2nd Annual Pileus Project

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• 2nd Annual Pileus Project
• General Stakeholder Advisory Group Meeting
• March 9, 2004 400-600 PM

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WELCOME! Introductions Lori Martin
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News Comments from the EPA Jeanne Bisanz
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Review of the Agriculture Climate Teams
Progress To Date Dr. Julie Winkler
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Pileus Project Tourism Team
Dr. Sarah Nicholls
Dr. Don Holecek
PI and leads Tourism Team identify and
communicates with key stakeholders oversees
advisory groups web site tools and all aspects
of the Tourism Team.
Literature review lead development of camping
model stakeholder relations.
Charles Shih Jeonghee Noh
Lori A. Martin
Data management and demand analysis development
of the tourism/economic model.
Coordination, communications and marketing
develop and maintain stakeholder relations
report production.
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Primary Objective

• To develop tools that tourism and outdoor
  recreation businesses in Michigan can use to
  incorporate climate variability and change into
  their planning activities

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Rationale for Current Study

• There is a need for studies that
• Are more location (site) specific
• Focus on the shorter term
• Focus on the bottom-line

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Why Research Tourism?

• Assessment revealed that data needs to be in more
  useable form for stakeholders to use  short term
  time frame
• Tourism businesses operate with relatively narrow
  profit margins
• Weather dependent
• Profitability is often very reliant on
  seasonality

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Tourism Outdoor Recreation in Michigan

• Are vital to Michigans economy society
• Are extremely weather-dependent
• Are very sensitive to climate variability
  change
• Yet, are also subject to a multitude of other
  influences

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Other Influences on Tourism

• Leisure time
• Demographics
• Socioeconomics
• Economic factors
• Consumer confidence, interest rates, gas prices
• Prices entrance fees, equipment, etc.
• Competition (from local to international)
• Technological innovations

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Overview of Research Strategy
Literature Review
Conceptual Model(s), Data Needs, Identify
Cooperators
General Stakeholder Advisory Group
Technical Stakeholder Advisory Groups
Empirical Model(s), Add Cooperators
Identify Sources of Relevant Secondary Data,
Access Refine Available Data
Database(s) Development
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Assess Exploratory Power of Conceptual Variables,
Identify Probable Missing Variables
Develop Pilot Empirical Model(s)
Mitigate Missing Variable(s) Problem
Collect Primary Data
Develop Refined Empirical Model(s)
Field Test Refined Empirical Model(s)
Critical Review By Stakeholders
Operational Model(s) for Stakeholder Application
Evaluate
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Literature Review

• The likely impacts of climate variability
  change on outdoor recreation tourism have been
  seriously understudied (Morehouse, 2001)
• Studies to date have
• Been scattered (in area activity)
• Been broad (in areas time frames)
• Been conducted mostly by physical geographers
  climatologists
• Paid little attention to economic issues

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Key Research Groups Contacts

• Climatic Research Unit, University of East
  Anglia, UK (Viner, Agnew)
• Adaptation Impacts Research Group of
  Environment Canada/Faculty of Environmental
  Studies, University of Waterloo, Canada (Scott,
  Wall, McBoyle, Mills)

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Stakeholder Involvement Introduction of Project

• 1st General Stakeholder Advisory Group Meeting,
  March 2003
• Michigan Tourism Outlook Conference, March 2003 -
  Presentation, Andresen
• Midwest Ski Area Association Conference, August
  2003 - Attended, Martin

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• TTRA CenStates Conference, Sept 2003 -
  Presentation, Martin
• Tourism Industry Coalition of Michigan, October
  December 2003 - Presentations, Martin, Holecek
  Andresen
• Michigan Association of Convention Visitor
  Bureaus, December 2003 - Presentation, Martin
  Holecek
• 2nd General Tourism Stakeholder Advisory Group
  Meeting, March 2004

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Related Activities

• First International Conference on Climate Change
  Tourism, April 2003 - Attended, conference
  report in Annals of Tourism Research, Nicholls
• European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop
  on Climate Change, Environment Tourism, June
  2003 - Attended, Nicholls

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Outreach to Date

• East Lakes-West Lakes Meeting of Association of
  American Geographers, October 2003 -
  Presentation, Nicholls Shih
• NATO Advanced Research Workshop, NATO Science
  Series - Chapter, Nicholls
• Preparation of articles for, e.g., Journal of
  Leisure Research

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Future Outreach

• Annual Meeting of AAG, March 2004 - Presentation,
  Nicholls
• Second International Workshop on Climate, Tourism
  Recreation, June 2004 - Presentation, Nicholls
• Annual Michigan Tourism Conference, October 2004
  - Presentation and/or exhibit, Holecek Martin

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Three Tourism Outdoor Recreation Models

• Comprehensive based on traffic counts
• Downhill Skiing Snowboarding
• Camping

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1Comprehensive Model
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Conceptual Comprehensive Model

• Traffic f (weather conditions, economy, season,
  day of week, population, etc.)

