Title: Scenario Development for International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)
1Scenario Development for International Assessment
of Agricultural Science and Technology for
Development (IAASTD)
Mark W. Rosegrant IFPRI Washington DC, USA
2Overview of the Talk
- What is IAASTD?
- What are scenarios and why use them?
- Proposed approach for IAASTD scenarios
- Overview of IMPACT global food and water model
- Knowledge, Science and Technology (KST) in
scenario modeling
3IAASTD Overarching Question
- How to reduce hunger and poverty, improve rural
livelihoods, and facilitate equitable,
environmentally, socially and economically
sustainable development through access to, and
use of agricultural knowledge, science and
technology?
4IAASTD Four Broad Questions
- What are the challenges that can be addressed
through agricultural KST? - What are the likely positive and negative
consequences of agricultural KST? - What are the enabling conditions required to
optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural
KST? - What investments are needed to help realize the
potential of agricultural KST?
5IAASTD Characteristics
- Structural features
- Intergovernmental process, with a
multi-stakeholder Bureau - Co-sponsored by seven international agencies
FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank, and WHO - Based on an international consultative process
and well-defined user needs - Prepared and peer-reviewed by hundreds of experts
from all stakeholder groups - Substance features
- Multi-thematic (nutritional security,
livelihoods, human health, environmental
sustainability) - Multi-spatial using a consistent framework
- Multi-temporal (now to 2050) employing plausible
futures - Integrates indigenous and institutional knowledge
- Assesses scientific knowledge and the
effectiveness of institutions and policies
6IAASTD Conceptual Framework
- Human Impacts on
- Incomes and employment
- Hunger
- Human health
- Resilience and vulnerability
- Social and Gender Equality
- Economic diversification
- Rural livelihoods
- Quality of natural environment
- Social Stability
- Indirect change drivers
- Economic
- Demographic (urbanization, migration)
- Socio-political (policies and institutions)
- Cultural and ethical (values)
- Global KST
- Direct change drivers
- Biodiversity loss
- Volume and pattern of demand
- Consumption patterns
- Labor availability
- Land and water availability
- Agricultural policy and regulatory environment
- GHG emissions and Climate change
- Farmers decisions
- Agricultural goods and Services
- Food production
- Fiber, oils, material
- Biomass/energy
- Medicines
- Landscape and environmental management
- Carbon sequestration
- Agro-ecosystem function
- Agricultural KST
- New knowledge (including policies)
- New technologies (biological and non-biological)
- Harnessing/Maintenance/adaptation
- of indigenous knowledge
- Effective knowledge exchange systems
- KST system responsiveness adaptability
- KST system accountability
7What are Scenarios and Why Use Them?
- Scenarios are stories about the future with a
logical plot and narrative governing the manner
in which events unfold - Purpose of scenarios
- Information dissemination
- Scientific exploration
- Decision-making tool
- Types of scenarios
- Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios
- Baseline vs. policy scenarios
- Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a
combination
8IAASTD Approach to Scenarios
- Structured accounts of possible futures
- Describe futures that could be, rather than
futures that will be - Alternative, dynamic stories that capture key
ingredients of our uncertainty about the future
of our study system - Constructed to provide insight into drivers of
change, reveal the implications of current
trajectories, and illuminate options for action - Encompass quantitative models and realistic
projections, but much of their value lies in
incorporating both qualitative and quantitative
understandings of the system and in forcing
people to evaluate and reassess their beliefs and
assumptions about the system - What are the consequences of plausible changes in
development paths for hunger, poverty
alleviation, human health, and the environment?
9Scenario Development Process for IAASTD
- Procedure builds from MA approach and
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
methodology - Integrates qualitative and quantitative scenarios
- Qualitative understandable way to communicate
complex information, considerable depth,
comprehensive feedback effects and incorporate a
wide range of views about the future - Quantitative check the consistency of
qualitative scenarios, provide relevant numerical
information and enrich qualitative scenarios by
trends and dynamics
10Scenario Development Framework
- Two essential activities
- Formulation of alternative scenario storylines
- facilitates internal consistency of different
assumptions - takes into account broad range of elements and
feedback effects - Quantification
- helps provide insights into those processes where
sufficient knowledge exists to allow modeling - takes into account interactions among various
drivers and services
11Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase I Organizational steps Establish a scenario team. Establish a scenario panel. Conduct interviews and workshops with scenario end users (broad stakeholder consultation). Determine the objectives and focus of the scenarios. Clarify the focal questions of the scenarios.
12Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase II Scenario writing and quantification Construct a zero-order draft of scenario storylines. Organize modeling analyses and begin quantification. Revise zero-order storylines and construct first-order storylines Quantify scenarios. Augment/revise storylines based on results of quantifications. Derive new driving forces and re-run the models.
13Proposed IAASTD Procedure for Developing
Scenarios Three Phases
Phase III Synthesis, review and dissemination Distribute draft scenarios for general review. Develop final version of the scenarios. Publish and disseminate the scenarios.
14Drivers and Outputs
- Population development total population and age
distribution in different regions - Economic development assumed growth of GDP per
region and changes in economic structure - Technology development covers many model inputs
such as rate of improvement in the efficiency of
domestic water use, or the rate of increase in
crop yields - Demanddietary preferences and dynamics of change
- Human behavior willingness of people to invest
time or money in energy conservation or water
conservation - Institutional factors existence and strength of
local, national, and global institutions to
promote education, international trade and
international technology transfer - International technology transfer represented
directly (e.g. trade barriers, import tariffs) or
indirectly (e.g. income elasticity for education)
15Four Forward-looking Scenarios
Environmentally reactive
Order from Strength
Global Orchestration
globalized
fragmented
Techno Garden
Adapting Mosaic
Environmentally pro-active
16Global Orchestration
Focus on macro-scale policy reform for
environmental sustainability
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements public goods Redefinition of the public and private sector roles improving market performance trade liberalization focus on global public good Increase global equity public health global education
17Order from Strength
Retreat from global institutions, focus on
national regulation and protectionism
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Reactive problem-solving by individual nations sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency Security and protection
18Adapting Mosaic
Retreat from global institutions, focus on
strengthened local institutions and local learning
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions Focus on local development trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation local non-market rights Local communities linked to global communities local equity
19Techno Garden
Emphasis on development of technologies to
substitute for ecosystem services
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property Improving individual and community technical expertise policies follow opportunities competition
20Modeling to Quantify Parts of the MA scenarios
21Population Growth
Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions Population in Millions
Region Global Orchestration Global Orchestration Global Orchestration Techno Garden Techno Garden Techno Garden Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Order from Strength Order from Strength
1995 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100
Former Soviet Union 285 290 282 245 292 281 252 288 273 246 287 257 216
Latin America 477 637 742 681 672 831 950 708 933 1,155 710 944 1,309
Middle East/North Africa 312 478 603 597 509 692 788 537 765 924 539 774 972
OECD 1,020 1,136 1,255 1,153 1,117 1,154 1,077 1,079 1,068 978 1,076 998 856
Asia 3,049 3,861 4,104 3,006 4,039 4,535 3,992 4,201 4,992 4,753 4,210 5,023 5,173
Sub-Saharan Africa 558 858 1,109 1,132 907 1,329 1,516 951 1,492 1,775 956 1,570 1,988
World 5,701 7,260 8,095 6,814 7,537 8,821 8,575 7,764 9,522 9,830 7,777 9,567 10,514
22Income Growth (GDP/cap/year)
Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year) Economic Growth Rates (percent per year)
Region Historic Global Orchestration Global Orchestration Global Orchestration Techno Garden Techno Garden Techno Garden Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Order from Strength Order from Strength
