Global Warming and Japan

1
Global Warming and Japans Energy Conservation
Policy

• SHIGETOMI Norio
• Project Coordinator
• Global Environment Technology Development Dept.
• NEW ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPOMENT
  ORGANIZATION (NEDO)

2
GHG Emissions Trend and Kyoto Target in Japan
1,332
Base year (1,233)
74
-6(1,159)
Mt (CO2 equivalent)
Base year
Fiscal year
2000
1990
June 2002 Japans ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol GHG emissions reduction target 6
below 1990 levels GHG emissions as of 2000 8
above 1990 levels
3
Current Status of Global GHG Emissions
Japan
Source Ministry of the Environment (2000)
4
Changes in Japans CO2 Emissions by Sector
Amount of energy-derived CO2 emissions accounts
for 93.4 of total emissions amount in 2000.
Industry 495 MtCO2 (0.9 increase from
1990) Transportation 256 MtCO2 (20.6
increase from 1990) Business/Home 318 MtCO2
(21.3 increase from 1990) Fuel conversion 86
MtCO2 (11.4 increase from 1990) ltRef.
Non-energy derived CO2 emissionsgt Industrial
process 53 MtCO2 (6.1 decrease from
1990) Wastes (plastic and waste oil disposal) 24
MtCO2 (57.5 increase from 1990)
Emissions (MtCO2)
Source Ministry of the Environment
5
Global Warming Policy in Japan
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1994
2002
Japans ratification of Kyoto Protocol
UNFCCC
Kyoto Protocol
Outline of Global Warming Prevention
Revised
Basic policy
Climate Change Policy Law
Revised
1979 Energy Conservation Law
Revised
Revised
Individual policy
Law concerning Promotion of the Use of New Energy
RPS
Global Warming Prevention Initiative
RD policy
Actions by industry
Keidanrens voluntary action plans
6
Current Status of GHG Emissions in Japan
Unit MtCO2
1332
Reduction of energy-derived CO2 emissions
8
1233
14
Further reduction by additional GHG emissions
reduction measures
6
1159
1990
2000
2010
Base year
Current
First commitment
Source Ministry of the Environment
7
Strategies for the Kyoto Target 6 GHG
Emissions Reduction
0.0 Energy-derived CO2 emissions reduction -Energy conservation, New energy, Fuel conversion, etc.
-2.0 -Development of innovative technologies -Further reduction efforts by citizens
-0.5 Countermeasures that reduce non energy-derived CO2, CH4, and N2O
-3.9 Removals by land use, the forestry sector and sinks
2.0 Emissions reduction of alternative CFCs (HFC, PFC, SF6)
-1.6 Utilization of the Kyoto Mechanisms


Note Decrease/increase from 1990.
Source Outline of Global Warming Prevention
(March 2002)
8
Japans Measures to Decrease Energy-derived CO2
Emissions to 1990 Levels
Emissions by existing measures defined in the
former Outline of Global Warming Prevention
Approx. 1,126 MtCO2
Reductions measures for energy-derived CO2
emissions
1250
1200
2000 1,155 MtCO2
Reduction by additional measures Approx. 74
MtCO2
1150
Energy-derived CO2 emissions
1100
1050
1000
2000
1990 1,053 MtCO2
Target in 2010 1,053 MtCO2
Additional emissions reduction measures Amount of reduction
1. Energy conservation 22 MtCO2
2. New energy 34 MtCO2
3. Fuel conversion, etc 18 MtCO2
Total 74 MtCO2
Sources Ministry of the Environment, Outline of
Global Warming Prevention (March 2002), etc.
9
Energy-derived CO2 Emissions per GDP in Major
Developed Countries
Source National Inventory, IPCC Secretariat
10
Comparison of per capita CO2 Emissions

• Given its low per capita CO2 emission level,
  Japan has already achieved the highest level of
  energy efficiency.

Source National Inventory
11
Comparison of CO2 Emissions Reduction Cost

• The marginal reduction cost is higher in Japan
  than in the EU
• and USA.

