Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem

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Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological
Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the
Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem
Co-Principal Investigators Dr. Mark Harwell
Dr. Ping Hsieh Dr. Wenrui Huang Dr.
Elijah Johnson Dr. Katherine Milla Dr.
Hongqing Wang Dr. Glynnis Bugna Dr. Kevin
Dillon Dr. Jack Gentile
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Research Project Objective
To develop a coupled physical-ecological model
of the Apalachicola Bay ecosystem that can be
used as a quantitative tool to assess the
ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic
stressors
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Apalachicola Bay Study Area
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Apalachicola Bay
River Management
Forest Management
Development
Urbanization
Navigation Water withdrawals
Fire control Harvesting timber Etc.
Septic Runoff Etc.
Runoff Erosion Chemical releases
Altered Salinity Regime
Sedimentation
Pathogens
Nutrients
Turbidity
Mechanisms Human consumption issues
Mechanisms Turbidity, Light D.O. Etc.
Mechanisms Salinity tolerances Invasive
predators
Mechanisms Light availability
Mechanisms Enrichment Competition
Habitat mosaic Distribution, pattern etc. of
habitats
Oyster Bars Areal extent Productivity, Closures Et
c.
Inter-Tidal Habitats Areal extent Mosaic, etc.
Water Column Productivity Spp.
Composition, Productivity, Etc..
Migratory Birds Abundance Distribution
Beach/Dune Habitats Turtles, birds, other species

Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Abundance, Distribu
tion Health
Soft-bottom Benthic Communities Infauna Epifauna,
etc.
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Apalachicola Bay Salt and Freshwater Marshes
River Water Management
Sea-Level Rise
Development
Navigation Water withdrawals
Runoff Erosion Chemical releases
Altered Flow Regime
Changes in Water Quality
Altered Salinity Regime
Sedimentation
Mechanisms Burial Suffocation, Gill clogging
Mechanisms Low D.O. Reduced Light Etc.
Mechanisms Alter sediment type Erosion Altered
salinity
Mechanisms Altered mean salinity Altered
frequency of low salinity events
Selected Species Abundance Health e.g.,
gators Turtles, Halophytes etc.
Areal Extent Of Marshes
Biogeochemical Processes Nutrient
dynamics Decomposition, etc.
Primary Production Spartina/Typha etc.
Productivity
Exotic Species Abundance Distribution e.g.,
Phragmites etc.
Macroinvert. Community Abundance Diversity
Water Quality Nutrients DO Turbidity, etc.
Nursery Function Fish and Invertebrates
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Research Tasks

1. Adopt 3-D hydrodynamic model to Apalachicola Bay
   (based on Princeton Ocean Model)
2. Interface hydrodynamic model with EPA WASP WQ
   Model
3. Calibrate MODBRNCH to Apalachicola River
4. Ecological and WQ data gathering - using existing
   info, including high-resolution hyperspectral
   imaging
5. Develop ecological models for salt marsh,
   oysters, and landscape systems
6. Integrate data and models via GIS data layers
7. Conduct demonstration ecological risk assessment

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APALACHICOLA BAY WATER QUALITY MODEL
SALT MARSH MODELS
RISK ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS
OYSTER MODEL
APALACHICOLA BAY LANDSCAPE GIS
APALACHICOLA BAY HYDRO- DYNAMIC MODEL
HABITAT SUITABILITY MODEL
APALACHICOLA RIVER MODEL
Modeling Framework for Coupled Apalachicola System
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Characteristics of Apalachicola Bay

• Shallow water, multiple tidal boundaries.
• Strong freshwater discharge
  Qmin155 m3, Qave770 m3, Qmax2300 m3.
• River discharge perpendicular to the estuarine
  axis and a long barrier island.
• Strong vertical stratification near the river.

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Multiple tidal forces with different amplitudes
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Strong Vertical Stratification
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The Hydrodynamic Model

• Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (Blumberg and Mellor,
  1987)
• Semi-implicit, finite-difference method
• Second-order turbulent closure (Mellor and
  Yamada)

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Model grid
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Model Calibration Surface Elevation at S397
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Model Calibration Salinity
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Tidal Circulation 12 hr, high
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Salinity at flood tide
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SUMMARY

• Model is calibrated to simulate 3D hydrodynamics
  and salinity in the Bay.
• Estuarys characteristics a) multiple
  tidal forces with different amplitudes, b) strong
  river discharge perpendicular to the estuarine
  axis, c) shallow water.