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Climate Change Research at the Regional Level: California

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Title: Climate Change Research at the Regional Level: California


1
Climate Change Research at the Regional Level
California
  • Guido Franco
  • Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program
  • California Energy Commission

February 22, 2010
2
Outline
  • Brief history of regional climate change research
    in California
  • Recent Impact Assessments
  • Vulnerability/Adaptation Study
  • CalAdapt

3
Brief history of regional climate change research
in California
4
Climate Change Science Informing Policy in CA
  • The Energy Commission led the preparation of the
    first CA Assessment in 1988 (AB 4420)
  • Studies at the national and international levels
    have been extremely useful
  • Federal agencies (USGCRP) are designing a new
    National Assessment

5
Climate Change Research at the Energy Commission
  • PIER was created in the late 1990s and started
    working in earnest on climate change in 2001
    (80 million/yr)
  • First PIER Assessment released in 2003
  • PIER created the California Climate Change Center
    in 2003
  • First state-sponsored CC research initiative in
    the USA
  • Designed to complement national/international
    programs
  • Annual budget 6 million
  • Areas of research 1) climate monitoring,
    analysis, and modeling 2) GHG inventory methods
    3) Options to reduce net GHG emissions and 4)
    impacts and adaptation studies
  • More than 200 scientific PIER reports produced so
    far most of them also published in the
    peer-reviewed literature

6
Long-term Research Strategy an example
  • Probabilistic climate projections for California
    at adequate temporal and geographical resolutions
    for research and long-term planning

7
Probabilistic Climate Projections
Research groups Scripps, UC Santa Cruz, LBNL,
LLNL, Santa Clara U.
Use of statistical and dynamic models
Region B daily and 10 Km x 10 Km
8
Basic Science ProjectsAerosols and Regional
Climate (an example)
  • 2004 PIER study by Prof. Mark Jacobson (Stanford)
    suggested that aerosols are affecting our
    regional climate and precipitation levels
  • Aerosols may be reducing precipitation by about
    12 in the Sierra Nevada
  • Study by Prof. Rosenfeld (Hebrew University) et
    al. using research aircraft, satellite
    measurements, and numerical modeling seems to
    confirm this finding.
  • A study by Prof. Ramanathan (Scripps) suggests
    that BC from Asia is affecting our climate and
    may be reducing snow albedo in the Sierra Nevada
  • CalWater project under way
  • Why do we need to focus on this topic?
  • Properly model climate
  • Potential adaptation option

Source Rosenfeld, D., W. L. Woodley, D. Axisa,
E. Freud, J. G. Hudson, and A. Givati (2008),
Aircraft measurements of the impacts of pollution
aerosols on clouds and precipitation over the
Sierra Nevada, J. Geophys. Res.,
doi10.1029/2007JD009544, in press.
9
Development of new tools to properly study
impacts and adaptation options
SWAN Delf University of Technology
  • CALVIN model
  • Coastal Geomorphic Evolution Model (CGEM) SWAN
    provides input data
  • Dynamic ecological model for California
  • INFORM demonstration project for five major
    reservoirs in Northern CA
  • -Climate Analyses (e.g,. role of irrigation on
    climate in the Central Valley)

CALVIN
10
Recent Impact Assessments
11
2006 Impacts Study
  • Led by PIER
  • About 17 scientific papers
  • Special Issue in Climatic Change

Our Changing Climate contributed to the passage
of AB32
12
2009 Assessment
13
General Approach
Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Physical Impacts
Economic Outcomes
Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP)
Howitt et al. (UC Davis)
Lobell and Field (Stanford)
Sanstad et al., (LBNL, PPIC, LLLN, CEC)
Uncertainty
Demographic and Urban Projections
14
2009 Impact Study (Assessment)
  • 40 different studies on public health, coastal
    resources, energy, air quality, agriculture,
    forestry, ecosystems, and extreme events.
  • Common set of climate and SLR scenarios,
    population and urban projections
  • About 100 scientists involved
  • Final peer-reviewed papers posted

SF Bay Wastewater Treatment Plants Vulnerable to
Sea Level Rise
15
Vulnerability and Adaptation Study
16
2009 California Adaptation Strategy
  • Unveiled by the Governor on 12/2/2009
  • Requires the preparation of a Vulnerability
    Assessment for California
  • Creates a high level Advisory Committee that will
    report to the Governor late this year
  • Requires updating and improving the CalAdapt
    website

http//climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html
17
Vulnerability Study
  • Statewide plus local/regional studies
  • Physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities
  • Coastal studies
  • Coastal flood probabilities for five locations in
    California (Scripps Inst. Of Oceanography)
  • Using LiDAR (USGS, NOAA), flood probabilities,
    and wave run-up to estimate impacts in Central CA
    (UC Berkeley)
  • Local adaptation studies for Santa Cruz and
    Ventura (UC Santa Cruz)
  • Barriers to adaptation (possible)

18
CalAdapt
19
Motivation
  • Huge amount of scientific information being
    produced by the PIER Center and others
  • There is a need to efficiently transfer
    information/data to local decision makers
  • 2009 California Adaptation Strategy

http//climatechange.ca.gov/visualization/index.ht
ml
20
Prototype
21
CalAdapt
  • PIER and Google.org are collaborating
  • The final version will have three levels of
    information
  • Level 1 Educational material for the general
    public
  • Level 2 Access of data (moderate sizes) and
    reports
  • Level 3 Availability of huge data sets (mostly
    for researchers and technical staff) or links
  • Results of the Vulnerability Study will be
    displayed in CalAdapt

22
Climatic Projections
23
Sea Level Rise Impacts
24
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