Cost estimation for target reduction (IPCC Third
Assessment Report)
1074
1000
966
Marginal reduction cost (US )
800
600
Approx. 400
410
400
Approx. 300
Approx. 200
97
200
20
76
0
Japan
EU
USA
Note The arrow indicate the range of various
cost estimation results.
12
Additional Emissions Reduction Measures 1.
Energy Conservation
Unit kl, crude oil equivalent
Sectors Measures Conservation
Industry High performance industrial furnace (in medium and small companies) 400,000
Business/Home -Expansion of the list of top-runner equipment -Accelerated dissemination of high efficiency equipment -Reduction of standby power -Dissemination of Home Energy Management System -Dissemination of Building Energy Management System Subtotal 1,200,000 500,000 400,000 900,000 1,600,000 4,600,000
Trans-portation -Accelerated dissemination of energy efficient automobiles that satisfies the top-runner standard -Facilitation of automobile diversification (hybrid, etc.) Subtotal 500,000 500,000 1,000,000
Cross-cutting -High performance boilers -High performance laser -High efficient lighting products Subtotal 400,000 100,000 500,000 1,000,000
Total Total 7,000,000
Source Outline of Global Warming Prevention
(March 2002)
13
Additional Emissions Reduction Measures 2.
Target of New Energy Utilization -1 (July 2001)
Unit kl, crude oil equivalent
1. New energy on the supply-side
1999 Target in 2010 Increase from 1999 to 2010 (Approx.)
ltPower generationgt ltPower generationgt ltPower generationgt ltPower generationgt
Photovoltaic 53, 000 1.18 mil. 23-fold
Wind power 35, 000 1.34 mil. 38-fold
Waste power 1.15 mil. 5.52 mil. 5-fold
Biomass 54, 000 340,000 6-fold
ltThermal utilizationgt ltThermal utilizationgt ltThermal utilizationgt ltThermal utilizationgt
Solar thermal 980, 000 4.39 mil. 4-fold
Unused energy (including cryogenic power) 41, 000 580,000 14-fold
Waste thermal 44, 000 140,000 3-fold
Biomass thermal -- 670,000 --
Black liquor, waste material 4.57 mil. 4.59 mi. 1.1-fold
Total (Percentage in primary energy supply) 6.93 mil. (1.2) 19.1 mil. (approx.3) 3-fold
Source Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources (July 2001)
14
Additional Emissions Reduction Measures 2.
Target of New Energy Utilization -2 (July 2001)
2. Renewable energy
Unit million kl, crude oil equivalent
1999 Target in 2010 Increase from 1999 to 2010 (Approx.)
Total supply of new energy 7 19 2.7-fold
Hydropower 21 20 1-fold
Geothermal 1 1 1-fold
Total supply of renewables (Percentage in primary energy supply) 29 (4.9) 40 (7) 1.4-fold
Total primary energy supply 593 602
3. New energy on demand-side
1999 Target in 2010 Increase from 1999 (Approx.)
Clean energy automobiles 65,000 3.48 million 53.5-fold
Natural gas cogeneration 1.51 million kw 4.64 million kw 3.1-fold
Fuel cells 12,000 kw 2.20 million kw 183-fold
Source Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources (July 2001)
15
Additional Emissions Reduction Measures 3. Fuel
Conversion, etc.
Supportive activities for facilitation of fuel conversion To provide subsidies to fuel conversion projects such as -Conversion of coal fired power plant to natural gas power plant -Conversion of energy-intensive facility to natural gas facility
Improvement of enabling environment -Establishment of relevant safety standards for natural gas pipelines -Low-interest loans to natural gas development projects in Japan (development wells, connection pipelines, etc.)
Emissions reduction target 18 MtCO2
Source Outline of Global Warming Prevention
(March 2002)
16
NEDOs Technology Development Activities in New
Energy and Energy Conservation

• Photovoltaic and wind power generation
• Silicon membranes, fuel cells using chemical
  compound
• Fuel cells and hydrogen power generation
• Solid polymer membranes, production/transportati
  on/storage supply of hydrogen
• Biomass energy
• Clean coal technology
• High performance industrial furnaces, reduction
  of standby power, automobiles using high
  efficiency clean energy, etc.

17
NEDOs Supportive Activities for Dissemination of
New Energy and Energy Conservation Technology

• To introduce new technologies to end users
  experimentally, and to demonstrate the
  effectiveness of such technologies, in order to
  establish a basis for full-scale introduction and
  dissemination
• Ex Photovoltaics, wind power generation,
  biomass power generation, etc.

Field test projects for experimental
introduction

• To provide subsidies as a part of project budget
  for full-scale introduction in order to
  accelerate the dissemination
• Ex Clean energy automobiles, photovoltaics,
  wind power generation, high performance
  industrial furnaces, high efficiency hot water
  supply, cogeneration, etc.

