Project 2030 Update The Aging of Minnesota

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Project 2030 UpdateThe Aging of Minnesotas
Population

• Implications for Action
• October 2002

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Project 2030 Update

• Presentation
• Demographic realities
• Implications
• Action needed to meet challenges

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Minnesotas Population by Age Group Percent
Change 1990 - 2000
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Minnesotans 65 will more than double between
2000 and 2050, rising to 1.6 million.
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Minnesotans 65 remain in the labor force at
higher than expected rates.
Source 2000 projections and 2000 Census
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The Good News

• 1.3 million Minnesotans 65 by 2030.
• Nearly 25 of the population.
• Largest untapped human resource in the state.
• Individuals are continuing to work in
  retirement.
• Vital Aging will be in vogue.

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Minnesotans age 85 will more than triple in the
next 50 years.
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The number of Minnesotans 65 living alone with
more than double between 2000 and 2030.
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Families provide 95 of all care needed by older
persons. One-third of boomers will not have
children available.
Who provides care for frail older persons in 2000
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Family support will be reduced by 2030.
Friends, neighbors and voluntary agencies must
assume bigger role.
Who provides care for frail older persons in 2030?
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Caregiver ratios are already high in many
counties, and will grow higher.
Caregiver Ratio number 85/number females 45-64
(2000 Census)
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The Not So Good News

• 165,000 Minnesotans 85 in 2030.
• Increase to 315,000 by 2050.
• A large number of these people will need
  long-term care.
• Traditional sources of long-term care will be
  overwhelmed.
• Families and workers will be in short supply.

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U.S. Personal Savings Rate1930 - 2001 declines
to record lows.
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Percent of elderly with sufficient income at
normal retirement age to cover long-term care
costs
Figures are for Kansas
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The Bad News

• 265,000 persons 65 will be women living alone
  with few family and personal resources.
• Two-thirds of these women will not have adequate
  income to pay for health and long-term care costs.

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Project 2030 Update

• Implications
• Smaller families will need help to care for older
  relatives.
• Large numbers of older persons without families
  available will need assistance with long-term
  care.
• Public sector will be overwhelmed.
• Other sectors will increase their role.

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Project 2030 Update

• 2030 Themes
• Maximize peoples ability to meet their own needs
  and age in place.
• Make all communities age-friendly through
  physical design, strong social connections and
  integrated services.
• Make creative use of aging population and invest
  in young people.

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Project 2030 Update

• What can we do as individuals?
• Prepare for our own retirement and old age.
• Meet our obligations as caregivers.
• Support voluntary groups serving elderly (because
  public sector will be overwhelmed).

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Project 2030 Update

• What can government do?
• Federal programs are essential foundations for
  income and health care for the elderly.
• Support informal networks of care and
  age-friendly communities.
• Maintain safety net for those with inadequate
  personal resources.

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Project 2030 Update

• What can employers do?
• Promote flexibility in workplace to accommodate
  changing definitions of work and retirement.
• Review benefits in light of aging work force.
• Consider eldercare and employee-paid long-term
  care insurance.

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Project 2030 Update

• What can voluntary agencies do?
• They will be called upon to be family
  substitute for many elderly.
• They are key to states leadership in social
  structures that work.
• Role must increase if public sector reduces
  benefits and eligibility.

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Outcomes in 2030

• Individual preparation
• Supportive communities
• Supportive employers
• Partnerships