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Traffic Trends 1991-2000 (US 127 Clare)
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Traffic Trends 1991-2000 (US 127 Clare)
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Comprehensive Tourism Model

• Regarding Traffic Counts
• Traffic Daily traffic volume of Station 4129
  between 1991 2000, provided by MDOT
• Counts are bi-directional (Northbound
  Southbound)
• New set of traffic counts were generated to
• better represent the flow of tourists
• MondayThursday Traffic (NBSB)/2
• Saturday
• Friday Traffic NB
• Sunday Traffic SB

4129
Lake City
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Comprehensive Tourism Model

• Variable Definition and Data Sources
• Daily high temperatures and precipitation Daily
  observations from the Lake City weather station
  provided by the Climate Team
• CCI Consumer Confidence Index for the East North
  Central Region (MI, OH, WI, IN, IL) (Conference
  Board)
• Seasons Spring (March, April, May), Summer
  (June, July, August), Fall (September, October,
  November), and Winter (December, January,
  February)
• Days of the week Friday and Sunday, Saturday and
  Weekdays (Monday through Thursday)
• Holiday New Years Day, Memorial Day,
  Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and
  Christmas

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Comprehensive Tourism ModelRegression Analysis
Dependent variable is the logarithm of traffic
volume Overall R-Square0.820 Winter dummy
variable gas prices were not significant
dropped from the model
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Comprehensive Tourism ModelRegression Analysis
Durbin-Watson Stat 1.192
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Comprehensive Model Forecasting Example

• of Vehicles ConstantB1TempB2PrecipB3CCI
  B4SummerB5FallB6FriSunB7SatB8HolidayB9
  Year
• Scenario Friday of July, 2005 (non-holiday)
• Temperature Average (mean), warmer (1 std
  deviation above mean), cooler (1 std deviation
  below mean)
• of Vehicles Average 13,552
• Warmer 14,296
• Cooler 12,845

1,500
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2Downhill Skiing Snowboarding Model
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(No Transcript)
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Crystal Mountain Resort Weather Stations
Weather Station
Crystal Mountain Resort
Lake City
Greenville
Pontiac
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Downhill Skiing Snowboarding Model

• Variable Definition Data Sources
• Skier number of daily tickets sold at Crystal
  Mountain Ski Resort between 1996 2002
• Weather daily minimum temperatures daily snow
  depth for the Lake City station provided by the
  Climate Team Snow depths of two other stations
  Greenville Pontiac also included
• Regional CCI
• Weekend Friday, Saturday, Sunday
• Holiday Christmas break through New Years day,
  excluding weekends
• Peakseason December, January, February

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Downhill Skiing Snowboarding Model
Regression Analysis of Crystal Mt. Skiers
(1996-2002)
R-square 0.543 Gas prices snow fall were
dropped due to insignificance Durbin-Watson Stat
1.318
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Skiing Model Forecasting Example

• of Skiers ConstantB1TempB2SnowdepthB3CCI
  B4PontiacSnowdepthB5WeekendB6PeakseasonB8H
  olidayB9Year
• Scenario Saturday of February, 2005
• Snow depth Average (mean), more snow (1 std
  deviation above mean), less snow (1 std deviation
  below mean)
• of Skiers Average 1,301
• More Snow 1,402
• Less Snow 1,201

200
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3Camping Model
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Camping Model

• Camping f (weather conditions (rain, excess
  heat, humidity), bugs, economy, season, day of
  week, population, etc.)

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Work Plan for Years 2 3

• Year 2
• Refine extend the Comprehensive Downhill
  Skiing Snowboarding Models
• Develop preliminary campground model
• Define user-friendly interface for decision
  support tools
• Year 3
• Refine Campground Model
• Outreach with decision support tools for all
  models