Grant projects for full-scale introduction
Cooperative projects for development of
introduction plans
-To cooperate with local authorities for the
purpose of developing technology introduction
plans -To seek smooth introduction and
dissemination through advisory activities at
plants
18
Example of New Energy Utilization Wind Power
Generation
-Large-scale wind power plant in Tomakomai,
Hokkaido -Duration FY 1999 to 2000 -NEDO grant
1/3 of total project budget -Capacity
30,600kw (1,650 kw x 14 units, 1,500 kw x 5 units)

19
Example of New Energy Utilization Photovoltaics
-Photovoltaic field test project (World Trade
Center in Tokyo, Japan) -Duration FY 2000 -NEDO
grant ½ of total project budget -Capacity 80 kw
20
Example of Energy Conservation Technology
Introduction High Performance Industrial
Furnaces
Industrial furnace energy consumption share of
total industrial energy consumption

• Investment and energy conservation
• (heating furnaces)
• NEDO grant 1/3 of total project budget

Industrial furnaces
40
Others
21
CO2 Sequestration Projects in Japan
From 2000 (RITE) Nagaoka-shi, Niigata Prefecture
Sequestration in an aquifer
From 1997 (NEDO, RITE) Joint project by Japan,
US, Canada and Norway
From 2002 (KANSO, J-COAL) Sequestration in a coal
bed
Ocean sequestration
CO2
CH4
Contribution to IPCC Special Report


CH
4
CH
4
CO
2
Coal bed
Substitution
CO2 fixation
22
NEDOs International Cooperation Program

• Purpose Implementation of model projects that
  transfer and disseminate effective energy
  conservation and new energy technologies in Japan

Budget in FY2002 Total JPY 20
billion Energy conservation model projects
(including fundamental research projects)
JPY 14 billion Coal model projects
JPY 2
billion International cooperative projects for
photovoltaic demonstration JPY 1
billion International joint research projects
JPY 3 billion
23
NEDOs Model Project -1

• Purpose
• To introduce Japans energy conservation
  technology to developing countries.
• Budget (FY 2002) JPY 14 billion
• Projects

Country Completed On-going
China Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Myanmar India Kazakhstan 16 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 1
Total 23 8
24
NEDOs Model Project -2 On-going projects and
completed projects by sector
On-going Fertilizer 1
On-going Paper 1
On-going Cement 1 1
On-going Power Generation 1 1
On-going Oil Refining 1 1
Country Country China Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia India Myanmar Kazakhstan
Completed Steel 9 1
Completed Paper 1 1
Completed Cement 1 1 1
Completed Power generation 2 1
Completed Oil Refining 1
Completed Chemical 2
Completed Wastes 1 1
25
Fundamental Research Project for the Promotion
of JI/CDM
Feasibility study for the purpose of exploring
JI/CDM projects that introduce Japanese energy
conservation and fuel conversion technologies
183 projects have been carried out in 38
countries by 2001.
FY1998-FY2001
June 2002 NEDOs first obtaining of CO2 credit
utilizing the Kyoto mechanism resulted from a
project in Kazakhstan
26
CTI Workshop in Japan
-Four workshops have been held in Japan since
1998 -Workshop theme Introduction of laws and
policies relating to global warming prevention
and energy conservation technologies (including
plant visits) -Total number of participants by
2001 58
Government/Industry
1998 1999 2000 2001 Total
China 1 / 1 2 / 1 2 / 1 3 / 0 11
Indonesia 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 2 / 1 12
Malaysia 1 / 2 2 / 1 -- -- 6
Philippine 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 1 11
Thailand 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 12
Vietnam -- -- 2 / 1 2 / 1 6
Total 5 / 9 14 7 / 8 15 7 / 8 15 9 / 5 14 28 / 30 58
27
CTI Workshop Overseas
Country Purposes Results
2001 China Thailand Malaysia -Target Participants in CTI workshops in Japan. -To research the results of CTI workshops in Japan (What activities have been done by workshop participants, and what kinds of results have been achieved so far in each country). -Information exchange for future activities. -Participants have been implementing recommendation activities in each country. -Importance of workshop as an effective way of capacity building is recognized.
2002 Indonesia Vietnam -Target Participants in CTI workshops in Japan. -To research the results of CTI workshops in Japan (What activities have been done by workshop participants, and what kinds of results have been achieved so far in each country). -Information exchange for future activities.
2003 Philippine -Target Participants in CTI workshops in Japan. -To research the results of CTI workshops in Japan (What activities have been done by workshop participants, and what kinds of results have been achieved so far in each country). -Information exchange for future activities.
28
CTI/Industry Joint Seminar on Technology
Diffusion Series
BEIJING ( May 1998 )
WARSAW ( May 2000 )
( Sep 2002 )
BRASTISLAVA ( July 1999 )
MADRID ( May 1999 )
CEBU ( Jan 2000 )
SAN SALVADOR ( Mar 2000 )
VICTORIA FALLS ( Mar 1999 )
29
Summary

