DON

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DONT PANIC!Crowd behaviour in emergencies

• Dr Chris Cocking
• University of Sussex
• cpc20_at_sussex.ac.uk
• 6/9/2005

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Outline of Presentation

• 1) Background and aims of research
• 2) Examples of how behaviour in emergencies
  support our theories
• 3) How this may be useful in managing future
  crowd evacuations
• 4) brief demonstration of VR programme
• 5) Any questions/ points for discussion

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Context of research

• Crowd behaviour theories have developed over time
• 19th Century- Le Bon irrationalist approach
• 1960s - 70s more rationalist approach
• From 1980s to present- crowd behaviour
  increasingly seen as governed by social norms-
  beyond rational or irrational as this is a matter
  of interpretation -The Social Identity Model

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The Panic model

• Part of the irrationalist tradition in crowd
  psychology
• Reproduces dominant image
• a)Threat causes emotion to overwhelm reason
• b) Collective identity breaks down
• c) Selfish behaviours- pushing trampling etc
• d) Contagion-these behaviours spread easily to
  crowd as a whole

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Scope of research project

• 3 year project funded by ESRC since April 2004 to
  see if existing psychological models of crowd
  behaviour can be applied to emergencies
• Taking a critical look at the panic model
• 3 different areas of research interviews, room
  evacuations, and VR simulations

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Research into 7th July

• Gathering data from Press reports and web-logs
• Web- based questionnaire study for eye-witnesses
  of bombings http//www.cs.nott.ac.uk/dzs/londonb
  omb/index.htm
• Interview studies to come
• Results so far support our theories

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7th July terrorist attacks

• Rough chronology of events on the tube
• 1) Blast followed by darkness and silence
• 2) Screams of fear and distress- passengers try
  to find out whats going on
• 3) Smoke soot clear- attempts to help/ comfort
  others, escape- some delay because of fear that
  tracks are live
• 4) Passengers wait approx 30 mins. for rescue,
  and walk in orderly fashion along tracks when
  directed

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7th July terrorist attacks

• Individual fear and distress, but no mass panic
• Evacuations characterised by orderly, calm
  behaviour
• Many reports of altruism, co-operation, and
  collective spirit of Londoners/ UK as a whole

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Why no Mass Panic?

• 1) British Bulldog spirit meant we were used to
  it or even expecting it ?
• 2) Information withheld?
• 3) Mass Panic is extremely rare anyway? Only when
  chance to behave co-operatively has gone

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The myth of Panic

• Many accounts of panic
• But what actually is panic, and what is logical
  flight behaviour?
• Need to look at what people actually do, and
  decide if it is indeed panic
• More than just semantics, as it could affect
  emergency evacuation planning

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Panic?

• 1)There was no real panic - just an overwhelming
  sense to get out of the station quickly
• 2) almost straight away our packed carriage
  started to fill with smoke, and people panicked
  immediately. Thankfully there were some
  level-headed people on the carriage who managed
  to calm everyone down

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Unity

• I felt there was a real sense of unity. We were
  all trying our best to find a way out of there
  and reassure each other.
• One of the things which struck me about this
  experience is that one minute you are standing
  around strangers and the next minute they become
  the closest and most important people in your
  life. That feeling was quite extraordinary

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Co-operative behaviour

• 1)Many people kept calm and tried to help one
  another to see if anyone was injured
• 2)I was very aware of people helping each other
  out and I was being helped myself
• 3) Passengers with medical experience were
  found, I found a tool box and we smashed a
  window, allowing the medical guys to enter the
  other train

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Orderly evacuation?

• Everyone was pretty calm and no-one made a rush
  for the doors in a panicked fashion
• About 20 minutes later the message came through
  that those who could walk should move to the
  front of the train and disembark and walk down
  the track. after a short distance we were
  stopped and told that a person had been blown out
  of the train against the tunnel wall and could
  not be moved as he was critical

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Since July 7th

• 21st July attempted bombings
• 22nd July Stockwell shooting
• 3rd August smoking bus evacuation
• On each occasion more urgency and distress
  reported
• Some reports of pushing/ stampeding
• But is this mass panic?

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Definite urgency to evacuate

• 1) Some people left behind their shoes and their
  bags of shopping.
• 2) The door to the next carriage burst open and
  dozens of people rushed in. Some were falling

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But is this mass panic?

• Some people were panicking and screaming. People
  still did not know what was going on, some people
  did try to get on to the train on the opposite
  platform. Some people tried to stand around
  asking and some people just tried to find their
  way out

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Co-operation

• The guy just ran and started running up the
  escalator everyone was screaming to stop him

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Stockwell shooting 22/7/05

• Lots of people at the other end started shouting
  "Get off! Get off!" and running down the platform
  away from the train. I heard 5 gun shots,
  although did not see anything as I was running
  away from the train trying to find an exit. We
  all followed each other and reached a dead end on
  the Victoria line platform, everyone was very
  frightened and didn't know where to go

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Panic as passengers leap from smoking bus
Guardian 3/8/05

• Mechanical failure on bus causes fire but no bomb
• 6 injured as people jump out of emergency exit, 4
  metres up
• passengers were streaming out of the top window,
  dropping down and piling on each other, getting
  as far away as possible

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Baghdad stampede 31/8/05
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Baghdad stampede- incompetence or conspiracy?

• Panic to flee suspected suicide bomber?
• Mismanagement of large crowd in confined area?

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Possible applications of my work

• 1) More information rather than less
• Very little evidence supports idea that people
  will panic if they know severity of the situation
• If information is given in clear ways that people
  can safely act upon to escape threat, they
  usually do
• Consequently, deliberately withholding info could
  cause problems in any future emergencies, as
  people may not trust accuracy of messages

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Possible applications of my work

• 2) How this information is relayed and by whom
  affects whether it is believed and acted upon
• Information needs to be clear and unambiguous,
  and come from believable source that crowd
  identifies with
• This could depend on type of crowd e.g.
  commuters, football fans

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Possible applications of my work

• 3) Appealing to the crowds collective identity/
  common humanity
• Having a common fate can encourage co-operative
  behaviour- were all in this together
• Sir Ian Blair-communities defeat terrorism
• Having out-groups can strengthen in-group
  identity, but is a double-edged sword

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Can you help with the research?

• 1) Visit web-site?
• 2) Access to CCTV footage?
• 3) Interested in developing VR programme as a
  training tool?

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Summary

• 1) Crowds in emergencies behave in ways that are
  consistent with their social identities and
  governed by the social norms of the situation
• 2) The panic model is largely a myth
• 3)Evidence gathered from July 7th attacks
  supports our theories

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VR evacuation programme

• Joint project with computing scientists at
  University of Nottingham who are experienced in
  emergency simulations
• We are currently asking potential users what they
  would like to see it do with a view to marketing
  it as a training tool