Title: AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF)
1AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate
EnterpriseBoard on Enterprise CommunicationAd
Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts(ACUF)
Town Hall
- January 23, 2008
- AMS Annual Meeting
2Welcome and IntroductionGeorge Frederick, CWCE
Commissioner
- Providing forecast uncertainty information to
Nation - Challenge Enterprise should take on together
- CWCE and BEC
- Provides forum to bring Enterprise partners
together - ACUF not starting from scratch
- Good work going on in community
- 2006 NRC Completing the Forecast Report
3Welcome and IntroductionMuch Interest in
Committee
4Welcome and Introduction Town Hall Purpose
- For Committee to share their initial plans
- For you to share your thoughts and comments
- Committee will meet later today to digest what
theyve heard and kickoff their work - Those interested welcome to attend
5Agenda
- Remarks (J. Hayes, J. Myers, B. Ryan, P.
Stephens) - Motivation (E. Abrams)
- Committee overview (P. Hirschberg)
- Workgroup 1 National needs, opportunities and
benefits (B. Morrow) - Workgroup 2 Enterprise Goals (A. Stewart)
- Workgroup 3 Needed Capabilities and Capacities
(T. Hamill) - Workgroup 4 Roles and Responsibilities (B.
Philips) - Workgroup 5 Roadmap (S. Tracton)
- Open discussion
- Contacts and additional information (A.
Bleistein)
6Remarks
- Jack Hayes, NWS
- Joel Myers, President and Founder, Accuweather
- Bob Ryan, WNBC-4 in Washington, D.C
- Pam Stephens, NSF
7Motivation Elliot Abrams (ACUF Co-Chair, AccuWx)
8Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty
- To promote better forecast-based decisions
- To reduce losses caused by weather and climate
9Are probability forecasts based on meteorological
quicksand, rendering products made from them of
dubious, uncertain value?
10Current public forecast probabilitiesProvide
the percentage chance of measurable precipitation
at a fixed location during a specified time
period, but- Give no information about how long
it will rain- Give no information about how much
it will rain-Give no contingency information
(ex the chance of rain is 50, but if it does
rain, the chance of it lasting more than 30
minutes is 5)
11Inspiration BaseballBatting averages are taken
to three decimal places (.334)Statistical
verifications are conducted to measure past
player performance in order predict future
strategies
12We are assigned a daunting, challenging taskBut
we have a large group of interested, smart,
engaged and determined people
13Can we forge a way forward, get our questions
addressed, and understand what comes nextand do
all of this today?
14Certainly!Lets get started!
15Committee OverviewPaul Hirschberg (ACUF
Co-Chair, NWS)
- Vision Enterprise-wide partnership that
generates and communicates forecast uncertainty
information meeting Nations needs for informed
decisions - protecting life and property,
- supporting national defense and homeland
security, - enhancing the economy, and
- meeting specific needs of partners, users, and
customers. - Mission Develop Enterprise-wide goals and
roadmap for providing forecast uncertainty
information, building off NRC recommendations - Deliverable An Enterprise implementation
(action) plan for forecast uncertainty that has
been reviewed and coordinated with partners - Goal Enterprise partners put into effect
16Committee Overview Enterprise Plan Components
- Needs, opportunities, and benefits of providing
hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty products
and services to the Nation - Why is uncertainty information important?
- Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty
products and services - Specifics What will Nation get and how good
will it be? - Description of what is needed to meet goals and
reach vision - Solutions What is needed to do this?
- Suggested roles and responsibilities of
enterprise partners - Who should do what and with who?
- Enterprise-wide Roadmap
- How will all the pieces fit together?