• Short-term target Development, introduction, and
  dissemination of energy conservation and new
  energy technologies will be pursued in Japan to
  achieve the Kyoto target.
• Mid- to long-term target Development of
  innovative technologies such as CO2 sequestration
  technology will be carried out.
• Global activities, in which the US and developing
  countries participate, are important.

To achieve desirable and balanced 3E (energy
saving, environmental protection, economic
development), in order to develop a sustainable
economic society with environmental consideration.
30
Technology Needs in China for GHG Emissions
Reduction -1
GHGs Mitigation Options GHGs Mitigation Options GHGs Mitigation Options CTIP NSS ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Thermal power generation New installation, large-scale unit/Replacement and renovation, medium and low pressure unit/Comprehensive renovation of existing large-scale unit/Increase of cogeneration unit ?
Energy supply Conventional energy PFBC power generation ?
Energy supply Conventional energy CFBC ? ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Natural gas combined cycle power generation ?
Energy supply Conventional energy IGCC ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Coal-fired super-critical power generation ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Hydro-power generation New increase in power generation ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Nuclear power New increase in power generation ?
Energy supply Conventional energy CBM power generation ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Grid-connected wind electric power ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Wind farm power generation ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Renewable energy New increase in power generation ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Biomass gasification power generation and/or heating ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Urban waste incineration for cogeneration ?
Energy supply Pretreatment Coal washing, Briquette, Coal water slurry, Coal gasification ?
31
Technology Needs in China for GHG Emissions
Reduction -2
GHGs Mitigation Options GHGs Mitigation Options GHGs Mitigation Options CTIP NSS ALGAS
Energy end-use Motor High efficiency electric motors ?
Energy end-use Motor Efficiency motor dissemination and application/Speed adjustable motor installed in fan, pump and compressor/Other speed adjustable motor/Set up motor repair center ?
Energy end-use Industrial boiler Efficiency improvements in coal-fired industrial boilers ?
Energy end-use Industrial boiler Fuel pretreatment/Renovation on boiler combustion system/Efficient boiler application/Automatic control of boiler ?
Energy end-use Transportation Options for highway, railway and waterway ?
Energy end-use Residential Develop town gas/Spread and apply green refrigerator/Briquette/Solar heater/Biogas/Biomass gasification ?
Energy end-use Town and village enterprise Coke oven renovation/Brick and tile kiln renovation/Cement kiln renovation ?
Energy end-use Iron and steel sector Pulverized coal injection of blast furnace/Eliminate OH furnace/Eliminate smelting iron for steel making/New build plant-own power generation station/Set up 6 coke dry quenching devices/TRT installed in blast furnace ?
Energy end-use Textile sector Develop cogeneration/Replace boiler/Air conditioner system renovation ?
Sources -Methods for Climate Change Technology
Transfer Needs Assessments and Implementing
Activities, Developing and Transition Country
Approaches and Experiences, Climate Technology
Initiative, March 2002. -The Study on the
Methodologies and its Application of Clean
Development Mechanism in China (March 2002),
National Strategy Studies Program (NSS) -Peoples
Republic of China, Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas
Abatement Strategy (ALGAS, October 1998)
32
Technology Needs in India for GHG Emissions
Reduction
GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options CTIP ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Clean coal Cogeneration, Combined cycle, ISTIG, IGCC ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Energy efficiency ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Rural electrification ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Renewables Small hydro, Wind farm, Decentralized PV ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Biomass technology ? ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Cross cutting options Diesel cogeneration, Heat pumps, High efficiency motors, Waste heat recovery ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Energy efficiency ?
Energy end-use Transport sector CNG car ?
Energy end-use Transport sector CNG bus ?
Energy end-use Transport sector Mass rapid transport system ?
Energy end-use Residential sector CFL (compact fluorescent light) ?
Energy end-use Residential sector LPG stove ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Solar cooker ?
Energy end-use Waste management Solid waste management ?
Sources Cooperative Technology Implementation
Plan (CTIP) for India, March 2002
India, Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement
Strategy (ALGAS, October 1998)
33
Technology Needs in Thailand for GHG Emissions
Reduction
GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options NSS ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Fuel switching for power generation 52 coal, 44 natural gas ? 22 coal, 73 gas ? 8 coal, 45 gas, 45 nuclear ? 8 coal, 45 gas, 45 nuclear ? 3 coal, 10 gas, 80 nuclear) ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Biomass, Biogas ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Cogeneration option ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Increase in oil boiler efficiency ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Application of efficiency motors ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Production process improvement in non-metallic and paper industries ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Boiler feedwater system retrofit, Stream pressure reduction, Steam piping insulation, Blow down system retrofit ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Steam trap retrofit, Boiler retrofit ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Economizer for boiler, Steam leakage reduction, Condensate tank retrofit ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Chiller system retrofit ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Combustion efficiency improvement ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Lighting program of demand side management Air conditioning program of demand side management Refrigerator program of demand side management ? ? ?
Energy end-use Commercial sector Lighting program of demand side management Cooling program of demand side management ? ?
Energy end-use Transport sector Increase fuel economy in automobiles ?
Sources National CDM Strategy Study for The
Kingdom of Thailand, National Strategy Studies
Program (NSS) Thailand, Asia
Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy
(ALGAS, October 1998)
34
Technology Needs in Indonesia for GHG Emissions
Reduction
GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options NSS ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Hydro power, Mini hydro power Gas combined cycle Utilization of flared gas Gas turbine IGCC power plant Nuclear power plant ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Cogeneration HT biomass steam Geothermal Solar thermal Solar photo voltaic power plant Low temperature cogeneration ? ? ? ? ? ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Use of variable speed motor Boiler improvement in palm oil plant Flue gas aided algae cultivation Combustion-air preheat ? ? ? ?
Energy end-use Transport sector Ethanol vehicles, Compressed natural gas vehicles, Electric cars, Fuel cell vehicles ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Substitution of incandescent lamp with CFL (compact fluorescent light) Solar water heater ? ?
Energy end-use Pulp paper sector Waste incineration, Fuel switch ?
Energy end-use Textile sector Cogeneration heating system reconstruction ?
Energy end-use Waste management Improvement of waste management in starch factory ?
Sources National CDM Strategy Study for The
Kingdom of Thailand, National Strategy Studies
Program (NSS) Thailand, Asia
Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy
(ALGAS, October 1998)
35
Technology Needs in Philippines for GHG
Emissions Reduction
GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options CTP ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Photovoltaics for rural development ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Wind energy for rural development ?
Energy supply Conventional energy System loss reduction ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Heat rate improvement ?
Energy supply Conventional energy Natural gas ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Wind, Solar, Biomass ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Efficient industrial motors ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Energy efficient industrial boiler ? ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Efficient transportation system ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Energy efficient appliances and equipment ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Use of CFL (compact fluorescent lamp) ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Efficient air conditioning system ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Efficient refrigerators ?
Sources -Draft Framework for Climate Change
Technology Cooperation in the Philippines (August
1999), Technology Cooperation Agreement Pilot
Project (TCAPP). The program in the Philippines
was initiated under the TCAPP, and continued
under the Cooperative Technology Partnership
(CTP). -Philippines, Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse
Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS, October 1998)
36
Technology Needs in Vietnam for GHG Emissions
Reduction
GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options GHGs mitigation options ALGAS
Energy supply Conventional energy Fuel switching ?
Energy supply Non-conventional energy Wind power construction ?
Energy end-use Industrial sector Highly efficient electric motors ?
Energy end-use Residential sector Improvement of efficiency cooking CFL (compact fluorescent light) Highly efficient air conditioning Highly efficient refrigerator ?
Source Vietnam, Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas
Abatement Strategy (ALGAS, October 1998)
37
Contact Information Global Environment
Technology Development Department NEDO http//www
. nedo.go.jp/get/index.html kankyo_at_nedo.go.jp SHI
GETOMI Norio Email shigetominro_at_nedo.go.jp Tel
81 3 3987-9368