The pattern is new in every moment: observations on issues affecting libraries and archives within the framework of the 2003 OCLC environmental scan

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The pattern is new in every moment
observations on issues affecting libraries and
archives within the framework ofthe 2003 OCLC
environmental scan

• Lorcan Dempsey
• VP Research and Chief Strategist
• Library and Archives Canada, 4 May 2004

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• The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan

• Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review
• This year
• Worldwide scan
• User perspective
• In format for sharing with membership

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Pattern recognition
We have no future because our present is too
volatile. We have only risk management. The
spinning of the given moments scenarios.
Pattern recognition
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Worldwide Scan

• 100 people interviewed

• 29 countries selected
• 60 of the worlds population
• 85 of worlds gross domestic product

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The words of things entangleand confuseWallace
Stevens
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Overview
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Scan content
Social
Technical
Economic
I will use this framework to make some general
observations
Research and learning
Library (memory organizations)
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Social
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Trends

• The Amazoogle effect
• Generations
• The fabric of collaboration
• Value

The future is here. It's justnot evenly
distributed yetWilliam Gibson
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Internet search answer
NASA Quest Pregunte a un expero Schools Online
Project ScienceLine Scientific-American Ask the
Expert Ammdoc.com Buscamed Eclevelandclinic.com Ec
onsults.partners.org Enviar pregunta Expertdoc.net
Findcancerexperts.com Go Ask Alice Mdexpert.com P
hysician referral center Poser une
question Pregunte a RxExpress Ask Joan of
Art National Museum of Art Reference Desk Ask
Made iVillage AskLISA Laboratorio de estudos
urbanos
Abuzz Advice Trader Answers.com Ask An Expert
Sources.com AskERIC AskJeevesAskVRD.org Ask the
Old Buzzard CNNs Ask an Expert Page Consejos
practicos Google Answers Internet Public Library
Ask A Question Keen.com Pregunta a los
expertos Taxcafe Wondir Ask Auntie
Nolo AskBAR Experts.com Poser un
question Ask-A-Geologist As Ask Volcanologist Ask
Dr. Math Ask Dr. Universe Ask Shamu How Things
Work MAD Scientist Network
Social landscape
OCLC compiled from various sources (May 2004)
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Microcontent
Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 -
1Billion Includes ring tones, logos, screen
savers, micro games, etc.
By 2007, Amazon.coms revenue from
microcontent sales will exceed 500million. (0
.6 probability)

• Top Ten Tech Searches 2003
• Ringtones
• Digital Cameras
• Mobile Phones
• HDTV
• MP3 Players
• iPod
• TiVo
• Plasma TV
• DVD-R
• Camcorders

OCLC compiled from various sources (August
2003) http//search.yahoo.com/top2003
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British Library Sound Archive
People like to hear birdsong because they want
to relive happy moments,' suggests Ranft, who has
compiled and produced the albums for the library.
'They can relive a sunny spring afternoon or the
really joyous moment of listening to a dawn
chorus.

• This week the archive is releasing two new
  birdsong albums, and soaraway sales are
  anticipated.

The Observer
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The Amazoogle effect

• Three perceived attributes?
• Comprehensive
• Accessible
• Immediate gratification

The net generation doesnt love a wallEric
Childress
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The fabric of collaboration Social software
The collaboration technology fabric
OCLC compiled from various sources (August 2003)
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Trends
Social landscape
Technology is what has been invented since you
were bornAlan Kay

• Net generation
• Self-sufficiency
• Seamlessness
• Abundance

• Service
• Increasingly called to define value against the
  Amazoogle horizon
• Opportunity and challenge

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Economic
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Economiclandscape

• Changes in funding of the public good
• Normal cycles or permanent changes?
• Sources and uses of funds

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Library spending
U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent
nearly 75 of the total estimated 2000 worldwide
library spending 29 billion
LibEcon (August 2003)
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Uses of library funds
Staff 53
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Materials stock 27
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Other 17
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ARL libraries 2001-02
eContent/subscriptions 3
Worldwide average for libraries in sample
countries 2000-01
LibEcon (August 2003) ARL (2003)
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Trends

• Questioning the value of the public good
• Education
• Public services
• Focus on impact and value

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Value
Professionaldiscourse
Culturalheritage
Learning
Political discourse
Access to information
Securing the historical and scholarly record
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Technical
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Technology landscape

• A generic technology review

• Where we looked and who we consulted
• Technology periodicals / publications
• Leading technology vendors
• Top technology analysts

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Trends

• Ambient connectivity and embedded computation
• Unplug and play
• Coping with abundance

• Open source
• Convenience vs privacy

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A new era ambient and embedded
Adapted from Gartner Inc. 2003
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Ambient and embedded

• In an electronically nomadicised world I have
  become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP
  address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad
  hoc mobile network.
• Those who just want a simpler life may choose to
  unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But
  for this particular early 21st Century nodular
  subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am
  part of the networks and the networks are part of
  me. I am visible to Google. I link therefore I
  am.

