Using State Data to Make a Case: The cases of California

1
Using State Data to Make a CaseThe cases of
California Wisconsin

• Dr. Colleen OBrien
• Director
• The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity
  in Higher Education
• Council
• for
• Opportunity in Education

• Dr. Alberto F. Cabrera
• Department of Educational Policy Leadership
• University of Maryland

2
Policy questions under examination

• Readiness for college
• Does GEAR UP have an impact on middle school
  students preparedness for college?
• Financial aid
• Is financial aid packaging stable across time?
• Are all types of financial aid equally effective
  in promoting persistence in college?

3
Policy question

• Does GEAR UP have an impact on middle school
  students preparedness for college?

4
An example of a longitudinal perspective for
assessing GEAR UP

• Unit of analysis
• Cohorts of 7th graders attending 180 California
  public schools in the fall of 1999.
• Cohorts followed from 6th grade to 8th grade
• Variables
• Dependent mean scaled scores on the Stanford-9
  tests in reading and mathematics
• Independent School characteristics

Analytical Design for CA and National APRs
5
Growth Trajectories among Californian Schools
1999-2001

• Across all schools, reading and math scores
  improved
• Reading
• 6th to 7th grade 21.3 points
• 6th to 8th grade 30.5 points
• Mathematics
• 6th to 7th grade 21.4 points
• 6th to 8th grade 24.7 points

6
Examining the impact of financial aid packaging

• State-based database
• University of Wisconsin System Longitudinal data
  base.
• Subjects
• Random sample of the freshman class of 1979.
• Research design
• Longitudinal tracking of changes in financial
  aid packaging during four years of college for
  the same student (1979-82).
• Financial aid
• Extracted from institutional records.
• Method of analyses
• Markov analyses

7
Making sense of Markov analysis

• Rows represent student aid packages students
  belonged at in their freshman year
• Columns show their classification in their next
  three years of college.
• Cells along the diagonal indicate the probability
  of maintaining the same student aid packaged
  across four years of college
• Off diagonal cells indicate the probability of
  changing financial aid packaging.

8
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grants Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant
Loan
Work Study (WS)
Grant Loan
Grant WS
Loan WS
All
No Aid
Stability in financial aid packaging
9
What is the probability of receiving only grants
across 4 years of college?
10
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grant Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant .204 .128 .005 .198 .039 .010 .037 .189 .190
Loan
Work Study (WS)
Grant Loan
Grant WS
Loan WS
All
No Aid
11
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grant Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant .204 .128 .005 .198 .039 .010 .037 .189 .190
Loan
Work Study (WS)
Grant Loan
Grant WS
Loan WS
All
No Aid
12
What is the probability of receiving only loans
across 4 years of college?
13
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grant Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant .204 .128 .005 .198 .039 .010 .037 .189 .190
Loan .036 .392 .005 .100 .006 .018 .023 .248 .172
Work Study (WS)
Grant Loan
Grant WS
Loan WS
All
No Aid
14
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grant Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant .204 .128 .005 .198 .039 .010 .037 .189 .190
Loan .036 .392 .005 .100 .006 .018 .023 .248 .172
Work Study (WS)
Grant Loan
Grant WS
Loan WS
All
No Aid
15

1. To what extent is financial aid packaging stable
   across time?
2. To what extent are all types of financial aid
   equally effective in promoting persistence in
   college?

16
Financial Aid Packaging Across Time
Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging Post-freshman year student aid packaging
Freshman year Student aid package Grant Loan WS Grant Loan Grant WS Loan WS All No Aid Dropout
Grant .204 .128 .005 .198 .039 .010 .037 .189 .190
Loan .036 .392 .005 .100 .006 .018 .023 .248 .172
Work Study (WS) .081 .073 .166 .081 .162 .037 .052 .232 .116
Grant Loan .081 .059 .003 .466 .032 .012 .105 .074 .168
Grant WS .136 .025 .005 .147 .261 .020 .188 .077 .141
Loan WS .040 .098 .022 .146 .064 .115 .231 .185 .099
All .037 .021 .002 .242 .129 .020 .364 .041 .144
No Aid .019 .071 .002 .020 .004 .003 .006 .687 .188
17
Examples of promising State-based databases

• State of Washington
• Texas
• Wisconsin
• Nevada

18
(No Transcript)
19
Thank you!
20

• Additional Material for Questions Answers

21
Potential research designs using state-based
databases
Research Design (Time Frame) Preparation for College Transition Point Preparation for College Transition Point College Experiences Transition Point College Experiences Transition Point Graduation Post Degree
Research Design (Time Frame) 8th Grade 12th Grade Freshman Year Junior Year Graduation Post Degree
Cross-sectional 2003 2003 2003 2003 2005-6
Longitudinal 2010
Longitudinal 2005 2014
Longitudinal 2004 2006 2015
Longitudinal 2007 2008 2010 2017
Dr. Cabrera
22
References

• Adelman, C. (1999). Answers in the tool box
  Academic intensity, attendance patterns, and
  bachelors degree attainment. Document PLLI
  1999-8021. Washington DC U.S. Department of
  Education, Office of Educational Research and
  Improvement.
• Bensimon, E. M., Polkinghorne, D. E., Bauman, G.
  L. Vallejo, E. (2004). Doing research that
  makes a difference. Journal of Higher Education,
  75(1), pp. 104-126.
• Cabrera, A. F., Burkum, K. R. La Nasa, S. M.
  (2005). Pathways to a four year degree
  Determinants of transfer and degree completion.
  In A. Seidman (Ed.). College Student Retention A
  Formula for Student Success. ACE/Praeger series
  on Higher Education.
• Cabrera, A. F., Prabhu, R., Deil-Amen, R.,
  Terenzini, P. T., Lee, C., Franklin, R. F., Jr.
  (2006). Increasing the college preparedness of
  at-risk students. Journal of Latinos and
  Education, 5(2), 79-97

23
References

• Stampen, J. O. Cabrera, A. F. (1988). The
  targeting and packaging of student aid and its
  effects on attrition. Economics of Education
  Review, 7, 29-46.
• Stampen, J. O. Cabrera, A. F. (1986). Exploring
  the effects of student aid on attrition. The
  Journal of Financial Aid, 16, 28-40.