17Committee Overview Committee Structure
- Organized into Topic Workgroups along major
elements of plan deliverable - Work must be done in parallel
- Coordination, Communication is key
- Looking to use new collaboration technology,
e.g., Wikis
18Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsWorkgroup Composition
- Co-leads Lee Anderson (NWS) and Betty Morrow
(FIU) - Members
- Dan Bickford (WSPA TV)
- Julie Demuth (NCAR)
- Jayant Deo
- Jun Du (NCEP)
- Bob Glahn (NWS)
- Jenifer Martin (NCAR)
- Dan Satterfield (WHNT TV)
- Paul Schultz (NOAA/GSD)
- Dick Westergard (Shade Tree Meteorology, LLC)
19Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsDeliverables
- Needs/requirements/opportunities categorized
- Opportunities -- what types/forms of information
can be provided? - Needs
- End users and decision makers (weather and water)
- Public
- Emergency managers
- Energy Sector
- Service Providers
- Private Sector
- Academia educational initiatives as proposed by
NRC - National Benefits of providing forecast
uncertainty information
20Topic Workgroup 1 National Needs and
BenefitsMethodology
- Review, consolidate and complement existing
sources of information - Obtain an initial information set from various
sources (e.g., surveys, research) - Identify major user-groups that use
hydrometeorological information (e.g., forecasts)
- Use various methods (e.g., surveys, conferences)
to obtain users needs. - Inform users about available hydrometeorological
information while obtaining their uncertainty
needs. - Collaborate with ACUF sub-groups, and other
related groups, to obtain additional
requirements, and information resources. - Obtain and develop benefits of using uncertainty
in products.
21Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsWorkgroup
Composition
- Co-leads John Gaynor (OAR) and Alan Stewart
(UGA) - Members
- Barbara Brown (NCAR)
- Chris Elfring (NAS)
- Greg Fishel (WRAL TV)
- Pat Hayes (Northrup Grumman)
- Carlie Lawson (Natural Hazards Consulting)
- Chris Maier (NWS)
- Bernard Meisner (NWS)
- David Novak (NWS)
- Scott Sandgathe (APL UW)
- Robyn Weeks (The Weather Channel)
22Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsDeliverables
- Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty
products and services (threshold and longer-term) - Outcome Goals
- Output Goals
- New products and services (collaboration with
Subgroup 1) with performance goals - Awareness/Education/Credibility Goals
23Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsOutcome Goals
- Lives saved and injuries prevented
- Improve economic competitiveness and reduce
weather-related costs - Enhance productivity and efficiencies in
weather-sensitive industries - Some specific examples
- More efficient surface and air transportation
- More effective decisions and timing for
evacuations - Decreased impacts of severe weather
- More effective decisions on fuel use for power
generation - More effective decisions on water resources
- Better educated citizenry in understanding and on
the use of uncertainty in forecasts
24Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsOutput Goals
(Collaboration with Subgroup 1)
- By 2015, the routine dissemination and public
communication of probabilistic weather and
climate forecast products that are - timely availability of data and information
- highly reliable
- sharp, to the extent possible
- competitive in skill with the best offered
worldwide - available for both routine and high-impact
events - available in user-defined formats and in displays
intuitive to all users - with forecast verification information readily
accessible.
25Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsAwareness/Edu
cation/Credibility Goals
- Probabilistic forecasting standard in
undergraduate and graduate education - Continuing education of meteorological community
- Potential AMS and NWS certification
- Public education, K-12, severe weather awareness
talks, web pages - Continual innovation of product suite in response
to user needs - User-defined verification routinely available
26Topic Workgroup 2 Enterprise GoalsMethodology
- Develop a vision and set goals as a group
- Vet vision and goals
- ACUF meetings
- Appropriate AMS meetings
- Extensive outreach to users and experts
- Other coordination efforts
27Topic Workgroup 3SolutionsWorkgroup Composition
- Co-chairs Tom Hamill (OAR) and Ross Hoffman
(AER) - Members
- Tom Dulong (UCAR)
- Paul O. G. Heppner (3SI)
- Eddie Holmes (CBM)
- David Myrick (NWS)
- Carla Roncoli (UGA)
- John Schaake (retired NOAA)
- Dan Stillman (Inst. for Global Env. Strategies)
- Zoltan Toth (NCEP)
- Bill Bua (NCEP)
28Topic Workgroup 3 SolutionsDeliverables
- Description of what is needed to meet the goals
and reach vision
29Topic Workgroup 3 Solutions Methodology
- Workgroup co-leads interact with ACUF leads and
other groups leads to formulate coordinated
overall direction. - Subgroup 1, 2 will provide requirements subgroup
3 will determine implementation strategies
subgroup 4 will suggest who should implement
which parts of the solution. - Workgroup co-leads, with help from subgroup
members, prepares section material. As needed,
workgroup members interact with broader community
to flesh out details. Regular telecons for
coordination. - Existing examples analyzedwhat works, what
doesnt - Workgroups material is synthesized by ACUF
co-leads and workgroup leads. - Workgroup also vets ACUF reports.
