Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable Development

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Energy Development in China - From a View Point
of Sustainable Development

• Yang Hongwei, Zhou Dadi
• Energy Research Institute, P. R. China
• yanghw_at_mx.cei.gov.cn
• SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigation
• Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
• 19 June 2004

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World Energy Trend
IEA, 2003. (Mtoe)
1971 2000 2010 2020 2030
Coal 1449 2355 2702 3154 3606
Oil 2450 3604 4272 5020 5769
Natural gas 895 2085 2794 3498 4203
Nuclear power 29 674 753 728 703
Hydropower 104 228 274 320 366
Other renewables 73 233 336 477 618
Total 5000 9179 11131 13198 15265
IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal 2228 3003-4235 3836-5504 4666-7186 4738-8227 4872-9457
Oil 3854 4214-5280 4223-6922 4050-9201 3625-11273 3273-13903
Natural gas 2473 2928-3481 3653-4922 4471-6813 5402-9486 6619-13369
Nuclear power 230 268-371 327-726 359-1275 547-1933 911-2930
Bio-energy 1139 897 900-1470 1280-2080 1890-3070 2870-4600
Other renewables 271 300-360 370-550 530-960 760-1960 1140-3990
Total 10193 12100-13400 14100-17000 16500-21400 18900-26400 21300-31200
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• Stable increase in world energy demand and
  consumption
• Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the
  following decades
• Impacts of technology development on future
  energy utilization
• Role of environment in energy development is
  becoming more important
• Environmental issue has played an important role
  in the energy development of many countries, as
  one of the most important reasons why many
  countries selected oil and natural gas as major
  energy sources
• Climate change will exert important influence on
  long term energy development in many countries

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Different situation for energy development

• Oil natural gas dominant period?
• Optimization of final consumption has completed?
• Local environmental protection strict standard,
  higher environmental cost?
• Constraints for nuclear power development?

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China is a developing country

• Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars
• Per capita commercial energy consumption is only
  1 tce
• More than 60 people live in the rural area,
  living on the agriculture
• Need another 50 years to become a middle level
  developed country

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Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries(US)
(1995 constant price).
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Pre capita living areas (m2)
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Per capita car ownership
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Per capita steel production (kg/person)
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Social economic development, the highest priority

• Economic development is and will be the dominant
  social target
• To be a middle level developed country by the
  middle of this century
• High economic growth rate is expected, needed,
  and possible for longer period

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Long process for industrialization

• Industrialization is still the main course of
  economic and social development for decades
• Manufacture industry will keep increase
• Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1
  population moving into cities each year
• Need more job for young people and farmers, 10
  million new positions needed annually
• Infrastructure construction is far from completed

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Energy consumption and GHG emission will increase
for many years

• TPE consumption in China will be doubled or
  increase even more in the next two decades
• Per capita energy consumption will be close to
  the world average by around 2020
• Per capita GHG emission still much lower than
  that from developed countries
• Energy consumption in China remains at very low
  level compared to many other countries
• Trend of Chinas energy development is within the
  very normal range, compared to the development
  history of other countries

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Per capita emissions (t-C)
Per capita GDP (1000 US)
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Emission intensity (t-C/1000 US)
Per capita GDP (1000 US)
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Continuous efforts on sustainable development

• Efforts include activities in many fields
• Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency
• Efforts on developing energy alternatives
• Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation
• Enhance local environment protection
• Land management to promote sinks

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Energy efficiency improvement

• Promulgated Energy Conservation Law
• Developed energy conservation plans for each of
  the 5 years development plans
• Issued associated energy conservation policy and
  regulations
• Established comprehensive energy conservation
  management and service system
• Issued technical guidance for energy conservation
• Developed and enforced series of energy
  conservation standards
• Initiated national energy conservation programs

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Achievement in energy efficiency

• Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7 from 1980 to
  2000, energy consumption increased 3.9 annually
• Kept the energy consumption elasticity
  coefficient around 0.5 from 1980 to 2000,
• Energy intensity decreased more than 5 annually
  in the same period, (1.1 in average for the
  world)
• More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved

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Action in renewables

• By the end of 2000,small and mini hydro up to
  23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh
• Widely use of solar heaters all over the country
• Development of PV, especially for power supply in
  remote areas

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Future development

• The elasticity of industrial energy consumption
  can be obviously less than that of other sectors,
  especially in the energy-intensive industries
• Substantial progress could be made in optimizing
  energy mix through speeding-up the development of
  natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and full
  utilization of the international oil gas
  resources
• Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will
  promote energy efficiency improvement, reduce
  energy demand and improve energy supply security
• Environmental issue will play a more and more
  important role in Chinas future energy
  development
• The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated
  by strengthening the enforcement of sustainable
  energy strategy