WAR

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WAR

• Bradford VTS
• Group A presentation
• 9th January 2007

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Program

• 2 pm Introduction
• 2.15 pm What is War?
• 2.45 pm Images of War and Impact on Health
• 3.15 pm Break
• 3.30 pm group case discussion
• 4.15 pm wrap up evaluation

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Aims Objectives

• What kind of wars are there?
• What is war?
• Why wars?
• Where is war at the moment?
• Is the world getting a better place?

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What kind of wars are there?

• can be divided into cause and environment

• Cause
• Extortionate
• Agressive
• Colonial
• National liberation
• Religious
• Dynastic
• Trade
• Revolutionary
• Guerrilla
• Civil

• Environment
• Arctic warfare
• Desert warfare
• Jungle warfare
• Mobile warfare
• Naval warfare
• Sub-aquatic warfare
• Mountain warfare
• Urban warfare
• Air warfare
• Space warfare
• Electronic warfare
• Border warfare
• Mine warfare

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What is war?

• War
• A state of open, armed, often prolonged conflict
  carried on between nations, states, or parties,
• the period of such conflict and the techniques
  and procedures of war.
• (Encyclopedia britannica)
• Armed conflict
• An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility
  which concerns government and/or territory where
  the use of armed force between two parties, of
  which at least one is the government of a state,
  results in at least 25 battle-related deaths.
• (Armed Conflict 19892000, Journal of Peace
  Research 38(5) 629644)

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Why war?

• Unlimited amount of theories trying to explain
  this
• Whatever you think, war seems to be a successful
  way of dealing with conflict
• Ask one of these guys...

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(No Transcript)
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Historical theories

• A. J. P. Taylor
• Wars are like traffic accidents
• There are some conditions and situations that
  make them more likely, but there can be no system
  for predicting where and when each one will
  occur.

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Psychological theories

• John Bowlby
• Human beings, especially men, are inherently
  violent. While this violence is repressed in
  normal society, it needs the occasional outlet
  provided by war.
• Sigmund Freud
• Peace does not really exist. Periods that are
  seen as peaceful are actually periods of
  preparation for a later war or when war is
  suppressed by a state of great power, such as the
  Pax Britannica.

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Psychological theories

• Konrad Lorenz
• War as an extension of animal behaviour, such as
  territoriality and competition. However, while
  war has a natural cause, the development of
  technology has accelerated human destructiveness
  to a level that is irrational and damaging to the
  species. We have similar instincts to that of a
  chimpanzee but overwhelmingly more power.
• George Orwell
• The state of constant war is being used as one of
  many ways to distract people. War inspires fear
  and hate among the people of a nation, and gives
  them a "legitimate" enemy upon whom they can
  focus this fear and hate. Thus the people are
  prevented from seeing that their true enemy is in
  fact their own repressive government. By this
  theory war is another opiate of the masses" by
  which a state controls its people and prevents
  revolution.

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Anthropological theories

• Ashley Montagu
• There are no links between various forms of
  violence. Almost all wars are begun not by
  popular pressure but by the whims of leaders.
  These leaders also work to maintain a system of
  ideological justifications for war.

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Sociological theories

• Hans-Ulrich Wehler
• War as the product of domestic conditions, with
  only the target of aggression being determined by
  international realities.
• Carl von Clausewitz
• Decisions of statesmen and the geopolitical
  situation that leads to war.

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Demographic therories

• Thomas Malthus
• Wars are caused by expanding populations and
  limited resources. Populations always increase
  until they are limited by war, disease, or
  famine.

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Demographic theories

• Jack Goldstone
• Youth bulge dominates US foreign policy.
• Gunnar Heinsohn
• Proposed the theory in its most generalized form,
  a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the
  males of a nation belong to the "fighting age"
  cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age.
• It will follow periods with average birth rates
  as high as 4-8 children per woman with a 15-29
  year delay. If an average birth rate of 2,1
  represents a situation of in which the son will
  replace the father, the daughter the mother, 4-8
  children per mother imply 2-4 sons. Consequently,
  one father has to leave not 1, but 2 to 4 social
  positions to give all his sons a perspective for
  life, which is usually hard to achieve. Since
  respectable positions cannot be increased at the
  same speed as food, textbooks and vaccines, many
  "angry young men" find themselves in a situation
  that tends to escalate their adolescent anger
  into violence.

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Demographic theories

• These young man are
• (1) demographically superfluous,(2) might be out
  of work or stuck in a mean job, and(3) often
  have no access to a legal sex life before a
  career can earn them enough to provide for a
  family.
• The combination of these stress factors according
  to Heinsohn usually heads for six different
  exits
• (1) Emigration ("non violent colonization")(2)
  Violent Crime(3) Rebellion or putsch(4) Civil
  war and/or revolution(5) Genocide (to take over
  the positions of the slaughtered)(6) Conquest
  (violent colonization, frequently including
  genocide abroad).
• Religions and ideologies are seen as secondary
  factors that are being used to legitimate
  violence, but will not lead to violence by itself
  if no youth bulge is present. Consequently, youth
  bulge theorists see both past "Christianist"
  european colonialism / imperialism and todays
  "Islamist" civil unrest / terrorism as results of
  high birth rates producing youth bulges.
• Youth Bulge theory has been subjected to
  statistical analysis by the World Bank. It has
  been criticized for promoting racial, gender and
  age discrimination.

