Regional and Global Preparedness for Global Warming Consequences

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Regional and Global Preparedness for Global
Warming Consequences
Kentaro Tamura, Ph.D. United Nations
Environmental Programme (UNEP)

• ASEAN Day for Disaster Management (ADDM) Seminar
  Challenges Ahead and the Way Forward
• 24-25 September 2007
• Bangkok, Thailand

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Outline

• Problem Statement
• Mitigation and Adaptation
• Asias Vulnerability to Climate Change
• Global Preparedness
• International Climate Regime
• Adaptation Work in UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol
• Regional Preparedness
• Issues and Status of Mainstreaming in Asia
• Way Forward

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Part 1 Problem Statement
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Mitigation and Adaptation

• Prompt and serious efforts to reduce GHG
  emissions can mitigate the magnitude of negative
  impacts of climate change.
• However,
• Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot
  avoid severe impacts of climate changes in next
  few decades.
• Thus,
• We urgently need to
• avoid the unmanageable (through mitigation), and
• manage the unavoidable (through adaptation).

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Goal of Adaptation

• To improve capacity to cope with
• Current climate hazards (e.g., floods, droughts,
  cyclones)
• Established changes in climate (e.g., increasing
  temperature, decreasing precipitation)
• Specific anticipated changes in climate (e.g., 30
  cm sea-level rise by 2025)
• Unspecified anticipated changes (e.g., decreased
  revenues from tourism at the coastal zone or
  mountainous area)

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Asias vulnerability to climate change (1) (SPM
WG II, IPCCC, 2007)

• Climate change is projected to impinge on
  sustainable development of most developing
  countries of Asia.
• Freshwater availability particularly in large
  river basins is projected to decrease. It could
  adversely affect more than a billion people in
  the 2050s.
• Increase in agricultural water demand by 6-10 or
  more for every 1 centigrade rise in temperature

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Asias vulnerability to climate change (2)

• The risk of hunger is projected to remain very
  high in several countries. Crop yields could
  decrease up to 30 in Central and South Asia.
• Coastal areas will be at greatest risk due to
  increased flooding from the sea and in some
  mega-deltas flooding from the rivers.
• Loss of 2500 km2 mangroves in Asia with 1m sea
  level rise

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Asias Vulnerability to Climate Change (3)
Percentage of Estimates
Source CSIRO, 2006
Based on 186 studies
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Asias vulnerability to climate change (4)

• The design and implementation of adaptation
  measures to address the needs of vulnerable
  countries has become more and more pressing.
• ? A key challenge
• How and to what extent have international
  community and Asian countries been preparing for
  addressing climate change consequences?

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Part 2 Global Preparedness
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International Climate Regime (1)

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Review scientific research and offer assessments
  of climate change and its impacts
• 4 Assessment Reports
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  (UNFCCC)
• Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts
  to tackle the challenge posed by climate change
• Near universal membership of 191 countries having
  ratified
• Ultimate goal is to prevent dangerous human
  intervention with the climate system
• Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC
• Legally-binding emission reduction commitments
  for Annex I Parties (developed countries)
• First commitment period (2008-2012)
• Discussions on post-2012 regime

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International Climate Regime (2)

• Group of Eight (G8) Summit
• Climate change became a prime agenda for the
  Gleneagles Summit (2005)
• Gleneagles Dialogue
• Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
  Climate (APP)
• Launched in 2005
• US-led initiative, consisting of 6 countries
  (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and
  U.S.) producing half of the worlds GDP
• technology-oriented public-private partnership
• Various multilateral, regional and bilateral
  initiatives

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Climate Regime at a Glance
1988 1990 1992 1994 1995
1997 2001 2004
IPCC
FAR
SAR
TAR
US-led Initiatives
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Climate Regime at a Glance
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012
AR4
IPCC
Follow-up?
Other forums
EU-ETS (Phase I)
EU-ETS (Phase II)
Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
Climate (APP)
Other multilateral / bilateral / local initiatives
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Adaptation-related Articles in UNFCCC (1)

• Article 4.1 (b), (e), and (f)
• Commitments for all Parties consider the impacts
  of climate change in social, economic and
  environmental policies and actions.
• Article 4.1 (g), (h), and (j)
• Requests for all Parties to cooperate, exchange
  and communicate information related to
  implementation
• Articles 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.9
• Funding to assist developing countries in meeting
  various commitments of Article 4.1
• Funding incremental costs of developing
  countries implementation of adaptation measures

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Adaptation-related Articles in UNFCCC (2)

• Articles 4.8 and 4.9
• Support for small island developing countries,
  countries with low-lying coastal areas, countries
  prone to natural disasters, drought and
  desertification etc. and LDCs
• Article 12.3
• Request for developed countries to incorporate
  details of measures taken under Article 4.3, 4.4,
  and 4.5 in their National Communications.
• Article 21
• Global Environment Facility (GEF) serves as the
  financial mechanism of the UNFCCC for both
  mitigation and adaptation.

