Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management

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Closing the Loop Modeling the coho salmon life
cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and
management
Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob
Francis, and Vera Agostini
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• OCN
• Oregon Coastal Natural
• Coho salmon
• Aggregate of 13 basins
• Rain-fed streams
• Threatened status (on and off)

D Air Temperature Data
O Streamflow Data
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The OCN Problem OCN Recruits (t1) and Spawners
(t-2)
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OCN Recruits (t1) and OPIH survival (t)
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OCN smolts and smolts/spawner reconstructed from
OPIH- and GAM-estimated marine survivals. 1992
estimate omitted from analysis.
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Environmental data sets -- freshwater

• 1969-1999 smolt year
• Stream Flow
• From 6 USGS gauging stations
• Monthly mean flow
• Standardized at each station, then averaged
• Air Temperature
• From 3 WRCC locations
• Annual mean air temperature
• Standardized at each station, then averaged

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Partial plots for OCN smolts
Fall Transitionv
Fall Transition
Annual Temperature
Winter Flow (t1)
Spring Flow (t1)
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Observed and fitted OCN smolts
Smolts
Year
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So why should we believe this?
Because I repeated the analysis with a
completely independent data set from the Queets
River, Washington.

• One basin
• Glacier-fed
• 1981-2000 smolt years
• Smolts and spawners measured directly
• No dams
• Flow data from USGS -- one station
• Air temperature data from WRCC -- one station

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Results for Queets Smolts
Winter Flow (t1)
Annual Temperature
Smolts
Year
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The bottom lineMarine and freshwater
environmental variables are correlated so that
good (poor) marine survival is associated with
good (poor) freshwater production.
Year SST.JFM.t0 Trans UW.AMJ SST.JFM.t1
SST.JFM.t0 0.466 1
Trans 0.246 0.225 1
UW.AMJ -0.239 -0.196 -0.462 1
SST.JFM.t1 0.439 0.134 0.261 -0.140 1
Fall Trans 0.058 -0.019 -0.235 0.011 0.124
P4 -0.054 -0.125 0.352 0.175 -0.054
P5 0.156 0.047 0.468 -0.399 0.082
Ann Temp 0.676 0.375 0.424 -0.461 0.359
Marine
Freshwater
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Metapopulation Dynamics
Population Dynamics
Harvest Management
Freshwater Habitat
Marine Survival
Climate Patterns
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lt 35
200 thousand
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Local Extinction Probabilities with Zero Harvest
and Two Harvest Policies
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DONT PANIC! The model is definitive, reality may
vary.
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Nine Questions to Validate Models

• 1. Is the structure adequate to serve the
  purposes for which it will be used?
• 2. What characteristics of the simulated system
  have been left out or simplified?
• 3. What might the effects be?
• 4. How do model structure and behavior compare to
  similar models?
• 5. How are uncertainty and error incorporated
  into the analysis, and how do the results depend
  on uncertainties and assumptions?

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Nine Questions to Validate Models (cont'd)

• 6. Are the parameter definitions and ranges
  justifiable?
• 7. Does the model produce expected behaviors for
  ordinary, as well as extraordinary cases-i.e.,
  have the authors defined the range over which the
  model is valid, and the circumstances under which
  the model is questionable or invalid?
• 8. Does the model respond appropriately and
  usefully to simulated policies?
• 9. How does the analysis relate to the problem as
  it is defined, and the conclusions drawn?

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Lawson 1993
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PDO Projected by Hadley Centre Model
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Peter LawsonNMFS/NWFSC2030 SE Marine Science
DriveNewport, OR 97365541-867-0430peter.w.lawso
n_at_noaa.gov