understand what comes nextand do
all of this today?
14
Certainly!Lets get started!
15
Committee OverviewPaul Hirschberg (ACUF
Co-Chair, NWS)
  • Vision Enterprise-wide partnership that
    generates and communicates forecast uncertainty
    information meeting Nations needs for informed
    decisions
  • protecting life and property,
  • supporting national defense and homeland
    security,
  • enhancing the economy, and
  • meeting specific needs of partners, users, and
    customers.
  • Mission Develop Enterprise-wide goals and
    roadmap for providing forecast uncertainty
    information, building off NRC recommendations
  • Deliverable An Enterprise implementation
    (action) plan for forecast uncertainty that has
    been reviewed and coordinated with partners
  • Goal Enterprise partners put into effect

16
Committee Overview Enterprise Plan Components
  • Needs, opportunities, and benefits of providing
    hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty products
    and services to the Nation
  • Why is uncertainty information important?
  • Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty
    products and services
  • Specifics What will Nation get and how good
    will it be?
  • Description of what is needed to meet goals and
    reach vision
  • Solutions What is needed to do this?
  • Suggested roles and responsibilities of
    enterprise partners
  • Who should do what and with who?
  • Enterprise-wide Roadmap
  • How will all the pieces fit together?

17
Committee Overview Committee Structure
  • Organized into Topic Workgroups along major
    elements of plan deliverable
  • Work must be done in parallel
  • Coordination, Communication is key
  • Looking to use new collaboration technology,
    e.g., Wikis

18
Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsWorkgroup Composition
  • Co-leads Lee Anderson (NWS) and Betty Morrow
    (FIU)
  • Members
  • Dan Bickford (WSPA TV)
  • Julie Demuth (NCAR)
  • Jayant Deo
  • Jun Du (NCEP)
  • Bob Glahn (NWS)
  • Jenifer Martin (NCAR)
  • Dan Satterfield (WHNT TV)
  • Paul Schultz (NOAA/GSD)
  • Dick Westergard (Shade Tree Meteorology, LLC)

19
Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsDeliverables
  • Needs/requirements/opportunities categorized
  • Opportunities -- what types/forms of information
    can be provided?
  • Needs
  • End users and decision makers (weather and water)
  • Public
  • Emergency managers
  • Energy Sector
  • Service Providers
  • Private Sector
  • Academia educational initiatives as proposed by
    NRC
  • National Benefits of providing forecast
    uncertainty information
  • Construction
  • DOD
  • DHS
  • Aviation
  • Government

20
Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsMethodology
  • Review, consolidate and complement existing
    sources of information
  • Obtain an initial information set from various
    sources (e.g., surveys, research)
  • Identify major user-groups that use
    hydrometeorological information (e.g., forecasts)
  • Use various methods (e.g., surveys, conferences)
    to obtain users needs.
  • Inform users about available hydrometeorological
    information while obtaining their uncertainty
    needs.
  • Collaborate with ACUF sub-groups, and other
    related groups, to obtain additional
    requirements, and information resources.
  • Obtain and develop benefits of using uncertainty
    in products.

21
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsWorkgroup
Composition
  • Co-leads John Gaynor (OAR) and Alan Stewart
    (UGA)
  • Members
  • Barbara Brown (NCAR)
  • Chris Elfring (NAS)
  • Greg Fishel (WRAL TV)
  • Pat Hayes (Northrup Grumman)
  • Carlie Lawson (Natural Hazards Consulting)
  • Chris Maier (NWS)
  • Bernard Meisner (NWS)
  • David Novak (NWS)
  • Scott Sandgathe (APL UW)
  • Robyn Weeks (The Weather Channel)

22
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsDeliverables
  • Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty
    products and services (threshold and longer-term)
  • Outcome Goals
  • Output Goals
  • New products and services (collaboration with
    Subgroup 1) with performance goals
  • Awareness/Education/Credibility Goals

23
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsOutcome Goals
  • Lives saved and injuries prevented
  • Improve economic competitiveness and reduce
    weather-related costs
  • Enhance productivity and efficiencies in
    weather-sensitive industries
  • Some specific examples
  • More efficient surface and air transportation
  • More effective decisions and timing for
    evacuations
  • Decreased impacts of severe weather
  • More effective decisions on fuel use for power
    generation
  • More effective decisions on water resources
  • Better educated citizenry in understanding and on
    the use of uncertainty in forecasts

24
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsOutput Goals
(Collaboration with Subgroup 1)
  • By 2015, the routine dissemination and public
    communication of probabilistic weather and
    climate forecast products that are
  • timely availability of data and information
  • highly reliable
  • sharp, to the extent possible
  • competitive in skill with the best offered
    worldwide
  • available for both routine and high-impact
    events
  • available in user-defined formats and in displays
    intuitive to all users
  • with forecast verification information readily
    accessible.