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Rationalist theories

• Geoffrey Blainey
• Both sides to a potential war are rational, which
  is to say that each side wants to get the best
  possible outcome for itself for the least
  possible loss of life and property to its own
  side.

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Economic theories

• War can be seen as an outgrowth of economic
  competition in a chaotic and competitive
  international system. In this view wars begin as
  a pursuit of new markets, of natural resources,
  and of wealth.

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Marxist theories

• War grows out of the class war. It sees wars as
  imperial ventures to enhance the power of the
  ruling class and divide the proletariat of the
  world by pitting them against each other for
  contrived ideals such as nationalism or religion.
  Wars are a natural outgrowth of the free market
  and class system, and will not disappear until a
  world revolution occurs.

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Political science theories

• Immanuel Kant
• Power transition theory - distributes the world
  into a hierarchy and explains major wars as part
  of a cycle of hegemons being destabilized by a
  great power which does not suppor the hegemons
  control.
• Democratic peace theory
• theory and related empirical research in
  international relations, political science, and
  philosophy which holds that democracies never or
  almost never go to war with one another.

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Democratic states
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Any thoughts?
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Refugees some numbers
ORIGIN OF MAJOR REFUGEE POPULATIONS 1 JAN 2006Ten largest groups ORIGIN OF MAJOR REFUGEE POPULATIONS 1 JAN 2006Ten largest groups ORIGIN OF MAJOR REFUGEE POPULATIONS 1 JAN 2006Ten largest groups
Origin Main Countries of Asylum Total1
Afghanistan Pakistan / Iran / Germany / Netherlands / UK 1,908,1002
Sudan Chad / Uganda / Kenya / Ethiopia / Central African Rep. 693,300
Burundi Tanzania / DR Congo / Rwanda / South Africa / Zambia 438,700
DR Congo Tanzania / Zambia / Congo / Rwanda / Uganda 430,600
Somalia Kenya / Yemen / UK / USA / Ethiopia 394,800
Viet Nam China / Germany / USA / France / Switzerland 358,200
Palestinians Saudi Arabia / Egypt / Iraq / Libya / Algeria 349,7003
Iraq Iran / Germany / Netherlands / Syria / UK 262,100
Azerbaijan Armenia / Germany / USA / Netherlands / France 233,700
Liberia Sierra Leone / Guinea / Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana / USA 231,100

• UNHCR dropping numbers of refugees worldwide.
• 1993 17.8 million, 2006 8.4 million

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Refugees some more numbers
MAJOR REFUGEE ARRIVALS DURING 2005Ten largest movements MAJOR REFUGEE ARRIVALS DURING 2005Ten largest movements MAJOR REFUGEE ARRIVALS DURING 2005Ten largest movements
Origin Main Countries of Asylum Total
Togo Benin / Ghana 39,100
Sudan Chad / Uganda 34,500
DR Congo Uganda / Rwanda / Burundi 15,600
Somalia Yemen 13,600
Central African Rep. Chad 11,500
Iraq Syria 10,500
Burundi Rwanda / Tanzania / Uganda 6,100
Bhutan Nepal 1,500
Rwanda Uganda 1,500
Russian Federation Azerbaijan 500
UNHCR 2006
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Asylum seekers some numbers
NEW ASYLUM APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN SELECTED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES 1in 2005 NEW ASYLUM APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN SELECTED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES 1in 2005 NEW ASYLUM APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN SELECTED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES 1in 2005
Country of Asylum Asylum applications Main Countries of Origin
France 49,700 Haiti / Serbia Montenegro / Turkey / Russian Fed. / DR Congo
United States2 39,200 China / Haiti / Colombia / El Salvador / Mexico
United Kingdom 30,500 Iran / Pakistan / Somalia / Eritrea / Afghanistan
Germany 28,900 Serbia Montenegro / Turkey / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Viet Nam
Austria 22,500 Serbia Montenegro / Russian Fed. / India / Moldova / Turkey
Canada 20,800 Mexico / China / Colombia / Sri Lanka / India
Sweden 17,500 Serbia Montenegro / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Stateless people / Bulgaria
Belgium 16,000 Russian Fed. / DR Congo / Serbia Montenegro / Iraq / Slovakia
Netherlands 12,300 Iraq / Somalia / Afghanistan / Iran / Burundi
Switzerland 10,100 Serbia Montenegro / Turkey / Somalia / Iraq / Bulgaria

• UNHCR 2006

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Long term picture

• Asylum applications in 36 industrialised countries

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Asylum applicants 2000 - 2004
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Asylum applicants 2001 - 2004
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Countries of Origin 2003 - 2004
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Countries of Origin (UK) 2003 - 2004
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Where is war?
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Types of conflict
32
War or Conflict
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Types of Conflicts
34
Parties
35
Intesity
36
Secondary Support
37
Conflict zones
38
Democratic states
39
Incompatibility
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Is the world getting better or worse?

• Depends whom you ask
• Uppsala says yes
• Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict
  Research says no
• Center for Strategic International Studies
  (MIT) says dont know
• UNHCR hopes it gets better.
• Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich,
  pretends to know but will not tell you if you do
  not pay...
• ... so I guess you have to make up your own mind.