Analysis of Nov 7 2006 Elections Dan Nataf, Center for the Study of Local Issues, www2.aacc.edu/csli

1
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
2
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
4
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
5
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
6
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csli
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
Ehrlich OMalley Others Didnt vote Cases
Democrats 17 79 3 6 180
Republicans 89 10 0 1 167
Unaffiliated 54 40 6 0 50
Other 83 8 0 8 12
Informed about Governor Candidates Stands on
Issues?
Informed? Percent
Very 56
Somewhat 37
Not very 7
Total 100
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
Issues by Vote for Governor Open-ended/closed-end
ed
Issue Type of Poll Type of Poll Closed-ended Closed-ended
Issue Closed Open Ehrlich OMalley
Economy 21 5 53 44
Education 18 18 43 57
Taxes 16 8 69 31
Crime 13 4 55 40
Growth 8 3 62 39
Cost of living 6 3 50 50
Slots 6 3 80 20
Healthcare 5 0 13 88
Environment 3 3 40 60
Work with legislature 3 0 25 75
College tuition 3 2 60 40
Total 100 49
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
Traits Motivating Vote for Governor (Contrast
Short and Long Forms)
Type of Survey Type of Survey Closed-ended Closed-ended
Traits Open Closed Ehrlich OMalley
Honesty, trustworthy 33 10 44 56
All others 21 0 -- --
Party 7 0 -- --
Leadership, competence, has a plan 7 22 55 45
Clear, straightforward, forthright 6 0 -- --
Generally likeable character 6 0 -- --
Persistent, consistent 5 0 -- --
Right experience 4 25 69 31
Past record 3 0 -- --
Integrity/right moral outlook 3 21 73 22
Overall beliefs 3 0 -- --
Family man 2 6 10 90
Understand the needs of others 0 12 20 75
Works well with others 0 4 14 86
Total 100 100
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
13
Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
Lower Income Higher Income
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
Vote for County Executive/County Executive by
Party (short form)
Republicans Republicans Democrats Democrats Didnt Vote Didnt Vote
Ehrlich Leopold OMalley Johnson Govr. County Exec. Cases
Democrats 17 22 79 74 6 4 180
Republicans 89 80 10 14 1 5 167
Unaffiliated 54 39 40 55 0 6 50
Other 83 42 8 42 8 17 12
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS Issues and County
Executive Vote
Issue Short Long Ave Johnson Johnson Johnson Leopold Leopold Leopold
Short Long Ave Short Long Ave
Education 8 21 15 53 43 48 47 54 52
Growth 5 8 7 70 62 66 30 39 34
Taxes 5 15 10 0 40 20 100 60 80
Govt. spending 4 2 3 38 33 35 62 67 65
Cost of living 3 10 7 50 47 49 33 53 52
Crime 2 18 10 50 47 49 50 53 52
Environment 2 8 5 100 62 81 0 38 19
Transportation 1 3 2 0 80 40 100 20 60
Economy 1 11 6 51 47 49 50 53 52
Party 30 -- 60 -- -- 40 -- --
Experience 6 -- 50 -- -- 50 -- --
Honesty 4 -- 43 -- -- 57 -- --
Anti-candidate 4 -- 43 -- -- 57 -- --
Leadership 4 -- 43 -- -- 57 -- --
Beliefs 4 -- 43 -- -- 57 -- --
Housing -- 3 -- 75 75 -- 25 25
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS Issues/Traits and
County Executive Vote
Traits and the Vote for County Executive (revised
12-2-06)
Issues and the Vote for County Executive
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS Age/Education and
County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS Influences on
County Executive Vote
Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive
by Candidate
Influence Overall Leopold Johnson Cases
The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself 13 80 20 20
Information from the Internet 13 65 30 20
Literature received in the mail 15 63 33 24
Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun 14 57 44 23
Newspaper stories about candidate 20 47 50 32
Conversations with friends or family 22 41 51 37
I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11 41 53 17
Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33 39 59 54
Paid ads in the newspapers 5 38 63 8
Candidates name from signs along major roads 5 38 50 8
Paid ads on TV 15 29 67 24
I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc. 8 27 73 11
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Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf,
Center for the Study of Local Issues,
www2.aacc.edu/csliEXIT POLLS States Attorney
and County Executive
Gap in Support for Weathersbee and Johnson by
Social and Political Variables