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Evolving Focus on Adaptation (1)

• Compared with mitigation, adaptation is much less
  developed as an intl policy response in various
  ways.
• Definition
• Policy objectives
• Standard measures
• Base year/baseline
• Legal, institutional structures

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Evolving Focus on Adaptation (2)

• However,
• Emergence of adaptation as a policy priority at
  the intl level
• 2001 Third Assessment Report of IPCC
• Climate change impacts are already becoming
  evident.
• 2001 (COP7) Creation of funds
• Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) to finance
  both adaptation and mitigation activities
• Least Development Countries Fund (LDCF) to
  finance the preparation and implementation of
  national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)
• Adaptation Fund to finance adaptation project
  and programmes in developing countries ratifying
  the Kyoto Protocol

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Evolving Focus on Adaptation (3)

• 2002 (COP8) Delhi Declaration on Climate Change
  and Sustainable Development
• Adaptationis of high priority for all countries.
  
• 2004 (COP10) Buenos Aires programme of work on
  adaptation and response measures
• 2006 (COP12) Nairobi work program on impacts,
  vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change

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Evolving Focus on Adaptation (4)

• A series of modest steps in terms of efforts to
  improve understanding of vulnerability, impacts
  and adaptation
• A question of how to implement and finance
  adaptation projects remains as a challenge.
• Investments needed for adaptation are likely to
  be tens of billions of dollars per year several
  decades from now.
• Less likely to raise sufficient amounts,
  especially if contributions are voluntary.

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Adaptation Costs Some Estimates

• Costs of climate-proofing investments in
  developing countries USD 9-41 bn/yr (World Bank)
• Minimum costs of adaptation USD 50 bn/yr (Oxfam)
• Additional costs
• Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives 7.5
  bn/yr
• Scaling up urgent adaptation needs 8-33 bn
  (total)
• Other hidden costs
• USD 28-67 bn in 2030 (Smith, UNFCCC Dialogue on
  Long-term Cooperative Action)

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Financial Availability in the Current Regime
Status as of April 2007 Type of committ Total funds mobilized Unpaid contribu-tions and pledges Cumula-tive funds collected
1. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) voluntary US62.1m US9.1m US53.0m
2. Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund) voluntary US115.8m US53.6m US62.2m
3. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA funded by GEF Trust Fund) voluntary US50m US50m
4. Adaptation Fund A share of proceeds from CDM projects Best estimate of US450m by 2012
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Part 3 Regional Preparedness
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How to prepare? Mainstreaming

• What is mainstreaming?
• Integration of concerns on adaptation to current
  and future impacts of climate change in on-going
  sectoral and development planning and
  decision-making
• Why is mainstreaming necessary?
• To ensure that current projects are no longer at
  risk from climate change
• To ensure that future projects are consciously
  aimed at reducing vulnerability
• To use resources effectively and efficiently
• To ensure consistency between national/local
  priorities and adaptation needs

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Approaches for Mainstreaming

• Entry points
• National Communications, NAPAs
• Incorporating adaptation concerns in national
  Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP),
  National Environmental Action Plans (NEAP), and
  Millennium Development Goal (MDG) plans
• Integrating in national economic planning and
  budgetary processes
• Strengthening coordination on adaptation issues
  among sectors
• Linking adaptation strategies with disaster risk
  management

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Progress on Mainstreaming

• Most National Communications are strongly skewed
  towards GHG inventories/mitigation.
• NAPA process in some LDCs (e.g., Bangladesh)
  seems to have served as catalyst in mainstreaming
  adaptation concerns at least in planning stages
• Development agencies have just begun to support
  mainstreaming efforts (WB, GTZ, OECD, JBIC etc)

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Coverage on adaptation policies and measures as
reflected by number of pages in National
Communications of selected Asian countries
Source Ancha Srinivasan 2006
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Mainstreaming Gaps and Concerns (1)

• Lack of awareness among policy makers about
  climate change impacts and their economic and
  social implications in each sector.
• Mismatch between the temporal and spatial scales
  of climate change projections and information
  needs of sector planners
• Very few climate models can predict rainfall
  patterns in Asian countries with certainty or on
  timescales relevant to policy makers

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Mainstreaming Gaps and Concerns (2)

• Institutional fragmentation and resulting
  communication barriers among ministries
• Different ministries are involved in
• vulnerability and adaptation assessment,
• disaster risk management,
• rural development,
• poverty alleviation, and
• land-use regulation
• Lack of ownership of an adaptive approach to
  future risks due to donor-driven projects

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So, what is the statue of preparedness?

• Increasing attention has begun to be paid to
  adaptation, while the current international
  climate regime is largely geared toward
  mitigation so far.
• To move forward, several challenges remain.
• Negotiation challenges
• Financing challenges
• Mainstreaming challenges

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Way Forward (1)

• Climate regime should enhance the focus on
  adaptation to a similar level, if not more, as
  that of mitigation.
• Mobilising additional resources for adaptation
• Building human and institutional capacity
• Strengthening support for more detailed
  vulnerability assessment
• Practical, on-the-ground demonstrations on
  promising mainstreaming options, rather than
  theoretical approaches
• Supporting efforts to document such
  demonstrations as a way to promote capacity
  building
• Database on Local Coping strategy at UNFCCC site
  http//maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/

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Way Forward (2)

• UNFCCC and other organisations to play catalytic
  role in exchange of experiences, and in
  facilitating the development of region-wide and
  sector-wide approaches
• Promoting synergies among climate, development
  and disaster risk management mechanisms to
  develop seamless, efficient efforts to deal with
  climate hazards
• International level
• Domestic level

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Thank You.
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Projected Emissions from Annex I and Non-Annex I
Parties and Stabilization Paths
Note Calculated by AIM
Large reduction in global GHG emissions are
necessary.
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All Sectors and regions have the potential to
contribute