Introduction to damage and needs assessment methodology and basic concepts

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Introduction to damage and needs
assessmentmethodology and basic concepts

• Session 1World Bank InstituteRicardo Zapata
  Marti
• UN ECLAC

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Purposes of disaster valuation

• Serve as a means to mobilize external
  cooperation, assistance and loans
• Become a tool in policy formulation and
  post-disaster resource allocation
• Become a tool in long-term risk mitigation
  strategy setting
• Determine needs for reconstruction and
  mitigation
• Create historical record

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Information needs of disaster valuation

• Type
• Contribution of analysts in all sectors of the
  economy, as well as social scientists
• Geographically specific information
• Final analysis must have both disaggregated and
  national accounting versions
• Sources
• Ex ante data (pre-existing conditions, baselines)
• Ex-post data (on the basis of numerous sources
  and estimates from the affected population to
  economic, social and environmental effects. Can
  be both primary and second-hand.)

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Disasters framework for valuation
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Vulnerability
Exposure to risks given the existing
institutional and socioeconomic situation,
manifested in

• Marginalization,
• Informal housing and economy,
• Poverty,
• Conditions in human settlements and the
  situationof productive activities (primary,
  industrial, tertiaryor services) their linkage
  internally and with the environment.

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Phases in a disaster
The disaster cycle

• Emergency
• Rehabilitation
• Reconstruction
• Prevention and Mitigation
• Alert and Preparation

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The disaster cycle and needs assessment

• Emergency
• In the immediate aftermath,
  priority is to save lives
• Assessment efforts can begin affected
  population, deaths, wounded,
  missing, direct damages to property and
  infrastructure, both public and
  private.

• Rehabilitation
• Priority is to return activities in
  the affected area to normal.
• Assessment of direct and indirect
  damages can begin, and an appraisal
  should be initiated of secondary
  effects.

• Reconstruction
• Priority is to implement mitigation
  so that pre-disaster vulnerability is
  not rebuilt.
• Ex construction projects modify
  pre-existing infrastructure and
  environmental conditions that led to
  damage by the disaster.

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Connecting the cycle link between needs
assessment and mitigation

• Mitigation measures rely on specific information
  provided by the needs assessment
• Mitigation includes
• Allocating resources toward institutional,
  organizationaland structural measures
• Training and organization, including at the
  community level
• Devising early warning systems
• Ownership of actions is fundamental to build
  trust

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Timeliness and accuracy of valuation

• Window of need Window of opportunity
• Timely response to needs
• Valuation must aim to reduce disaster impact and
  avoid reconstruction of preexisting vulnerability
• Assessment must be done in time to mobilize
  necessary internal and / or external resources to
  help
• Accuracy
• Valuation must aim to ensure comparability and
  methodological consistency, and
• To be acceptable by technical standards
• Judgment calls, assumptions and indirect
  calculations are necessary
• The acceptable margin of error is 10-12
• Valuation must nonetheless be accurate enough to
  attract investment and projects

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Disaster valuation concepts

• Direct damages
• Impact on assets
• Infrastructure
• Capital
• Stocks
• Occur immediately during or after the phenomenon
  that caused the disaster

• Indirect damages
• Effects on flows
• Production
• Reduced income and increased expenses
• Are perceived after the phenomenon, for a
  time-period that can last from weeks to months,
  till recuperation occurs

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Sector by sector valuation methodology

• Social Sectors
• Housing
• Health
• Education, culture, sports
• Infrastructure
• Transport and communications
• Energy
• Water and sewerage

• Productive sectors
• Goods agriculture, industry
• Services commerce, tourism, etc.
• Global impact
• On the environment
• Gender perspective
• Employment and social conditions
• Macroeconomic assessment

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Social sector

• Each social groups degree of vulnerability to a
  natural disaster is different, and the severity
  of negative impact of natural disasters is as
  directly related to social inequalities and
  deprivations as to the natural hazard itself.
• A Social Impact Assessment (SIA) can be crucial
  in determining
• What mitigation is necessary
• What mitigation alternatives exist
• Which mitigation strategies are most likely to
  work
• Accurate assessments of impacts should pay
  attention to gendered differentials and must be
  based on sound pre-existing socio-demographic
  data

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Dynamic global effects

• Macroeconomic effects
• Repercussions on the national or regional economy
  after disaster
• The duration of repercussions depending on the
  characteristics and magnitude of disaster
• The effects are reflected by
• Gross Domestic Product growth
• Performance of the external sector
• Evolution of public finance
• Increases of prices and inflation

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Disaster risk reduction

• Internal policies
• Include vulnerability reduction as an objective
  of development plans alongside goals of
• Competitive growth
• Equitable development
• Sustainable and sustained development
• Social participation
• External policies
• Introduce risk management as part of the
  regional/international agenda, alongside
• External competitive insertion
• Benefiting from the globalization process
• Inclusive regional insertion

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Disaster risk reduction

• Sectoral components
• Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting,
  including at the local level
• Contingency plans in key sectors, for example
• Agriculture, cattle raising,
• Rural poverty,
• Energy and baselines
• Water and health
• Interconnected systems
• Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of
  private enterprise
• Focused plans for vulnerable groups, including
  for employment, food availability and nutrition
• Education to reduce vulnerability