25
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsAwareness/Edu
cation/Credibility Goals
  • Probabilistic forecasting standard in
    undergraduate and graduate education
  • Continuing education of meteorological community
  • Potential AMS and NWS certification
  • Public education, K-12, severe weather awareness
    talks, web pages
  • Continual innovation of product suite in response
    to user needs
  • User-defined verification routinely available

26
Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsMethodology
  • Develop a vision and set goals as a group
  • Vet vision and goals
  • ACUF meetings
  • Appropriate AMS meetings
  • Extensive outreach to users and experts
  • Other coordination efforts

27
Topic Workgroup 3SolutionsWorkgroup Composition
  • Co-chairs Tom Hamill (OAR) and Ross Hoffman
    (AER)
  • Members
  • Tom Dulong (UCAR)
  • Paul O. G. Heppner (3SI)
  • Eddie Holmes (CBM)
  • David Myrick (NWS)
  • Carla Roncoli (UGA)
  • John Schaake (retired NOAA)
  • Dan Stillman (Inst. for Global Env. Strategies)
  • Zoltan Toth (NCEP)
  • Bill Bua (NCEP)

28
Topic Workgroup 3 SolutionsDeliverables
  • Description of what is needed to meet the goals
    and reach vision

29
Topic Workgroup 3 Solutions Methodology
  • Workgroup co-leads interact with ACUF leads and
    other groups leads to formulate coordinated
    overall direction.
  • Subgroup 1, 2 will provide requirements subgroup
    3 will determine implementation strategies
    subgroup 4 will suggest who should implement
    which parts of the solution.
  • Workgroup co-leads, with help from subgroup
    members, prepares section material. As needed,
    workgroup members interact with broader community
    to flesh out details. Regular telecons for
    coordination.
  • Existing examples analyzedwhat works, what
    doesnt
  • Workgroups material is synthesized by ACUF
    co-leads and workgroup leads.
  • Workgroup also vets ACUF reports.
  • Overall roadmap is critiqued by broader
    community.
  • Iterate based on feedback from enterprise members.

30
Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesWor
kgroup Composition
  • Co-chairs John Sokich (NWS) and Brenda Philips
    (UMASS)
  • Members
  • Matthew Biddle (OU)
  • David Bright (SPC)
  • Gordon Brooks (AFWA)
  • Gina Eosco (Cornell U)
  • John Ferree (NWS)
  • Jim Hansen (NRL)
  • Paul Nutter (Univ. No. CO)
  • Dan OHair (OU)

31
Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesDel
iverables
  • List of all Enterprise Partners with contact info
    and relevant areas of expertise for use by
    sub-groups
  • Compilation of ACUF Best Practices
  • Best practices for cross-enterprise collaboration
  • Impediments for collaboration
  • Implementation roles/responsibilities of
    enterprise members
  • Advocacy plan
  • After ACUF how to move forward

32
Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesMet
hodology
  • Information gathering
  • Town Hall meeting at AMS
  • Other Weather and Climate Enterprise meetings
  • Weather and Climate Enterprise database ?
  • Interviews with selected ACUF enterprise members
    for case studies/testbeds
  • Literature/policy review (eg NRC report
    Crossing the Valley of Death, Fair Weather)

33
Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapWorkgroup Composition
  • Co-chairs Steve Tracton (retired NOAA) and Neil
    Stuart (NWS)
  • Members
  • Jon Ahlquist (FSU)
  • Peter Browning (NWS)
  • Dan C. Collins (NCEP)
  • Chuck Doswell (OU)
  • Mary Erickson (NOS)
  • Rebecca Morss (UCAR)
  • Leonard Smith (London School of Economics)
  • Bernadette Woods (WJZ TV)

34
Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapDeliverables
  • Enterprise-Wide, Strategic Roadmap (including
    alternatives)
  • THE primary overall ACUF deliverable
  • End-to-End milestones and timelines
  • Relevant, effective and meaningful metrics of
    progress

35
Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapMethodology
  • Integrate input from subgroups in context of
    appropriate strategic planning and roadmapping
    templates
  • Pro-active interaction/coordination between
    subgroups
  • and outreach to Enterprise members and
    constituents (push and pull
    perspectives achieve consensus)
  • Strategic Roadmapping
  • Link strategies to realistically achievable
    action plans (? Threshold
    Objectives)
  • Re-evaluate and re-visit pathway as warranted
    (not static)
  • Off ramps to actions/implementations
    (low-hanging fruit)
  • On ramps to accommodate newly identified
    opportunities, strategies, etc.

36
Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapMethodology (contd)
  • Critical Path Analysis
  • Temporal ordering of sequential and parallel
    activities
  • represent stages of project co-dependencies
  • Identify critical activities (predecessors)
    required before other action can continue
  • Identify float activities can be extended or
    delayed without jeopardizing project
  • Identify what if scenarios and linkages

Start
SIMPLISTIC SCHEMATIC
End
Transformation from traditional to ensemble based
forecast system where uncertainty is assessed,
propagated and conveyed throughout entire
forecast process (End to End)
37
ACUFTimeline
  • Finalize Committee Charter identify workgroup
    leads and memberships (Nov. 07)
  • Develop draft Committee work plan including
    workgroup deliverables, methodologies, tasks,
    timelines, and resource needs (Dec. 07)
  • Discuss and review work plan at AMS Annual
    Meeting Town Hall and Full Committee Meeting
    (Jan. 08)
  • Finalize Committee work plan (Feb. 08)
  • Workgroups meet as necessary accomplish tasks
    (Jan.Aug. 08)
  • Full Committee review of preliminary workgroup
    deliverables via briefings (Sept. 08)
  • First draft of Workgroup Sections (Oct. 08)
  • First draft of complete Enterprise Implementation
    Plan (Dec. 08)
  • Full Committee review of first draft Enterprise
    Implementation Plan - at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan.
    09)
  • Stakeholder review and comment of draft
    Implementation Plan (Feb.-May 09)
  • Final draft of Enterprise Implementation Plan
    (Sept. 09)

38
ACUF Town Hall
  • Open Discussion

39
ACUF Contact and Information
  • Please contact Andrea Bleistein
    andrea.bleistein_at_noaa.gov
  • ACUF Town Hall slides are posted at
    http//www.ametsoc.org/dl
  • Full Committee Meeting Today all welcome
  • 430 530 Hilton Riverside, Rosedown Room
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