Changes in the Labor Market and the Impact on Central N.Y. Workforce

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Changes in the Labor Market and the Impact on
Central N.Y. Workforce

• John Twomey
• NYATEP
• Community Discussion
• October 4, 2006

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What Well Talk About Today

• We all know something different is going on in
  the economy, we will look at six of the
  underlying factors as a prelude to how can these
  challenges best be addressed in Central New York
  

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Because something is happening hereBut you don't
know what it isDo you, Mister Jones?- Bob Dylan

• Major upheaval ahead in the Economy because
• Baby Boomer Retirements
• Big Demographic shifts
• Increased payoff on educational attainment
• Global Competitors Actions
• Immigration Issues
• Is it Off Shoring or Technological changes

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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Baby Boomer Retirements

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Civilian Labor Force by Generation National
Statistics
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Shifting Demographics

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Workforce Diversity National
Statistics

• 2003 2010 2050
• White 73 65 53
• (Non-Hispanic)
• Hispanic 11 16 24
• Black 12 13 14
• Asians 5 7.3 11

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Labor Force Drivers Increasing Diversity
Labor Force Growth Rates, 1993-2003
Percentage Growth
The number of minorities in New York States

labor force grew dramatically
between 1993 and 2003.
Source Current Population Survey, various years
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Youth and the Workforce Looking Ahead
Percentage Change in High School Graduates, by
Region, New York State,
1997-2003 and 2003-2013
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NYC Suburbs
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New York State
5
6
Upstate Metro
-2
6
NYC
-4
-3
Upstate Non-Metro
-14
Source NYSDOL Analysis of New York State
Department of Education data
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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Hugely Increased Payoff on Educational Attainment

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Employment Change by Education 1992-2002
National Statistics
Employment Policy Foundation tabulation of BLS
Statistics
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Education Post-High School Matters National
Statistics

• 75 of new job growth requires some level of
  post-high school training
• 1980 200019 growth in workers with post-high
  school education
• 2000 20204 growth in workers with post-high
  school education

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How Do We Stack Up ?
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Okay, so a 4 year degree leads to high
wages.Yet
New
York Statistics

• This year NYs Community Colleges will graduate
  7,000 more A.A. degree recipients than can be
  accepted into our 4 year SUNY colleges
• So even though 62 of community college students
  work full time (nationally), according to the
  American Association of Community Colleges, if
  you cant pull a 3.0 grade point average, you
  cant get in to SUNY Albany with your new A.A.
  degree.

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Pell Grants
National Statistics

• The maximum Pell Grant is currently only 4,050
• Pell can not effectively be used for most part
  time students. Many low-income working adults
  discover that they can benefit very little or not
  at all from Pell, due to an eligibility formula
  that calculates the Cost of Attendance
  differently for students attending half-time or
  more versus those attending less than half-time.
  Less than half-time students can count only a
  limited range of expenses - tuition, fees, books
  and supplies, dependent care expenses and
  transportation - towards their costs of attending
  school.
• Remember 62 of part time CC students work full
  time
• Since 1980, the Pell Program appropriations have
  been insufficient to meet the needs of all
  eligible students.

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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Global Competition in the new 24/7 World

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Four Year College Graduates 1999 2005

USA 1.3 million 1.3 million

China 950,000 2.5 million
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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Immigration

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Where Does Immigration Fit in this Debate

• Immigration is a gigantic factor in the US
  workforce right now
• Last 5 years 43 of all the population growth in
  United States is from immigration
• 79.6 of immigrants are working, higher than
  overall US labor force participation
• How big is this issue?
• Percent of foreign born in US labor force 1980
  7.9
• This percent in 2000 jumped to 15.8

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The Dog That Didnt Bark

• Immigration reform in Congress has been in the
  news
• With all the press focus on immigration reform,
  almost no attention is being paid to immigration
  policies favoring high-skilled , well educated
  immigrants --from Fortune Magazine March 30,
  2006
• Since last August there have been -- with a
  couple of small exceptions -- no H1B visas
  available for skilled workers. And there won't be
  any new ones issued until October. "I represent a
  large number of multinational companies," Angelo
  Paparelli (an immigration lawyer with offices in
  New York and Irvine California) says, "and the
  attitude behind the scenes is, If America won't
  let the H1Bs in, we'll go and create the jobs
  elsewhere."

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Major Drivers of Change in the Economy

• Is it Offshoring or Technology ?

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A Day in the Life

• Travels with John, Summer 2005
• The Airport
• The Rental Car Counter
• The Tool Booth
• The Hotel
• Kinkos
• The Train Station
• The Chorus (thats you)
• These were all jobs you could raise a family on
  with a high school diploma, probably had a
  pension health coverage.

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Changing Jobs

• None of the top 10 jobs in 2010 exist today.
• Former Ed. Secretary Richard Riley
• Average person today will have 10-14 careers.
• Average job will last 3 5 years.
• Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich

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Workforce Funding as we confront these
extraordinary challenges

• According to Congress General Accountability
  Office (GAO)
• In 1978 we spent 9.5 Billion on job training
• Adjusted for inflation wed have to spend 30
  Billion today to stay at the same level
• Instead we are spending 3.5 Billion today
• Put another way, in this time of incredible
  challenge to our national economic security, we
  are spending 11.7 of what we spent 28 years ago
  !!

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In a Nutshell Thats What I Know

• Sometimes the biggest risk of all is staying the
  same
• For More information contactJohn Twomey at
  jtwomey_at_nyatep.org