1971-2000 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100 1995-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100
Former Soviet Union 0.4 3.50 4.91 3.14 2.94 4.49 3.14 2.60 4.03 3.08 2.24 2.64 2.72
Latin America 1.2 2.80 4.28 2.24 2.36 3.93 2.24 2.06 2.99 2.23 1.78 2.29 1.77
Middle East/North Africa 0.7 1.96 3.42 2.50 1.74 3.27 2.50 1.61 2.43 2.40 1.51 1.75 1.93
OECD 2.1 2.45 1.93 1.34 2.22 1.74 1.35 2.00 1.56 1.19 2.06 1.31 0.86
Asia 5.0 5.06 5.28 3.08 4.24 4.70 3.13 3.76 4.12 2.52 3.22 2.43 2.07
Sub-Saharan Africa -0.4 1.69 3.97 4.08 1.44 3.80 4.08 1.21 2.85 3.31 1.02 2.12 2.16
World 1.4 2.38 3.00 2.26 1.90 2.46 2.25 1.46 1.91 1.88 1.39 1.04 1.26
23Sample Qualitative Scenarios for IAASTD
- Intensive agriculture emphasis on
- Intensive agriculture
- Economic growth
- Public goods
- Low input agriculture
- Low-input agricultural technology
- Adaptive ecosystem targeting
- Agricultural science and technology targeted to
ecosystems - Indigenous technology and participatory breeding
- Rates of change in dietary preferences
- Convergence to Western diets, decline in Western
meat demand, acceptance of biofortication
24KST within a Policy Modeling Framework
- K - different from S and T - latent and not
easily measured - KST - hard to separate due to obvious feedbacks
- Observing S T
- in cross-section can be used to construct a
possibility frontier additional models - observe over time to identify trends and
underlying drivers
25How to Account for Knowledge
- Knowledge - embodied in
- education (for the general population)
- agricultural extension
- Indigenous knowledge
- Agricultural extension - has direct effects on
crop productivity and yields - Education
- enhance overall labor productivity (not only in
agriculture) - positive effects in nutrition outcomes (through
malnutrition work)
26Should we Endogenize Science and Technology ?
- Keeping ST exogenous - allows one to look at
clear counter-factual comparisons and scenarios - Endogenizing ST may restrict the range of
investment scenarios that can be examined - Not clear if necessary length of data over time
is available to properly specify an endogenous
relationship for Science and Technology
27Science and Technology in Scenarios
SUPPLY SIDE
- Changes in rainfed and irrigated area growth for
crops - Changes in rainfed and irrigated yield growth for
crops - Changes in numbers and yield growth for livestock
- Changes in production growth for 4 types of
fisheries commodities (high value vs. low value)
28Science and Technology in Scenarios
DEMAND SIDE
- Changes in dietary preferences over time (leading
to changes in kilocalorie composition)
disaggregation to the potential impact of
micronutrient breeding
29Science and Technology in Scenarios
ALSO
- Estimation of the impact of
- biosafety and biotechnology regulations and
phyto-sanitary restrictions - changes in supply and demand on child
malnutrition - crop yields from climate change
- Subsidies, taxes, tariffs and other trade
restrictions
30Spatially Disaggregating
- Impact of KST-related investments on productivity
growth, can be better captured with the following
disaggregations
- Greater spatial resolution for production of food
and water allocations - Disaggregation of crop categories to explicitly
model dryland crops - Differentiation between high and low-input
rain-fed agriculture - Disaggregation among GMO and non-GMO options
31The Education-Nutrition Relationship in
IMPACT-WATER
- Malnourished children are projected as follows
- MALt - 25.24 ln (PCKCALt) - 71.76 LFEXPRATt
- - 0.22 SCHt - 0.08 WATERt
- NMALt MALt x POP5t
- MAL Percent of malnourished children
- PCKCAL Per capita calorie consumption
- SCH Total female enrollment in secondary
education as a of the female age-group - LFEXPRAT Ratio of female to male life exp. at
birth - WATER Percent of people with access to clean
water - NMAL Number of malnourished children, and
- POP5 Number of children 0 to 5 years old
32How to Account for Investments
- Current model framework examines the impact of
investments made in - Roads
- Irrigation
- Schools
- Safe water
- Agricultural technology
- Can further disaggregate agricultural technology
investments to account for GMO and non-GMO
technologies, drought/salt tolerant variety
breeding, etc.