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Scenario Development for International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)

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Title: Scenario Development for International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)


1
Scenario Development for International Assessment
of Agricultural Science and Technology for
Development (IAASTD)
Mark W. Rosegrant IFPRI Washington DC, USA
2
Overview of the Talk
  • What is IAASTD?
  • What are scenarios and why use them?
  • Proposed approach for IAASTD scenarios
  • Overview of IMPACT global food and water model
  • Knowledge, Science and Technology (KST) in
    scenario modeling

3
IAASTD Overarching Question
  • How to reduce hunger and poverty, improve rural
    livelihoods, and facilitate equitable,
    environmentally, socially and economically
    sustainable development through access to, and
    use of agricultural knowledge, science and
    technology?

4
IAASTD Four Broad Questions
  • What are the challenges that can be addressed
    through agricultural KST?
  • What are the likely positive and negative
    consequences of agricultural KST?
  • What are the enabling conditions required to
    optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural
    KST?
  • What investments are needed to help realize the
    potential of agricultural KST?

5
IAASTD Characteristics
  • Structural features
  • Intergovernmental process, with a
    multi-stakeholder Bureau
  • Co-sponsored by seven international agencies
    FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank, and WHO
  • Based on an international consultative process
    and well-defined user needs
  • Prepared and peer-reviewed by hundreds of experts
    from all stakeholder groups
  • Substance features
  • Multi-thematic (nutritional security,
    livelihoods, human health, environmental
    sustainability)
  • Multi-spatial using a consistent framework
  • Multi-temporal (now to 2050) employing plausible
    futures
  • Integrates indigenous and institutional knowledge
  • Assesses scientific knowledge and the
    effectiveness of institutions and policies

6
IAASTD Conceptual Framework
  • Human Impacts on
  • Incomes and employment
  • Hunger
  • Human health
  • Resilience and vulnerability
  • Social and Gender Equality
  • Economic diversification
  • Rural livelihoods
  • Quality of natural environment
  • Social Stability
  • Indirect change drivers
  • Economic
  • Demographic (urbanization, migration)
  • Socio-political (policies and institutions)
  • Cultural and ethical (values)
  • Global KST
  • Direct change drivers
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Volume and pattern of demand
  • Consumption patterns
  • Labor availability
  • Land and water availability
  • Agricultural policy and regulatory environment
  • GHG emissions and Climate change
  • Farmers decisions
  • Agricultural goods and Services
  • Food production
  • Fiber, oils, material
  • Biomass/energy
  • Medicines
  • Landscape and environmental management
  • Carbon sequestration
  • Agro-ecosystem function
  • Agricultural KST
  • New knowledge (including policies)
  • New technologies (biological and non-biological)
  • Harnessing/Maintenance/adaptation
  • of indigenous knowledge
  • Effective knowledge exchange systems
  • KST system responsiveness adaptability
  • KST system accountability

7
What are Scenarios and Why Use Them?
  • Scenarios are stories about the future with a
    logical plot and narrative governing the manner
    in which events unfold
  • Purpose of scenarios
  • Information dissemination
  • Scientific exploration
  • Decision-making tool
  • Types of scenarios
  • Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios
  • Baseline vs. policy scenarios
  • Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a
    combination

8
IAASTD Approach to Scenarios
  • Structured accounts of possible futures
  • Describe futures that could be, rather than
    futures that will be
  • Alternative, dynamic stories that capture key
    ingredients of our uncertainty about the future
    of our study system
  • Constructed to provide insight into drivers of
    change, reveal the implications of current
    trajectories, and illuminate options for action
  • Encompass quantitative models and realistic
    projections, but much of their value lies in
    incorporating both qualitative and quantitative
    understandings of the system and in forcing
    people to evaluate and reassess their beliefs and
    assumptions about the system
  • What are the consequences of plausible changes in
    development paths for hunger, poverty
    alleviation, human health, and the environment?