- Overall roadmap is critiqued by broader
community. - Iterate based on feedback from enterprise members.
30Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesWor
kgroup Composition
- Co-chairs John Sokich (NWS) and Brenda Philips
(UMASS) - Members
- Matthew Biddle (OU)
- David Bright (SPC)
- Gordon Brooks (AFWA)
- Gina Eosco (Cornell U)
- John Ferree (NWS)
- Jim Hansen (NRL)
- Paul Nutter (Univ. No. CO)
- Dan OHair (OU)
31Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesDel
iverables
- List of all Enterprise Partners with contact info
and relevant areas of expertise for use by
sub-groups - Compilation of ACUF Best Practices
- Best practices for cross-enterprise collaboration
- Impediments for collaboration
- Implementation roles/responsibilities of
enterprise members - Advocacy plan
- After ACUF how to move forward
32Topic Workgroup 4 Roles and ResponsibilitiesMet
hodology
- Information gathering
- Town Hall meeting at AMS
- Other Weather and Climate Enterprise meetings
- Weather and Climate Enterprise database ?
- Interviews with selected ACUF enterprise members
for case studies/testbeds - Literature/policy review (eg NRC report
Crossing the Valley of Death, Fair Weather)
33Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapWorkgroup Composition
- Co-chairs Steve Tracton (retired NOAA) and Neil
Stuart (NWS) - Members
- Jon Ahlquist (FSU)
- Peter Browning (NWS)
- Dan C. Collins (NCEP)
- Chuck Doswell (OU)
- Mary Erickson (NOS)
- Rebecca Morss (UCAR)
- Leonard Smith (London School of Economics)
- Bernadette Woods (WJZ TV)
34Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapDeliverables
- Enterprise-Wide, Strategic Roadmap (including
alternatives) - THE primary overall ACUF deliverable
- End-to-End milestones and timelines
- Relevant, effective and meaningful metrics of
progress
35Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapMethodology
- Integrate input from subgroups in context of
appropriate strategic planning and roadmapping
templates - Pro-active interaction/coordination between
subgroups - and outreach to Enterprise members and
constituents (push and pull
perspectives achieve consensus) - Strategic Roadmapping
- Link strategies to realistically achievable
action plans (? Threshold
Objectives) - Re-evaluate and re-visit pathway as warranted
(not static) - Off ramps to actions/implementations
(low-hanging fruit) - On ramps to accommodate newly identified
opportunities, strategies, etc.
36Topic Workgroup 5 RoadmapMethodology (contd)
- Critical Path Analysis
- Temporal ordering of sequential and parallel
activities - represent stages of project co-dependencies
- Identify critical activities (predecessors)
required before other action can continue - Identify float activities can be extended or
delayed without jeopardizing project - Identify what if scenarios and linkages
Start
SIMPLISTIC SCHEMATIC
End
Transformation from traditional to ensemble based
forecast system where uncertainty is assessed,
propagated and conveyed throughout entire
forecast process (End to End)
37ACUFTimeline
- Finalize Committee Charter identify workgroup
leads and memberships (Nov. 07) - Develop draft Committee work plan including
workgroup deliverables, methodologies, tasks,
timelines, and resource needs (Dec. 07) - Discuss and review work plan at AMS Annual
Meeting Town Hall and Full Committee Meeting
(Jan. 08) - Finalize Committee work plan (Feb. 08)
- Workgroups meet as necessary accomplish tasks
(Jan.Aug. 08) - Full Committee review of preliminary workgroup
deliverables via briefings (Sept. 08) - First draft of Workgroup Sections (Oct. 08)
- First draft of complete Enterprise Implementation
Plan (Dec. 08) - Full Committee review of first draft Enterprise
Implementation Plan - at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan.
09) - Stakeholder review and comment of draft
Implementation Plan (Feb.-May 09) - Final draft of Enterprise Implementation Plan
(Sept. 09)
38ACUF Town Hall
39ACUF Contact and Information
- Please contact Andrea Bleistein
andrea.bleistein_at_noaa.gov - ACUF Town Hall slides are posted at
http//www.ametsoc.org/dl - Full Committee Meeting Today all welcome
- 430 530 Hilton Riverside, Rosedown Room