Dynamic resilience in landscape exploitation systems Cameron Fletcher, David Hilbert, Andrew Higgins, Peter Roebeling, John Ludwig

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Dynamic resilience in landscape exploitation
systems Cameron Fletcher, David Hilbert, Andrew
Higgins, Peter Roebeling, John Ludwig

• CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
• CSIRO Complex Systems Science
• Emerging Science Area

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Synopsis

• Important points
• We have created a dynamic, generic model of
  landscape exploitation systems
• We analyse the topology of state space to
  summarize properties across all systems
• We aim to analyse these systems at multiple
  scales, across multiple objectives
• Definition
• Landscape exploitation systems are systems in
  which human beings harvest a renewable natural
  resource using human-made capital to create an
  economic good. They are therefore very general,
  including hunting-gathering, swidden agriculture,
  grazing and intensive agriculture systems.

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Outline

• Synopsis
• ? Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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Motivation
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• ? Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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The predator-prey analogy
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A model exploitation system
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• ? Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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A range of generic systems
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• ? Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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The local model
Consuming natural capital
Natural capital growth Intrinsic growth - Consumption
Human-made capital growth Reinvestment - Depreciation
Natural capital growth Intrinsic growth - Consumption
Human-made capital growth f(Consumption) - Depreciation
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The local model
Intrinsic growth
Consumption
Savings rate
Depreciation
Production
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Making a choice
Reinvestment Savings Fraction x Profit
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• ? State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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Space-space topology
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Space-space topology
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Space-space topology
State space topology
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• ? First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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First results simple strategies
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Results
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Results
Economic (solid), basin size (dashed) and return
time (dotted) performance
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• ? Multi-objective optimization
• A spatial mosaic

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Multi-objective optimization

• Multi-objective optimization
• We can investigate dynamic qualities like
  resilience
• We can investigate traditional measures like
  profits
• Is there a formal way to combine out
  investigations of both?

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Results Multi-objective optimization
Trade-offs between dynamic and economic
performance
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Outline

• Synopsis
• Motivation
• Predator-prey analogy
• Exploitation systems
• Model structure
• State space topology
• First results
• Multi-objective optimization
• ? A spatial mosaic

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Spatial systems

• Spatial systems
• Region built up of independent farms, with
  independent exploiters, each with their own
  management strategies and goals
• Management strategies and goals are functions of
  economic and social forces across the region, and
  they change with time
• How does the behaviour of the total system emerge
  from the many diverse local behaviours?

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Spatial systems and multi-scale optimization

• Multi-scale optimization
• Across a spatial system, each exploiter will
  manage towards different optima
• In addition, the global system will exert some
  pressure to find a social optimum
• Can we capture this multi-scale optimization
  using the tools we have developed?

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Thank You

• CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
• Name Cameron Fletcher
• Title Ecological Modeller
• Phone [phone]
• Email Cameron.Fletcher_at_csiro.au
• Web www.csiro.au

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Name David
Hilbert Title Ecological Modeller Phone 61 7
4091 8835 Email David.Hilbert_at_csiro.au Web www.csi
ro.au
Contact CSIRO Phone [phone] 9545
2176 Email enquiries_at_csiro.au Web www.csiro.au