9
Scenario Development Process for IAASTD
  • Procedure builds from MA approach and
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    methodology
  • Integrates qualitative and quantitative scenarios
  • Qualitative understandable way to communicate
    complex information, considerable depth,
    comprehensive feedback effects and incorporate a
    wide range of views about the future
  • Quantitative check the consistency of
    qualitative scenarios, provide relevant numerical
    information and enrich qualitative scenarios by
    trends and dynamics

10
Scenario Development Framework
  • Two essential activities
  • Formulation of alternative scenario storylines
  • facilitates internal consistency of different
    assumptions
  • takes into account broad range of elements and
    feedback effects
  • Quantification
  • helps provide insights into those processes where
    sufficient knowledge exists to allow modeling
  • takes into account interactions among various
    drivers and services

11
Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase I Organizational steps Establish a scenario team. Establish a scenario panel. Conduct interviews and workshops with scenario end users (broad stakeholder consultation). Determine the objectives and focus of the scenarios. Clarify the focal questions of the scenarios.
12
Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase II Scenario writing and quantification Construct a zero-order draft of scenario storylines. Organize modeling analyses and begin quantification. Revise zero-order storylines and construct first-order storylines Quantify scenarios. Augment/revise storylines based on results of quantifications. Derive new driving forces and re-run the models.
13
Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase III Synthesis, review and dissemination Distribute draft scenarios for general review. Develop final version of the scenarios. Publish and disseminate the scenarios.
14
Drivers and Outputs
  • Population development total population and age
    distribution in different regions
  • Economic development assumed growth of GDP per
    region and changes in economic structure
  • Technology development covers many model inputs
    such as rate of improvement in the efficiency of
    domestic water use, or the rate of increase in
    crop yields
  • Demanddietary preferences and dynamics of change
  • Human behavior willingness of people to invest
    time or money in energy conservation or water
    conservation
  • Institutional factors existence and strength of
    local, national, and global institutions to
    promote education, international trade and
    international technology transfer
  • International technology transfer represented
    directly (e.g. trade barriers, import tariffs) or
    indirectly (e.g. income elasticity for education)

15
Four Forward-looking Scenarios
Environmentally reactive
Order from Strength
Global Orchestration
globalized
fragmented
Techno Garden
Adapting Mosaic
Environmentally pro-active
16
Global Orchestration
Focus on macro-scale policy reform for
environmental sustainability
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements public goods Redefinition of the public and private sector roles improving market performance trade liberalization focus on global public good Increase global equity public health global education
17
Order from Strength
Retreat from global institutions, focus on
national regulation and protectionism
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Reactive problem-solving by individual nations sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency Security and protection
18
Adapting Mosaic
Retreat from global institutions, focus on
strengthened local institutions and local learning
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions Focus on local development trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation local non-market rights Local communities linked to global communities local equity
19
Techno Garden
Emphasis on development of technologies to
substitute for ecosystem services
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property Improving individual and community technical expertise policies follow opportunities competition
20
Modeling to Quantify Parts of the MA scenarios
21
Population Growth
Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions
Region    Global Orchestration  Global Orchestration  Global Orchestration Techno Garden   Techno Garden   Techno Garden   Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Order from Strength Order from Strength
1995 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100
Former Soviet Union 285 290 282 245 292 281 252 288 273 246 287 257 216
Latin America 477 637 742 681 672 831 950 708 933 1,155 710 944 1,309
Middle East/North Africa 312 478 603 597 509 692 788 537 765 924 539 774 972
OECD 1,020 1,136 1,255 1,153 1,117 1,154 1,077 1,079 1,068 978 1,076 998 856
Asia 3,049 3,861 4,104 3,006 4,039 4,535 3,992 4,201 4,992 4,753 4,210 5,023 5,173
Sub-Saharan Africa 558 858 1,109 1,132 907 1,329 1,516 951 1,492 1,775 956 1,570 1,988
World 5,701 7,260 8,095 6,814 7,537 8,821 8,575 7,764 9,522 9,830 7,777 9,567 10,514
22
Income Growth (GDP/cap/year)
Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year)
Region  Historic  Global Orchestration  Global Orchestration  Global Orchestration Techno Garden   Techno Garden   Techno Garden   Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Order from Strength Order from Strength
1971-2000 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100
Former Soviet Union 0.4 3.50 4.91 3.14 2.94 4.49 3.14 2.60 4.03 3.08 2.24 2.64 2.72
Latin America 1.2 2.80 4.28 2.24 2.36 3.93 2.24 2.06 2.99 2.23 1.78 2.29 1.77
Middle East/North Africa 0.7 1.96 3.42 2.50 1.74 3.27 2.50 1.61 2.43 2.40 1.51 1.75 1.93
OECD 2.1 2.45 1.93 1.34 2.22 1.74 1.35 2.00 1.56 1.19 2.06 1.31 0.86
Asia 5.0 5.06 5.28 3.08 4.24 4.70 3.13 3.76 4.12 2.52 3.22 2.43 2.07
Sub-Saharan Africa -0.4 1.69 3.97 4.08 1.44 3.80 4.08 1.21 2.85 3.31 1.02 2.12 2.16
World 1.4 2.38 3.00 2.26 1.90 2.46 2.25 1.46 1.91 1.88 1.39 1.04 1.26
23
Sample Qualitative Scenarios for IAASTD
  • Intensive agriculture emphasis on
  • Intensive agriculture
  • Economic growth
  • Public goods
  • Low input agriculture
  • Low-input agricultural technology
  • Adaptive ecosystem targeting
  • Agricultural science and technology targeted to
    ecosystems
  • Indigenous technology and participatory breeding
  • Rates of change in dietary preferences
  • Convergence to Western diets, decline in Western
    meat demand, acceptance of biofortication

