A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry

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A Development Perspective of Impacts and
Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and
Industry

• Manmohan Kapshe
• Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology,
  Bhopal, India

Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change From Practice to Policy 11-12
May 2006, Hotel Metropolitan Nikko, New Delhi
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Presentation Agenda

• Present Status
• National Level Integrated Assessment
• Impacts and Adaptation Strategies
• Development and Climate Change
• Managing Transitions
• Conclusions

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Present Status

• Sectoral studies
• Few impact studies
• Very few adaptation studies
• Regional diversity and Geographical differences
• Limited economic indicators of damages and costs

4
Limitations of Approaches

• Limited capability to characterize and
  parameterize long term interactions between the
  economy, society, and environment
• Most of the assumptions are derived from
  developed world perspective
• Inability to characterize discontinuities and
  extreme events
• Weak behavioral interfaces
• Distance between analysts and policy makers

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National Level Integrated Framework
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Analytical Framework
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A Case of Konkan Railway
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Konkan Railway Impacts and Adaptation

• Presently 20 of repair and maintenance expenses
  on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to
  climatic reasons.
• An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in
  over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide.
  Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible
  speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75
  Km/h.
• Identification of the vulnerable spots and
  installation of Raksha Dhaga. Present
  vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown
  on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that
  such events are likely to occur more frequently
  and with higher intensity.
• Adaptation measures should also consider non
  technological measures

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Climate Change Impact on Energy

• Capacity for additional demand 13 GW in 2100,
  i.e. 1.5 of reference case
• Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100
• Energy and electricity demand rise from building,
  irrigation and transport
• Energy mix is unaltered.

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Climate Change Impact on Emissions

• In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5
  million ton, i.e. 1 rise over reference case
• Emissions increase in power and transport sectors
• Cumulative increase 710 MT

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Uncertainty in Socio-economic Factors

• Population growth
• Fast changing fertility and mortality rates
  across the region.
• Migrations resulting from natural disasters like
  cyclones, floods and droughts.
• Urbanization
• High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on
  existing infrastructure.
• Change in energy resource use pattern
• Economic and social development
• Level of economic and social development varies
  across the region.

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Special Characteristics of Settlements, Energy
and Industry

• Impact are more directly associated with climatic
  extremes rather than averages.
• Possibility of abrupt climate changes not
  anticipated by normal response planning
• Substantively different for relatively developed,
  industrialized regions vs. less developed
  regions.
• Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of
  higher economic damages in developed /
  industrialized areas but higher human damages in
  less-developed areas.

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Adaptation Strategies

• Facilities and linkages against extreme
  weather-related events
• Contingency planning (such as stockpiling)
• Changes in financial mechanisms to increase
  resiliency
• Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning
• Relocation and industrial restructuring
• Planning for likely increase in energy demands
• Adaptation by industry will be associated with
  marginal adjustments to changes in climatic
  parameters
• Attention to the security of transportation and
  other linkage infrastructures
• Risk financing and risk mitigation

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Development and Climate The Perspective

• Conventional perspective
• Development is a threat to climate
• Climate change a barrier to development
• Development and Climate perspective
• Pathways that achieve national development goals
  are climate-friendly
• Development is the driving force for addressing
  climate change challenges

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Development and ClimateThe Paradigm

• Climate policies and actions to be driven by
• national development targets
• agreed goals under extant international
  agreements
• Expanding development and climate frontier
  though
• Innovations (technology, institutions)
• regional cooperation
• targeted technology and investment flows
• aligning stakeholder interests

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Managing Transitions

• Socio-Economic
• Demographic Urban / Rural, Gender ratio,
  Migration
• Life Styles
• Development Indicators
• Income, Equity, Literacy, Health
• Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances
• Political
• Institutions
• Laws
• Policies

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Managing Transitions

• Energy Resource
• Supply Side
• Fossil Futures Conventional Coal/Gas/ Oil,
  Unconventional Oil/ Gas
• Renewable Energy Bio-technology, Solar
• Large Hydro Multi-purpose schemes
• Nuclear Fission with zero waste, Fusion
• Demand side
• Efficient Appliances
• Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport)
• Advance Technologies Fuel-cell, Storage,
  Hydrogen, economy, Bio-engineering

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Managing Transitions

• Technology
• Logistics Pipelines
• Electricity TD Decentralized utilities
• Information Wireless
• Nanotechnology
• Consumption Life-style
• Conservation Substitutions, Recycling
• City Planning, Architecture/ Building Codes
• Sustainable Habits / Tradition

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Managing Transitions

• Environment
• Awareness Pressure groups
• Income-effects e.g. Kuznets phenomenon
• Laws and Regulations Global agreements, National
  policies
• Technology Zero-effluent Processes, Recycling

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Key Issues

• Contribution of development to mitigation
• Linkages of impacts and adaptation across sectors
• Impact of mitigation on energy system, e.g. coal
• Co-benefits of different emission mitigation
  pathways
• Water-energy-food nexus for adaptation
• Role of development policies to enhance adaptive
  capacities
• Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation
• Needs for risk and uncertainty assessment
• Role of Technologies
• Role of Economic instruments (insurance) From
  non climate to climate focus, eg. Crop insurance
• Institutional mechanism (communities, civil
  society, governments) in adaptation

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Conclusions

• Identification of critical needs for policy
  formulation in local context
• Customization for local legal and policy
  frameworks
• Level of exposure to climate change impacts
• More studies needed on economic indicators of
  damages and costs
• Development of an analysis framework to work as
  broad guideline with flexibility to accommodate
  situation specific changes
• Development of community response mechanism
• Internalization of adaptation approaches in
  development processes for effective implementation

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Thank You.