Work package 2 Modeling the inspection process

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Work package 2Modeling the inspection process

• Q-Detect/EPPO workshop on 19th February 2013
• Wil Hennen

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WP2 Modeling the inspection process

• Tools (output)
• Inspection Model
• mimics inspection process
• goal compare instruments evaluate inspection
  process and sampling learning
• Trap models
• 1. Pine processionary moth in forest
• 2. Thrips palmi in glass house
• Simulation model remote sensing
  monitoring

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The Inspection Model inspection process
Sampling
Queue
Queue
Queue
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Inspection Model support decision to buy
Compare detection instruments (cost-effectiveness)
Cost 100/lot Time 20 min. Detection
Quality 10 Which instrument is
prefered? when evaluating at inspection
capacity, (export)damage, loss of product
quality, inspection/laboratory costs, etc.
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Inspection Model optimalisation inspection
Evaluate the inspection process Sample
size Risk based inspection (reduced checks
pathways) Additional inspection capacity 1st
line confirmation or not
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Inspection Model case study sample size
Sample size Detec-ted False positive Inspect costs Avoided damage Storage costs
LARGE
SMALL
Sensitivity
Specificity
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Inspection Model risk based inspection
Reduced checks
Sample
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Inspection Model risk based inspection
Reduced checks
Comparison allsplit Is this
cost-effective? (?inspection costs, ?instrument
costs, ?avoided damage, ?laboratory
costs) Chance undetected in low-risk
pathway? Reduced checks allowed?
Sample
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Inspection Model learning tool for inspectors
Learn the inspection process By Game
Simulation Learn effect of sample size
(statistics) ISPM 31 (methodologies for
sampling) Distinguish more pathways (risk
based) Implementing instruments (where, which)
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The Inspection Model demo (animation)
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Inspection Model remarks on application

• Complex model requires training (concepts,
  methods)
• Is not a detection instrument! (not for
  inspectors)
• Intended for NPPOs
• - decision to buy/apply instrument
• - optimising inspection process
• - training inspection concepts in workshops
• Trap Models less complex, not intended for
  inspectors

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Trap Model for thrips palmi

• Questions
• Identify the best location for the traps (low
  insect density)
• Simulate and compare different trap efficiency
  (and lures)
• Reduce chemicals (investigate use of traps as
  alternative)

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Trap Model concepts
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Trap Model for thrips palmi

• Demonstration
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips
  .html

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Trap Model for pine processionary moth

• Goals
• Probability to catch by trapping
• Number of traps for cost-effective (sampling)
• (Economic) effects of different positions
• Sensitivity of the trapping instrument

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Trap Model for pine processionary moth

• Demonstration
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessiona
  ryMoth.html

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Remote Sensing monitoring

• Detection of pest from satellite
• Goal
• Detection efficiency of disease by satellite
  remote sensing techniques

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Remote Sensing monitoring
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Remote Sensing monitoring
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Remote Sensing monitoring

• Demonstration
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.h
  tml

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More information...

• Wednesday 20th February
• Possibility of further exploration of modeling
  the inspection process
• Options
• Play around with Trap Models and Remote Sensing
  model
• Background information models, concepts and
  methods
• Applications (case studies) of the Inspection
  Model

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End of presentation

• Any questions......?

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WP2 Modeling the inspection process

• Aims
• Integration by modeling the inspection process
• Compare the costs and benefits of detection
  methods/instruments
• Explore allocation of resources for a method in
  an optimal way regarding cost-effectiveness
• Simulating sampling procedures (e.g. reduced
  checks) while maintaining acceptable levels of
  risk (ISPM based)
• Support search of best location of traps and
  compare trap efficiency

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Inspection Models demonstration

• Trap model for thrips palmi
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips
  .html
• Trap Model for pine processionary moth
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessiona
  ryMoth.html
• Remote Sensing monitoring
• http//www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.h
  tml