24
KST within a Policy Modeling Framework
  • K - different from S and T - latent and not
    easily measured
  • KST - hard to separate due to obvious feedbacks
  • Observing S T
  • in cross-section can be used to construct a
    possibility frontier additional models
  • observe over time to identify trends and
    underlying drivers

25
How to Account for Knowledge
  • Knowledge - embodied in
  • education (for the general population)
  • agricultural extension
  • Indigenous knowledge
  • Agricultural extension - has direct effects on
    crop productivity and yields
  • Education
  • enhance overall labor productivity (not only in
    agriculture)
  • positive effects in nutrition outcomes (through
    malnutrition work)

26
Should we Endogenize Science and Technology ?
  • Keeping ST exogenous - allows one to look at
    clear counter-factual comparisons and scenarios
  • Endogenizing ST may restrict the range of
    investment scenarios that can be examined
  • Not clear if necessary length of data over time
    is available to properly specify an endogenous
    relationship for Science and Technology

27
Science and Technology in Scenarios
SUPPLY SIDE
  • Changes in rainfed and irrigated area growth for
    crops
  • Changes in rainfed and irrigated yield growth for
    crops
  • Changes in numbers and yield growth for livestock
  • Changes in production growth for 4 types of
    fisheries commodities (high value vs. low value)

28
Science and Technology in Scenarios
DEMAND SIDE
  • Changes in dietary preferences over time (leading
    to changes in kilocalorie composition)
    disaggregation to the potential impact of
    micronutrient breeding

29
Science and Technology in Scenarios
ALSO
  • Estimation of the impact of
  • biosafety and biotechnology regulations and
    phyto-sanitary restrictions
  • changes in supply and demand on child
    malnutrition
  • crop yields from climate change
  • Subsidies, taxes, tariffs and other trade
    restrictions

30
Spatially Disaggregating
  • Impact of KST-related investments on productivity
    growth, can be better captured with the following
    disaggregations
  • Greater spatial resolution for production of food
    and water allocations
  • Disaggregation of crop categories to explicitly
    model dryland crops
  • Differentiation between high and low-input
    rain-fed agriculture
  • Disaggregation among GMO and non-GMO options

31
The Education-Nutrition Relationship in
IMPACT-WATER
  • Malnourished children are projected as follows
  • MALt - 25.24 ln (PCKCALt) - 71.76 LFEXPRATt
  • - 0.22 SCHt - 0.08 WATERt
  • NMALt MALt x POP5t
  • MAL Percent of malnourished children
  • PCKCAL Per capita calorie consumption
  • SCH Total female enrollment in secondary
    education as a of the female age-group
  • LFEXPRAT Ratio of female to male life exp. at
    birth
  • WATER Percent of people with access to clean
    water
  • NMAL Number of malnourished children, and
  • POP5 Number of children 0 to 5 years old

32
How to Account for Investments
  • Current model framework examines the impact of
    investments made in
  • Roads
  • Irrigation
  • Schools
  • Safe water
  • Agricultural technology
  • Can further disaggregate agricultural technology
    investments to account for GMO and non-GMO
    technologies, drought/salt tolerant variety
    breeding, etc.
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