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The technology I most want is
a PDA device that contains all the information
I need to do my work. High School Student
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Unplug and play

• Software pieces
• Web services
• Distributed

Common services

• Google API
• Amazon API
• In 2002, 6.2 of Amazon revenues, or 246
  million, came from using Web services to become
  an e-commerce platform.

Content services
Application services
The User
Presentation services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
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How to organize a newabundance?Role of current
approaches?
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Oranges Apples
Collection
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Abundance

• Structured and unstructured data
• Manual and automated practices
• Relevence of intellectual investment in
  controlled vocabularies

• Complex object management
• Richer information models

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Research and learning
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Research learning landscape

• Patterns of formal research and learning changing
• Science and data curation
• Scholarly publishing in transition
• E-learning

• Learning for life

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Learning for work

• Learn, adapt, change
• In 2001, US23 billion
• In Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of
  top 10 are e-learning companies
• 400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

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Learning for life

• Equalizing access
• Community, identity,memory
• A third place
• Social exchange and cohesion

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scholarly information flow?
Discovery, harvesting
aggregators
Harvesting
data analysis, transformation, mining,modeling
Research e-science
Deposit,self archiving
Repositories
Validation
Publish, discovery
Data creation, capture and gatheringlab
experiments, fieldwork, surveys, grids, media,
peer-reviewed journals,conferences,
AI services
Adapted from Liz Lyon
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The Australian Research Information
Infrastructure projects will improve the
infrastructure for managing and accessing the
outputs of Australian research. The National
Library of Australia is an active participant in
these projects. The Library will contribute its
expertise and recent experience in areas such as
digital collection management, digital
preservation, persistent identifiers, resource
discovery services and standards for descriptions
of access policies. The projects will also
strengthen and focus the Library's collaboration
with the higher education sector.
Warwick Cathro, CNI, April 2004
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A recent LJ article reported the results of a
study in which librarians and scientists were
asked to name the top three most reliable online
services

• librarians named
• ScienceDirect,
• ISI's Web of Science,
• Medline.

• Scientists, on the other hand, named
• Google,
• Yahoo!, and
• PubMed.

Quoted by Carol Tenopir, Infotech, 4/1/2004
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Institution
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Interviews

• Libraries should reallocate positions to newer
  kinds of jobs digital scholarship, open source
  projects, etc.

Librarians cannot change user behavior and so
need to meet the user.
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Collections grid
stewardship
high
low
low
uniqueness
high
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Some issues for libraries
Does structure of costs reflect new
roles? Reallocation of resources?
Digital resource management Skills
Mainstreaming special collections Engagement with
research and learning Grant funding
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An example of content domains in a University
Setting (P. Conway)
e-Research
e-Teaching
Converted _at_ Duke
Duke Acquired Formats
Web Gateway
Duke Licensed Content
Managed Duke Assets
e-Records
e-Publishing
Picture by Paul Conway, Duke University
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Libraries, archives, museumssimilarity and
difference

• Digital asset management
• A major RD agenda
• Digital preservation
• Selective exposure and repurposing
• Exhibition
• Narrative
• Pedagogy
• Making common sense
• People, places and things

• Granularity of attention
• Informational/evidential/educational
• Atomic/transparent
• Provenance and context
• History of use
• Published and unique
• Processing model
• Level of industrialization
• Woods and trees
• Hierarchical / item
• Collection level description

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Interconnected systems environment

• More complex systems environment
• Collection management systems, portal, resource
  sharing, resolver, ..
• digital asset management,
• More complex institutional systems environment
• Learning management system, university portal,
  local government portal,
• Growing use of shared services
• Directory, identity management, trust management,
  
• Major issue is not integration of resources with
  each other, but rather integration of resources
  with the working and learning lives of their
  users

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And finally
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The public sphere

• Libraries archives and museums
• Joining generations
• Informing positions
• Securing the integrity of evidence

• National institutions
• For everybody and for nobody
• Values and value

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Implications

• A turning point
• Engagement with research, learning and living in
  new ways
• Demonstrate impact and value
• Skills
• Develop practices which will continue to uphold
  values

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Download and read at
www.oclc.org/membership/escan
Print copies available at same URL 15 to cover
print and postage
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The pattern is new
The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies For
the pattern is new in every moment